Big data helps the online video industry to break the game

Since the Copyright War in 2009, the online video industry has become chaotic. In the past few years, the industry has gradually established its business model of using copyright video as the main development basis and using the advertising revenue of copyright videos as its main source of revenue. Through the most primitive way, or fight father, to establish competitive barriers.

In recent years, with Youku potatoes, Iqiloyi PPS and a series of other capital operation, so that the original pattern of the chaos of the industry has basically become clear up, the basic establishment of the industrial order, but the initial problem has become more and more Tricky, this model can not make money, in the end there is no future development?

In 2013, the market size of online video advertising industry is expected to reach 9.3 billion, an increase of 60% over the same period of last year. The estimated market size in 2014 will be around 13 billion, an increase of 40% over the same period of previous year, while that of 2011 and 2012 will be 93% and 72% respectively. For a mature industry 40% growth rate is not low, but for a not profitable industry, this maturity came a little sooner. Poverty is changing, the next two years for the network video industry to get rid of the bottleneck, the layout of the future is crucial.

In the current business model, online video is destined to be a meager profit industry

Network video industry, the biggest obstacle to profitability lies in the high cost of content acquisition, the future will come down?

I remember last year when the merger, you said that it will increase the platform party's voice, reduce the cost of content acquisition, but the truth, who bought who know. The cost of content, especially the cost of premium content, is mainly due to the following two aspects:

1. The demand for high-quality content from television stations is quite strong, but the supply of high-quality content is insufficient. In 2013, the estimated TV market size is around 12 billion yuan, of which about 85% is contributed by the TV stations. Online video is only a subordinate position in this market, and the purchasing expenditure is pushed by the big market. The demand for quality content from television stations comes from three aspects:

First, the competition in television stations is getting more and more intense. According to Suo Furui statistics, in 2012 the provincial satellite TV ratings ranked first in Hunan Satellite TV, ratings 0.36%, Jiangsu Satellite TV second, ratings 0.35%, followed by Zhejiang Satellite TV, ratings 0.3%, followed by Tianjin Satellite TV And Anhui TV ratings difference is not large, TV station competition into the white-hot, TV series as the first source of ratings will inevitably become the battleground of the military; Second, drama cash flow efficiency is high, television ratings on the television station's contribution of 40% , But the contribution of advertising revenue accounted for more than 60% of the entire industry point of view, the TV station to buy the TV drama only accounted for about 10% of its advertising revenue from the 2012 TV bid results, the TV series in the country 10 The most profitable program accounted for 5 seats, you can see the TV drama is the income of many television pillars; third, policy-driven, "limited entertainment Order" limits the duration of entertainment broadcast, so that the drama on television further highlights the importance of, The "limited broadcast order" on the number of TV stations broadcast the restrictions, to stimulate their competition for high-quality television more intense. In summary, the demand for high quality content from television stations is strong, but the production and supply of high quality content is not enough. How much of our audience can remember each year?

2, the market is difficult to form a monopoly in a short time, or oligarchs, the scale to reduce the cost of the effect is difficult to achieve. The territorial management features of our TV stations are somewhat similar to the operation of state-owned enterprises, which make it very unlikely that TV stations will completely merge and merge. Therefore, it is very difficult to form an oligarchic structure like the three major US television networks and the premium premium capability for premium content is difficult to upgrade. In the online video industry Ebb Tide the remaining excellent soil, love Fantastic Art, Tencent video, Sohu video is not short of money players who lack of purchasing power will soon be taken advantage of, so online video copyright price in a short period of time Will not be loose

Therefore, the contents of the cost of a short period of time will not be reduced, the current model of network video is a losing money goods, a short time will not change, however, we must change the status of not making money, and how to do?

Go up and down

Since the crux of the problem lies in the cost of content, why not do it yourself?

In fact, everyone started to do so. Youku focused on creating home-made variety shows in 2013. iResearch showed that Youku variety channel PV accounted for 11.2%, second only to the series. As of July, "Youku All Entertainment 2013" cumulative VV195 million, more than buying the copyright variety "I am the singer first quarter" 179 million VV. At present, the self-made variety has got quick response from advertisers. Mengniu and Jeep respectively sponsored the titles of "Youku All Entertainment 2013" and "Friends". All these rumors exceeded 10 million yuan and the ROI was higher than the drama. Sohu video production of "reeling men" also limelight, according to Sohu claimed that there are about 300 million VV, even if the figure has moisture, about 100 million vv per quarter should be no problem, ranging from only six episodes per season, This vv is also very impressive. Homemade drama seems to be the way out of the video site, but in fact there are still many things to pondering.

