Auto Autonomy: The car rushes to the 2.0 era

of five cars and traffic

Editor's note: Steven Sinofsky is the head of Microsoft's former Windows department and is now a Andreessen Horowitz partner at Harvard Business School. He said the traffic jams and parking difficulties prompted him to write this article. By observing, he summed up five major changes in cars and traffic, and said the changes would have a structural challenge for existing car players, and that the 2.0 era of disruptive auto industry would come at a faster pace. Readers who are interested in subversive innovation can also refer to the four stages of his subversion.

For much of the 20th century, the auto industry was a representative of the American Dream. It is the source of millions of of people's livelihood, many of the modern management rules are from here, while the car and culture are often intertwined, and many urban life styles are inseparable from the car.

The car industry has experienced many crises and is still one of the pillars of America's economy, and it is because of this that the car industry's subversion is more fascinating.

But despite the numerous social and technological signs of subversion in the auto industry, the industry's players are questioning the new technology. And the government, as an agent of those who prefer to maintain the status quo, often creates obstacles on the pretext of security. So it is hard to judge whether the auto industry is being subverted.

But the unmanned vehicle prototype Google unveiled at the code Coference Convention offers an opportunity to look at many signs of change, and allows us to envision changes in the industry and to think about how to circumvent those barriers.

By observing, I've summed up five major changes in cars and traffic that have structural challenges for existing players.

Urbanization and improvement/acceptability of public transport

Urbanization is an irreversible trend in the United States and developing countries. During the baby boom, people tend to settle in new suburbs, but now major seaside cities like New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco and Seattle have seen their population return to the city centre.

The re-emergence of this trend is a major investment in public transport in these central cities. These cities have more investment in subways, buses and bike lanes than in the past few decades. Bicycle sharing makes travel quicker.

These projects have accelerated the ability of urbanization to improve traffic. Spurred by this, there are more and more businesses in the centre of the city. Over the past century, subsidies for the use of public transport by employees and institutions have also contributed to the socialization of these resources.

In-car function to bundle

Despite its small size, the innovation in automotive electronics is shifting from hardware to software, from carmakers to innovative companies that use mobile platforms to develop transport capabilities. We have seen the convenience of using mobile maps to use crowdsourcing roads and traffic data. We have also seen the non bundling of entertainment content, and the ubiquitous tablet has become the main entertainment tool in the backseat. Used to be the original car equipment or accessories function, with the help of mobile platform to become better, easier to change, lower cost.

This is a sign of two subversive elements. First, it is an economic challenge for carmakers, which have spent a great deal of energy on the business model based on their car's "electronic" development. This subversion of the car's sales economy, especially safety and comfort, is put into the hypothetical car base price.

Secondly, from the perspective of consumers or owners, the familiarity and personalization of traffic comes from mobile devices rather than cars, which makes the transition from one car to another more seamless. Localmotion even through the use of RFID or other means to access the car, to achieve the door and ignition of the car's most basic function to bundle. Many of the previous features relied on automobiles, from GPs to maintenance notices, are now available for mobile devices.

Energy

About half of American oil is consumed by individual cars. The shortage of oil is unavoidable. But America's addiction to high fuel-guzzling cars is hard to shake. Recently, there has been a revival in the sale of SUVs and trucks. Ironically, the competitive advantage of American carmakers, as well as the high profits of SUVs and trucks, will only further consolidate the likelihood of their collapse, losing long-term interest in alternative fuels.

At the same time, advances in software technology can lead to significant improvements in the design, manufacture and distribution of alternative energy vehicles. Tesla became a symbol of what can be done after a thorough rethink of car-making and driving. Detroit's reaction, if not disappointing, is not surprising. GM's legendary Lutz, who spoke of the possibility of mileage anxiety and battery explosion, did not offer any credible alternatives, a performance that still follows the incumbent's response to subversion.

The differential demand of power energy of transportation infrastructure is a subversive force which needs serious consideration.

Share Ownership/ride rights

Owning a car is a very troubling thing, and it will bring the owners insurance, oil, parking, and so on. And the value of the investment is so bad that a new car just out of the dealer's parking lot is worth 20%. But American cars spend an average of 23 hours a day. So buying your own car can be said to be a very crazy thing.

After urbanization, even have their own car has no place to put. For all these reasons, I believe that the attitude of buying a car is going to be a tremendous change. Having a car is no longer a dream, and young people will have more time to get their license than ever before. From Zipcar or Car2Go or Uber and Lyft, the convenience and cost of sharing ownership/rides have reached new levels.

