Auto industry keeps double growth in April and focuses on industry recovery opportunities

Auto April production and sales data: Passenger car chain high growth, commercial vehicles showed a steady increase, the revival of high-end cars obvious securities brokerage comments: Various segments of the industry, the upstream parts industry benefited significantly, the overall opportunity to pay attention to Zhongyuan securities Chepeje recently, the Auto industry association released the April auto production and sales data, The whole industry in the national policy as well as the end market demand, continue to maintain the double growth of production and sales. What investment opportunities will be brought by the recovery of the auto industry?　　Believe that investors are very concerned about. Passenger car continued to grow at a high rate of April sedan sales year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 33.04% and 8.34% respectively, sales to record a monthly record. Sedan more than 30% per cent year-on-year growth rate, ping An securities is considered to be caused by a number of factors: a lower base last year, the end of 2008 the production of prudent manufacturers, compressed inventory led to imbalance in supply and demand, end price increase, stimulate the purchase, the national policy stimulus, the macroeconomic indicators PMI since November 2008 month The economic bottom up has boosted social spending confidence and car purchasing power. Great Wall Securities believes that China's passenger car is still "into the family stage", in the coming period of time can continue to grow rapidly; the national policy has reduced the cost of purchase and use to some extent; the price continues to decrease.　　These three factors, the passenger car industry recovery becomes inevitable. Sales of commercial vehicles rose 1.38% in April. The breakdown of the industry is still uneven: large and medium passenger sales have warmed up, the heavy card sales of small growth, restore to normal level; Zhongyuan Securities believes that the fuel tax reform and "car to the countryside" so that light truck sales to grow well and biased towards high-end. The introduction of the three-state emission standards for light cards under 3.5 tonnes in July will reinforce this trend.　　It is recommended to focus on the high end light truck business of Jiangling Motors and Fukuda cars.　　For future sales of commercial vehicles, CICC expects that the large and medium-sized passenger cars due to lower demand in the downstream, a high base for the same period last year, sales in the first half of 09 and year-on-year growth will be maintained at a lower level; March-May is the heavy card sales season, the future sales are expected to remain high, but the high rebound in sales depends on Middle-grade car recovery to promote industry profits from the market segment, April A00 and A-class car sales growth significantly higher than other models, C and C-class car sales rebound. CICC believes that low-end models are still the main driver of rapid growth in car sales, while the sharp pick-up in high-end car sales shows that the stimulus of wealth effect is beginning to appear.　　In the context of the strengthening of market consumption confidence, the consumption of high-end cars has a certain rigidity, May there is the possibility of continued rebound. For the growth of car sales in the future, CICC believes that the current car manufacturers link holding inventory accounted for nearly six months of the industry's average sales of 9%, for the lowest level in 04 years, low inventory bring lower price pressure and circulation link replenishment or will bring sales growth. Ping An securities that in the second half of 08, some consumers because of economic and revenue expectations pessimistic and postponed the car,In the context of good economic expectations, postponed or suppressed demand will be released, the market still has about 310,000 delayed purchasing power to be digested in the next few months, optimistic estimates, the next three months car sales growth rate of more than 30% may be greater. There are big differences in the area of the car's future demand increase in the industry. Galaxy Securities believes that future demand will be mainly from the two or three-line area of the release of car consumption. Because of the road traffic constraints and the increasing cost of car use in the city, the automobile consumption is restrained, the two or three-line area is vast, the use cost is relatively low, and the passenger vehicle penetration rate is still low, which will become the new growth point of passenger cars demand in the future.　　CICC believes that the inland region of the two or three-line cities, before the current financial crisis has been a car consumption boom, coupled with the impact of the financial crisis is smaller, the future will show a higher number of cards. Ping An securities believes that, from the growth rate of ownership, the two or three-line city growth is indeed higher than Beijing, Shanghai and other first-tier cities, but the car increase of 2/3 is still provided by the first-tier cities.　　And from the income level of residents, consumption behavior characteristics and historical data, the growth of the middle-grade car still depends on the coastal economically developed areas, in a long period of time, the first-tier city is still the main contribution area of the increment of the middle-grade car. Investment opportunities in the parts industry the Great Wall securities that the car industry has been through the 08-year high level of policy-driven, and continued to grow significantly in April, the industry's future growth is still more optimistic, parts due to the car industry upstream, the recovery will be less than 2-3 months, as the auto industry recovery, The future of the components industry will be greatly improved.　　In view of the rapid growth of components in the industry and its growth and valuation center is higher than the car, the proposed focus on the components of Ningbo Huaxiang, China-Ding shares, Wanfeng Granville, as well as car company FAW sedan, Shanghai automobile. Ping An securities believes that the car industry's production and consumption characteristics of its profits fluctuate significantly. and parts enterprises usually focus on a certain part of the field, easy to form their own core competitiveness in a subdivision area, with obvious characteristics of light assets, output unit profit required less investment, more stable profit than sedan, asset return is relatively higher. Parts companies are expected to benefit greatly from the revival of high-end cars.　　Recommended to pay attention to the glass, bus shares, Ningbo Huaxiang, China-Ding shares, Dongan power. Combined securities predicted that with the revival of the middle and high sedan market and the continuation of the blowout situation of small displacement cars, the two-quarter car industry will achieve considerable profit growth, the full-year performance is more than expected, while the major parts companies less than 20 times times the level of PE valuation means a higher margin of investment safety. In the next 1 quarters, parts companies have a greater chance of acquiring excess income. Combined with underestimated value, industry growth benefits and future growth space, recommend Dong ' an power, bus shares, Fook Yiu Glass, China tripod shares. In addition, to maintain the Shanghai automobile, FAW sedan, Changan automobile "overweight" rating.