Youku Q2 earnings report shows its content costs 300 million yuan, accounting for 40% of revenue, while the same period last year was 200 million yuan, accounting for 36% of revenue. This set of data shows that the current content cost of Utopia did not improve because of home-made drama. Similarly, content costs in Sohu in 2012 around 400 million this year increased to about 500 million or more. It seems that homebred dramas seem to have a limited effect on the optimization of content costs for a reason.

High-quality video content is a major demand for viewers, a conclusion that ends up in every corner of the world, but making premium video content is something that must be rich but money alone may not be right.

Let's talk about money. In recent years, China's soaring prices, coupled with the aforementioned internal competition in the television and online video industry, have pushed up the price of copyright. These factors have pushed up the cost of content production at the same time. The previous hit "Little Daddy" is said to cost more than 60 million, but the cost is not the highest. Like the beginning of the year, "Romance of the Sui and Tang Dynasties," "Legend of Chu Han," all had billions of dollars in investment and wanted to make a decent Film, perhaps not so much, but like "Dragon Gate Escort" that level is basically the bottom line of quality content, the cost is about 40 million up and down, so if the quality of content by self-made, then the cost is actually less than buying online video copyright How many.

Furthermore, investment in film and television is a highly risky industry. China produces about 20,000 episodes of TV shows every year and can broadcast only about 30% of the total on television stations and websites. In other words, only 3 of 10 films can be invested on television Broadcast, but can become a hot drama is even more rare, like "little dad" this level of 5-10 years it will only. Huayi Brothers semi-annual report shows that in the first half of the company TV drama business revenue 86.55 million yuan, down 37%; cost 74.68 million yuan, an increase of 3%. Senior Huayi, TV investment is not how to make money, just enter the film and television industry online video, the risk of failure is obviously much larger.

However, the variety shows are not the same. Apart from "China's good voice", the variety shows of all major TV programs are basically done by themselves and are truly "homemade content." The reason is the variety show is relatively simple, the general two programs will be able to fire variety show, the first is already foreign fire, such as "China is good voice", "I am a singer" and so on, the other is the host and production team Special cattle, such as "Kangxi come", "If you're the one" and so on. The cost of variety shows may not be less than that of TV shows (such as "Good Voice" invests more than 80 million in the first quarter), but the risks are relatively smaller and the returns are relatively guaranteed. For example, the 2012 TV bid, "You Are the One" advertising revenue Than all TV's television theater income is high. Therefore, the video site homemade fierce call, but the color is all variety content, and even "reeling men" is actually more like Dapeng another talk show, can not be called a strict TV series.

However, to do variety does not buy TV series? The answer is no. 42% of the TV stations' ratings come from the TV series. Variety only accounts for about 7% of the total. Among them, some of the reasons for the policy are generally just for the audience. Therefore, variety shows play a more differentiated and positioning role, as we see "if you're the one" can think of Jiangsu Satellite TV, it is homemade, unique, children do not. However, Jiangsu Satellite TV also had to buy "hot mom", because it is a necessity, is to live on the basis.

So for online video, variety and plot operas (such as the recently released Youku, "Never Enthusiast," Epic 13 episodes, totaling 235 million VVs) may be the direction of home-made content that can be traffic Effective supplement, but the current drama purchase or survival of the need for self-made drama for the content cost pressure to ease the role of very limited. Of course, the future does not rule out the video site hired a professional video investment experts, specializing in upstream things, with the help of big data, may effectively improve the success rate.

According to the above argument, the upstream approach to go with the current method or can not get rid of the fact that online video is a "meager profit" industry, then go downstream?

From the second half of last year, everyone seems to have started selling boxes. Millet, LeTV, Ai Qi Yi out of the box, Knowing All, Alibaba also out of the box, we shouted to seize the living room big screen have to advance to the OTT market. However, there are two problems in this market that must be clarified first. First, how relaxed the policy can be and how can the second make money.

Needless to say the first question, this is China's national conditions, who say that the future is not good, the first assumption is optimistic. So the means of making money is almost nothing more than this: selling equipment, TO C fees, advertising.

Obviously not sell equipment, do not say first, such as Pepsi, such a backing of the country, the box is basically give in, even if we all receive money, but also basically receive a crop of money, because the equipment needs of the update is very low, unlike Mobile phones, iPhone each year a large number of new loyal to buy a new buy, because the phone can show off, put the box on the living room, even if the brush a few times earth gold can not add value for it.