The non-bundling of car functions like keys, personalized maps and entertainment means increased comfort in driving. The car can also be easily hit by a precise GPS positioning. These benefits can be extended to commercial convoys, which suffer the same inefficiency at the microeconomic level. Sharing technology allows shared fleets to maintain usage and reduce the number of vehicles on the road-a good thing for owners and roads.

Fewer cars is a big reversal for the auto industry. We know that subversion is often at its peak before it has gone bad, so the recent rise in car sales (especially SUVs and trucks) should be the last major buying cycle, with the delay of a group of people taking their licences, and the use of shared rides and mobile phones in traffic, Industry leaders must determine how to allocate traffic resources.

Unmanned driving technology

The Google drone's debut has sparked a lot of excitement and commentary, and we're all talking about its proximity to practicality. But this trend is inevitable (see the two founders of Google for discussion). The signs of this discussion will only make this trend even more unavoidable.

As with all technology development routes, we will be able to see the wide adoption of auxiliary driving technology in existing automobiles, even before the advent of new cars. This is how innovation is created. The bonuses of companies such as Google, which are based on maps, sensors, control systems, and so on, have led to the creation of Subaru eyesight and Mercedes-Benz intelligent driving-these innovations are fully automated pioneers.

In a commercial piece, we've seen the advent of Daimler's automatic truck. The development of a fully automatic or semi-automatic vehicle for commercial traffic should not be a crazy thing, because a consistent driving pattern of long-distance transportation can lead to substantial savings in fuel.

Once it's automated, it's not hard to imagine a utopian scenario like this-as long as you hit a car through a mobile device, a nearby car will come in and even when you need it, the car will be uninvited to your schedule.

Of course, some individuals will have their own cars, in order to subsidize costs, may also be taken out of the car as a shared resource. The company will be involved in the sharing of cars, and the government may also launch a shared car service in the light of the shared bicycle model. Shared cars also enjoy the great benefits of automatic cars. You can choose to be the owner of a car at will, enjoy the benefits of sharing a car with many people, without having to worry about driving skills that drive your car (because there is no driver).

The driving experience will be very convenient. Open the car and go-after identification, you can enter the vehicle, the car already know your destination, you can go immediately. As more and more cars are being taken advantage of and the car dealership becomes more predictable and more controlled, not only will the flow of cars be smoother, but driving will be quicker and safer because of the distractions of the driver's attention, mood and reaction. Computer driving is almost guaranteed to be safer than people. After a while, driving will be seen as an anachronism, like an office bar in Mad Men.

End to end rethinking

Conservatively, starting with the economy of owning a car (and making a car), building a 50,000-mile highway (35, 500 billion dollars), going to the urban lifestyle, and a final income boost (the proportion of 0.8 cars/driving licences in 2008) was a reality- It takes about 30 years for cars to change society.

It also takes a long time for us to reach the next technological peak (the shared transportation, the automatic car, and the social infrastructure and lifestyle that underpin these changes). But these changes are coming. As long as the signs of Change (social evolution) are pieced together, it will be found to be irreversible.

Existing players will take short-term solutions to improve traffic incrementally. The car will add improved safety tools to warn the driver. The city will use sensors and surveillance systems to provide more congestion information. Technology will continue to squeeze more miles out of fossil fuels.

Nor should we forget that car enthusiasts, like technology enthusiasts, will continue to invest in the knowledge of automobiles and enjoy their favorite driving experience.

Existing players may resist technological change. We will see the industry leaders talk about the "mileage anxiety" of alternative energy vehicles. We see opponents of shared assets continuing to clamor for the risks of public safety. We see interest groups blocking infrastructure changes and the necessary public spending (as opposed to highways that have ever happened).

This is a part of social change-to make progress, without the collision of different viewpoints, to compromise on change in their own ways and rhythms.

Every step in the evolution of technology the customer base denies the growing evidence of the next generation's improvements. Recall that many programmers have previously resisted protection mode, virtual memory, graphical interface, and tablet computers. The flight control commercial aircraft was introduced by Airbus and was initially belittled by Boeing, which was not accepted until 777. In the past, drivers have resisted automatic transmissions, GPS and even cruise, and it is not surprising that existing players are resistant to new designs.

Perhaps the common thread of technological innovation is that it allows a new company to be unfettered and really redefine a product.

The car didn't show up before 20th century. With Moore's law speeding up the pace of change, it is not surprising to see the same upheaval in the world in half the time. Historically, America's auto industry has been a blink of an eye. Its version 2.0 is likely to change faster.