Capital cut: New inflection point in housing market

Property tax to disclose the long-term regulatory signal of the government newspaper reporter Yanyaobin Zheng An Wu Lihua intern reporter Zhang Beijing reported stimulating the economy, not to open or real estate.　　To revive real estate, the most need is to consolidate bacon. How much is the capital ratio of commercial housing investment reduced? has made developers both eager and anxious. "Is it just a breeze?" May 26, Jiang Wei, Deputy secretary general of the national Real estate manager, was fidgeting during an interview with the Huaxia Times.　　At this time has been from the State Council executive meeting decided a full 27 days.　　On May 27, the State Council announced the results of the adjustment of capital ratio of fixed assets investment projects, of which the minimum capital ratio of investment in ordinary commodity housing projects was lowered from 35% to 20%, and the magnitude of the reduction was almost beyond the imagination of all those interviewed. "Ordinary commercial housing capital ratio reduced by 15%, really did not think, did not think." "Jiang Wei May 29 again to be interviewed by reporters even said two" did not think, "This is a very obvious stimulus to the property market policy. Monetary easing, intended to use credit leverage to stimulate investment in the real estate industry, but also reduce the financial pressure of developers.　　"The big news about real estate continues. Recently, the State Council in the Forward Development and Reform Commission "on the 2009 deepening economic restructuring of the notice of the work," the Ministry of Finance, the general administration of taxation, development and Reform Commission, housing Urban and Rural Construction Department is responsible for deepening real estate tax reform, research levy property tax　　Unlike before, this is the State Council's first property tax. The news, which led to the singing of the air, or house prices plummeted or local conflict. But the reporter learned in the days of interviews, and now the property tax, is the local revenue plummeted, selling land to make a way not to go far, central testing, study local attitudes.　　For real estate in the long term, "property tax is a dose of dose, but bitter". "In the long run, through tax reform to adjust the pattern of real estate interests, the levy of property tax is the healthy development of real estate industry specimens and treatment measures." "Chen Kwok-keung, director of the Beijing Institute of Real Estate Research, said in an interview with Huaxia Times May 29.　　However, he also said that the imposition of property tax needs to solve the problem complex.　　Earlier, a central think-tank, who declined to be named, told the Huaxia Times that the real estate industry would not just "revive" it, but that what was needed was a long-term plan that was comparable to the 1998 housing reform. In fact, since the introduction of the 4 trillion program, the real estate has not been out of sight. "Several into a few", the top ten industrial revitalization planning, central and local still issued a number of measures to promote real estate development, the birth of a first quarter of the property market small spring.　　However, the macro-economy is still facing downward pressure, exports continue to shrink, the lack of incentives for private investment and consumers wait and see, May property market also met LSC. Real estate market to really warmer, still need to combine length, specimen and treatment.　　By this week, the housing planning veil is up. The real estate property market that does not revolve is never lack of concern. Real Estate marketField since October 2007 into the depth adjustment cycle, 2008 years into the downturn. "As the real estate market situation changes, consumers continue to wait and see, the developers overall encounter difficult sales, the slow return of funds, the entire industry has suffered a shortage of capital pressure."　　Shanghai Real estate analyst Chen sincerely said. In the face of the crisis, the central government stimulates economic policy filed, while real estate always stands at a crossroads with no market price. In February this year, the real estate finally lost the top ten industrial revitalization planning. On the one hand, the data showed that in January, 70 large and medium cities fell only 0.9%, after two consecutive months of decline, still in 2007 after the average level of housing prices.　　On the other hand, the housing price relations People's livelihood, the question is sensitive, at that time also coincided.　　In the real estate revitalization or not of the war of words, Ministry of construction Minister Weixin said "house prices have to adjust the time", the CBRC chairman Liu said the strict implementation of the "Second Suite" policy.　　Then, the deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission Tienan interpretation of the "not into the top ten" reasons, the real estate industry is China's important pillar industry, is now, the future is also. After that, the property market policy appears to be firm and loose.　　