Andy Xie: Inflation is faster than you think. Gold Oil

Xie。 Inflation will come to Andy Xie, independent economist and Rose Stone consultant, Chongqing Evening News the square asset price bubbles have formed recently, said Andy Xie, an independent economist and Rose Stone consultant, "This round of inflation is coming sooner than I expected." He said the price of crude oil last December was the lowest of $32 a barrel, and UBS even predicted that 2009 crude oil might see $20 trillion.　　In just 3 months, however, oil prices have risen nearly one-fold in just two months. This round of oil price rebound has not been explained by the relationship between demand and supply, which mainly reflects the drive of financial demand. Commodities as inflation-resistant assets have been renewed, as countries have followed a sweeping stimulus package that has led to inflationary expectations.　　The influx of money into the oil market exchange funds directly boosted the price of crude oil futures. Xie said inflation came faster than he had imagined. It was thought that when the economy was slightly up, inflation expectations would be reflected in commodity prices, but they couldn't wait to rise. Inflation in the US and China has emerged. "The average person thinks that when the economy is depressed there will be no inflation, this time can be big went money machine, but I think this logic is wrong." "The sharp rise in oil prices in the 70 's led to a high inflation and a 10-year stagnation in developed countries, while growth was weak and unemployment rose." In developing countries, economic stagnation and inflation are also common phenomena.　　So it is not necessarily that the economy is overheating and supply cannot keep up with demand before it leads to inflation. If policymakers are not fully aware of this, he argues, the insistence on increased liquidity will lead the global economy to a dangerous path.　　Now it seems that the world economy has slipped into a 10-year "stagflation" without suspense.　　Krugman。 The opposition is worried about inflation as "absurd panic" 5th, Krugman urged the U.S. government to introduce a second round of stimulus measures to improve the economy, and said the budget deficit is not to be cut.　　Mr Krugman also dismissed the idea that such an amount of stimulus might lead to inflation. There have been public reminders that hyperinflation is in sight. Mr Krugman opposes that.　　The fear, he suspects, is at least partly a political rather than an economic one. He said the Federal Reserve recently bought large amounts of debt from the government and the private sector and paid for it with additional reserves from credit banks. In normal times, this can lead to high inflation. But now is not the normal period. The banks did not lend the excess reserves, they just sat on the reserves and, in effect, the banks were returning the money to the Fed.　　So the Fed is not really printing money at all. He believes that these actions will not cause inflation, the current debate on inflation is "absurd inflation panic." Krugman also said that even if federal debt could beCan rise to more than 100% of GDP, and America will not create inflation to reduce its debt. Over the past 20 years, Belgium, Canada and, of course, Japan have experienced debt over 100% of GDP, he said. America's debt in World War II also exceeded 120% of GDP.　　However, in the above example, no one country's government uses inflation to solve the problem.　　He argues that the current fear of creating inflation is a political reason for some economists to intimidate the Obama administration into abandoning its efforts to save the economy. Andy Xie: It is expected to be still in 2010 at the bottom of the Volkswagen Securities newspaper Xu Xian the "Volkswagen Securities": You have warned that the second wave of the financial crisis will come.　　But the economic data is now warm, and some people even think the economy has begun a V-shaped reversal, do you still insist that the 2010 financial crisis can be bottomed out? Andy Xie: Yes. The data rally now seen is mainly a number of productive figures, and the final demand side, such as retail and employment data, has yet to see signs of a significant upturn or rebound, and the latest data from the US services sector has fallen, worse than expected.　　The economy is expected to meet at the end of 2010. Volkswagen Securities: America and Europe are printing money, commodity prices are soaring and global equities are rising.　　Do you think this is the economy coming out of deflation or is inflation approaching? Andy Xie: The fear of inflation and the fear of a weaker dollar. Investors do not want to hold the dollar, but instead replace it with assets.　　In the run-up to the rally, the dollar fell 10%, and the interest rate on US Treasuries rose from 3% to 3.6%, a rise of 20%, something never before. The Public Securities journal: You said recently that the world economy is entering a stagnant era. However, now domestic CPI, PPI or negative.　　How to understand? Andy Xie: This is compared with the same period last year, when the price of crude oil is still very high. The chain is rising.　　Our focus is on current trends, not last year, and the trend is now rising. Volkswagen Securities: You recently suggested that China sell US Treasuries and move to U.S. equities.　　Is that a good idea for the U.S. economy's recovery? Andy Xie: It's late now.　　When I originally wrote the article, I think the city net rate is 1.5 times times below can change, but now high, not. Andy Xie: In two or three years bullish gold oil public securities newspaper, "the Public Securities newspaper": The current real estate market seems to have passed the most difficult period, Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai and other first-tier city housing prices are rising, what is your judgment on the real estate industry?　　Can you invest in real estate stocks? Andy Xie: Fear of inflation is one of the drivers of rising house prices. Also: The original seven or eight months of housing sales very depressed, accumulated a part of the rigid demand, coupled with the mortgage rate drop, house prices have also fallen, triggering demand release. China's house is always surplus, now there are more than 2 billion square meters of land will be built, but the statistics will never be clear。 Because the local government wants to carry on the land finance, the leader several years also wants to change, therefore their interest chain is "sells the land-constructs, the promotion gdp--the achievement, promotes to leave".　　Real estate stocks are now riskier than earnings.　　"Volkswagen Securities newspaper": The new energy industry this year by the world's hot, you think is a hype, or really can bring the fourth industrial revolution? Andy Xie: Now it's mostly a financial subsidy. The Industrial revolution of the past did not need state subsidy, and the competitiveness rose very fast, but also can produce great benefits. Of course, perhaps the industry will come out on its own, but it is still not visible, but only in the country's money, other people's money to play. Whether solar energy, or wind power generation, are unstable, the requirements of the grid is very high, can only be regarded as "gap products."　　I'm not optimistic about the industry for one or two years. Volkswagen Securities: You've been bullish on gold since the financial crisis broke out.　　At present, there is an optimistic view in the market that the future gold can rise to 2000 dollars/ounce, do you agree with this view? Andy Xie: In the long run, it is possible for gold to rise to 2000 dollars/ounce in two or three years, and I prefer gold and oil, because there are inflation, and there are too many central bank currencies. This is a trend, but not all the way up to the end, in the process will be repeated, so, short term, up too much can not be chased. Bullish on a variety, are in a large callback after the purchase, the risk is relatively low. Rising faster means that there is hot money in the inflow, there will be outflow, it is easy to lead to short-term losses.