Boiled frog in warm water how far can we go in May?

Unconsciously, the May market has passed half. For two consecutive weeks, the concept of various themes of the stock as "storytelling" as the continuous deduction.　　At the same time, with PetroChina as the representative of the weight of shares are shouldering the responsibility of the protection plate. This week, the market continued to launch a concussion, the final Shanghai Composite Index week rose only 0.75%, the collection of a meaningful Yin cross star.　　It is noteworthy that the turnover is another obvious feature of this week, the Shanghai stock week turnover of 670.2 billion yuan, compared to last week's 796.3 billion Yuan week turnover significantly atrophy. Does this week's Yin Cross week line mean that "red May" has become a bag of things, or does it mean that the adjustment is about to begin? How will the rest of the May market be interpreted?　　In the current round of the rebound from the end of October last year, the index and stocks have accumulated a huge increase in the present, combined with the macroeconomic situation and market participants in the trend, we believe that the current round of investors need to be highly cautious stage. Market Review don't be blinded by the index. Looking back on the markets this week, it is not hard to see that the adjustment has begun to emerge since Monday. This Monday, Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued the "Gem listing Rules (draft)."　　Affected by the news, the index opened low, the final prev fell 45.9 points, down 1.75%, and below the 5th EMA. In such a critical moment, the weight index stocks stand up, Tuesday, Wednesday consecutive two-day rally, not only let the market return to the 5th line, but also to create a rebound in this round of new highs of 2670.21 points.　　Thursday and Friday two days a narrow range of shocks, although the stock index has once again below the 5th line, but eventually in China's oil (601857, close 13.17 yuan) and other weight under the lead, and all pull through. On the surface, the stock index still maintains the strong characteristic, every day the stock rises the list also to have a lot of stock, among them the biological medicine plate, Chongqing region plate and so on some hot spot also is strengthening.　　However, many people will have such a feeling, if not to buy up the weight of the stock, or just in line with the market hot stocks, then in this week's market, in fact, the difficulty of making money is quite large. One analyst said it was likely to be blinded by the appearance of the boom if it continued to stare at the index. Now, it seems that the rebound in the market is still healthy, steady upward operation.　　However, when the cumulative increase in huge, macro surface can still carry the market upward? Macro environmental economic recovery heavy responsibilities the stock market is the barometer of the economy, so fundamentally, the macroeconomic changes, will eventually be reflected in the stock market. 2009 is the year of China's economic recovery, and the stock market has already started to "revive". From the end of October last year, 1664.93 points to the current 2600多 points, the cumulative rise of more than 1000 points. Is such a huge increase consistent with the macroeconomic trend?　　To answer this question, it must be analysed from the economic data. Friday, the latest revenue data released. April, the national revenue of 589.715 billion yuan, than toA decrease of 92.773 billion yuan in the same year, down 13.6%. Among them, the central level income of 294.074 billion yuan, down 25.2%, local level income of 295.641 billion yuan, increase 2.2%.　　April the decline in national revenue than in March further expansion.　　It is noteworthy that, from the main tax items, the April domestic value-added tax fell by 7.8%, domestic consumption tax year-on-year growth of 81.6% (excluding refined oil tax reform to increase the income factor in real growth of 0.1%); corporate income tax fell 27% year-on-year, the tariff fell 41.4%. Analysts point out that VAT is the most widely and most influential item in various categories of taxes. From supply, production to consumption, each area involves value-added tax, so the change of VAT can reflect the economic change to a large extent. The consumption tax, despite an increase of 81.6% per cent year-on-year, has actually grown by just 0.1%, almost equivalent to no growth, if the cost of the product is eliminated.　　In addition, corporate income taxes and tariffs have fallen more, and these financial figures amply show that current economic growth is still slow. This week, the Bureau of Statistics also released the April industrial value added. April, the national scale of industrial enterprises above the increase in value year-on-year growth of 7.3%, the increase than the same period last year 8.4%, industrial enterprises to achieve export delivery value of 566.21 billion yuan, down 14.3%.　　Jing Daming, an analyst at Galaxy Securities, said that while the data indicated that the rapid decline in industrial production was contained, it was still at the bottom. From the industry, the rapid growth of production is mainly driven by policy incentives of investment-driven industries, such as transport equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing.　　Sectors without policy stimulus have been slow to grow, such as a 0.9% drop in real estate growth from March.　　Both financial data and industrial data are still a rebound from government-led policy investment. But how long can the pull of policy investment last?　　