But bin: what kind of investment beliefs do we have?

But bin/Wen April 10, 2009, to participate in the Vanke shareholder meeting, a sitting next to my shareholders said: "Vanke so far, according to 25 yuan of the highest price return of 2,500 times times, if you can find such a small to large stock is good." "I said:" You should be wrong, Vanke's return should not be so high. Mr. Liu Yuansheng invested 4 million yuan, peak 3.3 billion yuan, only 825 times times, Vanke distributed dividend Liu Yuansheng have no reinvestment, whether to participate in each allotment I did not check. But the question is, even if you can find a new Vanke, how can you earn this 825 times times? Look at Simple stock price, 1993 to 1996, Vanke from 36.7 Yuan fell to 3.2 yuan, even if you and Liu Yuansheng in the same period to buy, if you are in which you will regret why 1993 years not in high selling? A philosophical question is: If you sell high, whether you can buy again low, do not pay attention to 2001 to 2005 Vanke from 16.25 Yuan to 3.12 yuan, if you can do high sell low buy two times, then you only need perhaps less than 100,000 yuan, can earn much more wealth than Liu Yuansheng. The great enterprise also can withstand the wind and rain, in the face of adversity, why do you insist? 1 volatility is the eternal phenomenon in the stock market, and the volatility of emerging markets is more intense. For example, the longest and most representative Shanghai Composite Index in 17 years is only three or four times larger than the bull bear, with a year of fluctuations of more than 50%. Moreover, the volatility of stocks is even greater.　　I am afraid it is because of the importance and influence of Shanghai Composite Index, many investors take it as a reference, whenever the Shanghai Composite index to reach a sensitive point, the idea of selling shares is now in mind, and often do not consider what kind of stocks they hold. The factors that affect the enterprise are very complicated, I think the long-term investors like Liu Yuansheng must be rare. First of all, it is difficult to find a listed company with Evergreen; wave-band Operation Temptation is huge; third, "investment mentality is wrong" to stifle long-term investment; four, the market ups and downs, the world is turbulent; Finally, the ambiguity of the valuation is very large; the more the standard, the more the less. Eighth, the same industry is full of challenges; Nineth, cross-industry comparisons are more challenging for judgment; the Outlook theory (Daniel Kahneman) argues that the pain of loss is 2.5 times times the same amount of happiness as profit. "It's harder to keep a share than to be widowed"!　　Even if the enterprise is not a problem, but the thought of social changes in the macroscopic, it is enough to make people anxious. At the end of 2008, when we met a scholar of the age of students, we talked about China's economy and its future, he talked about an economist friend, since 1988 has been not optimistic about the Chinese economy, 20 years.　　China's problem is always the hope in the worry. Recently just finished reading Wu Xiaobo "100 Years". Wu Xiaobo in the preface of the book, said: "In the past 30 years, the reform and opening-up of theIt is proved that the economic take-off of a country can not be accomplished by means of social and political revolution. In the peaceful rise of the 30, there was no large-scale social unrest, no famine, national division and ethnic antagonism, the majority of the people are the beneficiaries of this reform, the gradual thinking has become the mainstream consensus of society, this is a remarkable achievement, is the Chinese people's greatest contribution to the world. What we need to prove over the next 30 years is that this step-by-step path and pattern of change is likely to bring new possibilities to a wider and deeper Chinese society.　　"See the Snowball", the impression is that Buffett's hometown has been hailed as "the City of Sodom hypocrisy", "rogue Crowd" of Omaha and the United States since 70 the vicissitudes of the great changes (regardless of technical factors), without the United States today and Buffett's faith in the United States, it is impossible to have Buffett's current achievements. What kind of future will China face? What kind of belief do we have to choose now?