TO C charges is possible, provided that there is good content, your content is only here, not elsewhere, the video site to independently do this work is impossible, because it is equivalent to the establishment of a television station, the country It may not be possible to do so by way of Know-How or CNTV, but the bulk of the revenue may be to others, but the bulk of the cost must be own because the licensee (Internet TV licensee) can decide to let you in This market, they have the absolute bargaining power, which is very common in China, which is the so-called "rent-seeking."

Advertising income still can not get rid of "rent-seeking." Fortunately, this model does not need to attach too much cost, in addition to seize the living room can effectively expand the number of users, get rid of the network bottlenecks facing users of video, while optimizing the advertising power of presentation, you can take to improve the advertising premium, but this bright future The premise is that there are really many people who use the job, OTT market education has just started, ex works will be a relatively long process, and it seems that for most people on-demand function is that they think it is very much needed, and after Too lazy to get the function, after all, open a TV program has to see everyone's childhood viewing habits, if the machine also need to choose to open a long time, seemingly many people will be impatient, the user's education process may be more lengthy, so although the ads Revenue is most likely to be the main source of revenue for OTT, but there are many variables in it, and how future developments will be observed in the attempt.

Digging data is the video site breaking the key

Upstream downstream development seems unable to get rid of the pressure of high cost for profit, then look for another idea, if you can make more money do not like. We have always said we want to grab the share of television, we must know TV commercial market in 2013 at about 96 billion yuan, assuming the television coverage of the national population, then contribute 74 yuan per capita, online video ads in 2013 a total of 93 Billion, according to 420 million coverage to count, per capita contribution of 22 yuan, and TV worse than 3 times, you can enhance the space is huge, the key is how to grab.

The old way to go TV is a game, after all, decades of accumulation of people, not overnight can be exceeded, have to take the difference. Network video, network before and after the video, network heavy technology, video re-operation (content quality is very important, the best is still to buy the copyright to solve). A few days ago to chat with friends is not to make online video Warner such content producers, friends say it is not the restoration? I take it for granted. Network video should have the network + video look, that is, technology driven content operations and commercial realization, which is the point of network video differentiation.

Where is the source of the premium TV? Broad and large numbers cover the law. Coverage issues With the development of online video may be gradually resolved by the market, such as the development of the mobile terminal and the above-mentioned living room OTT layout, there is hope to significantly enhance user coverage, but for now, Youku and other sites covered by the number of years It should also be 3 to 400 million, less than the number of first-line satellite TV 5 to 700 million coverage, look forward to the next few years there will be a change.

Simply put, the Law of Large Numbers is that at certain times the high ratings of television stations are regular and predictable. Advertisers believe that this period of time (for example, 8 pm to 10 pm) So they are willing to spend more money to bet that time period performance will be higher than expected. There is no law of large numbers in online video because there is no timeline for playing online video programs, but the online video is trying to find a way for advertisers to bet. For example, the premium way to pack a theater resource package, promised to ensure the amount at the end, through technical and operational means to monitor and adjust traffic in real time to complete the commitment, Youku is doing so, Youku theater generally include a broadcast A S drama and a play just finished, this year's total revenue of nearly 6 billion. But this is the TV's old way, there is no added value of the network, but television.

What's wrong with television? There is no reliable crowd data. Ratings are by far the most important measure of television stations, but this figure is derived from the statistics. Its accuracy and value have been criticized for a long time, but no other method was available before. Relatively speaking, the network is full of data.

How to achieve? Tough crowd data mining and analysis technology + Niubi media library, the user and the content really get through. In fact, the online video crowd data technology is still much worse, Youku and other companies do not have accurate user portraits, Tencent theory has more advantages, but the status quo and Niubi these two words are far apart. The construction of media library network media and traditional media than the difference between too much, television stations pay more attention to the construction of media library than the network video, the industry's best media library started the company Eaton and actress are Anhui Satellite TV team, The current achievements come from their 10 years of accumulation of television data management. Network video to make up more classes than expected.

Most advertisers need to target audiences. This rigid demand television station can only be met by a rough orientation of the type of drama, but the network is much better in theory, which is the most fundamental advantage of online video advertising.

In fact, Victor Koo has already begun to pay attention to the importance of data mining and data authority, Youku index released each drama's VV and crowd structure are basically excellent real data, on the one hand reflects Koo's confidence in their data more performance Their ambition to establish the authority of the data, but unfortunately the limitations of its own platform to make it difficult for the crowd to analyze a strong selling point in a short period of time.

The next three years the video industry is very important, policy-makers need to clearly understand the situation, hands-on!

The original link http://www.huxiu.com/article/22475/1.html

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