Analysts believe that if there is no real growth in consumption, private sector production and imports and exports in May and June, then the next economic data could be likely to dip again. Market trends in the main financial shocks in the net outflow 20.8 billion this week, Shanghai and Shenzhen to maintain the oscillation pattern, Shanghai Composite index of the whole week up 0.75%, reported 2645.26 points, Shen exponentially all week up 0.89%, closed at 10273.23 points. This week the market again high, but the increase is very small, and the plate shocks intensified.　　Show the market to go more hesitant, the two sides temporarily in a state of stalemate. In terms of volume, this week the amount of shrinkage is obvious. From Tuesday to Friday turnover was significantly shrinking, the Friday Shanghai trading only 108 billion yuan, this level is the end of April adjustment level, the same period of high innovation and hovering in high, such a departure should cause vigilance. The most persuasive is the market capital flow, the big wisdom TopView data shows that this week five trading day main fundThe net outflow of gold, the net outflow of funds accumulated 20.85 billion yuan. According to the distribution of capital flow in various industries, this week, a total of 13 sectors of the net inflow of funds, compared to the previous week to reduce 8, of which ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry to net capital inflow of 794 million yuan to become the main industry this week, Baosteel, Handan Iron and steel, TISCO stainless steel three stock funds respectively into 172 million yuan, 144 million yuan, 111 million yuan.　　In addition, coal mining industry, securities and futures industry, the production and supply of tap water, chemical fiber manufacturing, publishing industry, hotel and Guesthouse Fund net inflow is obvious, Taurus Energy, coal gasification, coal energy, Lu ' an ring, Hongyuan Securities, Changjiang Securities, City Investment Holding, Huafeng spandex, China News media, Xindu hotel and other funds to the net inflow positive. There are 63 sectors of the net outflow of funds, the weight plate ranked the top of the net outflow of funds continue.　　Statistics show that the real estate development and management industry, transportation equipment manufacturing, civil engineering construction, non-ferrous metal mining industry, banking, comprehensive category, such as the net outflow of the six major sectors are more than 1 billion yuan, the cumulative net outflow of 7.43 billion yuan. The first eight stocks in the stock of Shanghai and Shenzhen are: Zijin Mining (-610 million yuan), Chinese architecture (-500 million yuan), China Unicom (-460 million), Datong-Qinhuangdao railway (-380 million yuan), Huaxia Bank (-350 million yuan), ICBC (-350 million yuan), the same party shares (-　　320 million yuan), western mining (-300 million yuan). With the index of high volatility, the Hercynian economic construction, new energy, real estate, new Shanghai, venture capital and other early major themes of the concept of the theme has been weak signs.　　In addition, the main fund for five consecutive trading days of the net outflow but the overall small increase in the index, indicating that the trend of the plate and capital flow, investors should be more cautious response.　　Afternoon analysis of the next half month vigilance "raise, set, kill" May market has been "red" half, the remaining half a month will be how to deduce? Some people say that the current market is actually "raise, set, kill".　　Because the organization has already full warehouse, high shipping is not easy, only first by index stock "raise" the market does not fall, and then gradually lead retail investors into sets, the organization after shipment began to plummet. "Raises, sets, kills" The argument perhaps some extreme. But such a market, there is a "warm water boiled frog" suspicion. There is a saying, "A frog suddenly put in boiling water, it will jump out immediately, boil it." and put it in the warm water, and then slowly boil the cold, the frog will be aware of the late, and too late to react, eventually burned in the inside. "The individual, perhaps, is the frog," he said. If suddenly a sharp decline, and triggered an uninterrupted adjustment of the market, retail investors may soon be scared back, turnover rapidly shrinking, the institutional profit plate can not be eliminated. However, if it is in the "warm water" market, so that the retail investors gradually lose their vigilance, and even use the weight of the rally to create a new high, at this time the retail investors really become a warm water frog. When everyone thinks the market is going up, maybe it'sThe market finally peaked.　　Careful analysis of this week's market trends and the performance of most stocks, do not know whether investors can smell the "warm" taste? Today, many institutions still look very good for future. For example, Wanguo that the index is expected to hit 2,800 points. Frank Gong, head of China research at JPMorgan Chase, even believes the market has entered the early stages of the bull market. It should be pointed out that when so many organizations look at it collectively, they should not forget the risk.　　After entering the May, Prev Rose 200多 points, but the difficulty of making money is getting bigger. Whether the future can really rise to 2,800 points or even 3,000 points, it is really difficult to say. But if the recovery does not look as rosy as expected, it will sooner or later be reflected in the stock market. As a result, investors are advised to be cautious in the remaining trading days of May.