In the loose credit and the local government launched a series of stimulus policies, the property market finally ushered in the March small spring, unfortunately not sustainable, prosperity to the end of May. As a result of driving the property market consumption measures did not play a predetermined effect, many developers choose to reduce the start or even shutdown, resulting in real estate-related building materials, services and other upstream and downstream industries atrophy. "The real estate developers are still not confident, the situation is still grim."　　Mr Chan said. Worse, exports and domestic demand are at a low ebb.　　With the real estate industry related to steel, building materials and other industries continue to fall, through real estate development stimulate the economy to pull demand has become logical. New capital 468 billion real estate investment is entrusted with heavy responsibilities, commercial housing investment project capital ratio reduced by 15% is corroboration. "Monetary easing is intended to leverage credit leverage to stimulate investment in the real estate sector." "Jiang Wei analysis. According to the regulations, all the project capital is not in place will not be able to obtain loans, can not start construction.　　Whether the capital of a project is in place or not, becomes the key to the formal construction after obtaining the relevant approval formalities.　　In January-April this year, the country's urban fixed assets investment of 3.7082 trillion yuan, an increase of 30.5%, higher than the market expected 29.1%, but real estate investment increased by 4.9%. In fact, the central government regulation of the real estate industry overheating began in 2004, the State Council issued "on the adjustment of some industries fixed assets investment Project Capital ratio notice."　　Among them, the real estate development project Capital proportion increases from 20% and above to 35% and above; the CBRC "Commercial Bank real estate loan risk Management Guideline" stipulates that the real estate development enterprise development Project Capital proportion is not less than 35%. "The reduction of capital ratio means that the investment capacity of the subject is enhanced under the established capital quantity." "A real estate development enterprise general manager Ma Yue said," Cut down to enter the roomThe threshold of property also increases the efficiency of the use of funds. This is in line with the central policy of stimulating investment.　　April 17, the State Council executive meeting Analysis of the first quarter of the economic situation to deploy eight priorities, one is to encourage private investment. The first quarter, real estate development enterprise source of funds, real estate development loan 254.5 billion yuan. According to the analysis, "in the first quarter of the credit conditions and the assumption that the total amount of capital of the enterprise has not changed, the average capital per 1% reduction can increase the loan of 15,661,540,000 yuan." Chen sincerely calculates the discovery.　　This new development loan does not include a reduction in the threshold of real estate development after the newly entered funds, so that the 2009 full year of real estate new funds at least 468 billion, for developers to ease the financial pressure. Property tax vision in the long run compared to the short-term capital ratio reduction, and then the property tax shows the central government to seek a healthy development of the real estate industry long-term thinking. "The levy of property tax is the healthy development of the real estate industry specimens and treatment measures."　　Mr Chan said.　　May 28, a person in the finance and taxation department told reporters that since the introduction of the tax authorities, has staged a lot of "wolf" story, but the end of the wolf did not come. Is property tax really that scary?　　Yang Hongxu, Minister of comprehensive Research at the Shanghai Institute of Real Estate, said the property tax would lead to a collapse in house prices. An important part of levying property tax is to abolish the land transfer payment. The main resistance of property tax is local government. According to statistics, the 2007 National land transfer gold as high as 1.3 trillion, 2008 960 billion. A person close to the Ministry of Land and resources to reporters that the government rent discriminating, and most of them are not included in the budget, the local government every year has tens of millions of dollars of money, "let them cut meat, is bound to play a heavy game."　　"At present, in the case of local financial difficulties, if land income is to be substantially reduced, there will be no consent from the local government." Theoretically speaking, property tax can promote the decline of house prices and promote the benign development of real estate. Mr Chan said. He analyzed that the levy of property tax would inevitably abolish land transfer, which would reduce local revenue, but would allow local governments to obtain a long-term tax. For developers, property tax can reduce development costs, can promote the decline in house prices. For consumers, the cost of home purchase is reduced but the cost of holding increases.　　For investors, property taxes have reduced their profit margins. And now the abnormal house price is caused by the land, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Deputy Director of the Center for International Financial Research fan, said: "When the local government to sell the land, it suddenly sold the 70-year right to use, which is very dangerous." ”