China economic Summer News: economic growth gives the world confidence

Editor's note: The following is a special report by CCTV economic channel "economic half-hour"-part of the 2009 China Economic Summer Report. Moderator Ma Hongtao: Hello audience friends, welcome to CCTV economic Channel launched a special program, the 2009 China Economic Summer newspaper. China's economy in the first half of 09 to show how the report card, today's news conference, the GDP in the first 6 months of this year, a growth of 7.1%, although from the target of 8% is still some distance, but the overall economy has a good warming momentum. When the world economy is in recession, the Chinese economy is able to create such a performance has been a global concern, how should we look at the critical period of China's economy, how to face the current difficulties and challenges, Today, our studio invited the chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, Mr. Yao Jingyuan, and Mr. Xia, director of the Finance Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, to interpret China's economic operation data, analysis of the background and role under the global financial crisis, our program has also been the strong support of investment securities, let us walk into today's special program,　　2009 China Economic Summer News. GDP grew 7.1% per cent year-on-year, with GDP growth of 7.9% in the second quarter, up 1.8% from the first quarter, according to Xiaochao, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics. In particular, the whole society fixed Assets investment, and the total retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year growth of 33.5% and 16.6% respectively, become the main factor driving economic growth.　　At the same time, consumer prices continue to decline, production prices fell more than a year earlier, the first half of the consumer prices down 1.1%, of which June year-on-year decline of 1.7%, reflecting the level of production price PPI fell 5.9% year-on-year, of which June year-on-year decline of 7.8%, the decline increased. Xiaochao: It is correct, timely and effective for the central government to implement the national financial crisis and to maintain a stable and rapid economic growth package. But we must also be sober to see that our economic stability, the basis of the recovery is not stable, the trend of recovery is still unstable, the rebound pattern is still uneven.　　As exports shrink, some enterprises are more difficult to produce and operate, corporate profits continue to decline, the increase in the government's financial incremental pressure is still very large, employment pressure is also relatively large.　　Ma Hongtao: Now let's take a look at the economic data released today with two guests, so first of all, I think the focus of public opinion is the growth of GDP, the first half is 7.1%, and the two quarter is to 7.9%, we have a horizontal and vertical two aspects of this 7.9 and 7.1 to make an interpretation. Yiu Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics: gross domestic product in the first half of 289.2 billion, should be said to come from difficult achievements, the first half of the growth of 7.1%, compared with the first quarter of 1%, The second quarter increased by 1.8% from the first half of the economy, and if the portrait ratio is the same as the last few quarters, it should be said that the Chinese economyThe overall economic downturn in the second half of the year is now being curbed. If you're going to make a horizontal comparison, now the world's major economies are in negative growth.　　China's growth is not only a further firm confidence in China's economic development, but also of great significance for our entire world to overcome this crisis and difficulties.　　Reading the scissors between GDP and CPI: deflation and inflation are hard to come by Ma Hongtao: There are comments that China's economy is already V-shaped, what do you think? Yao Jingyuan: China's economy in terms of industry, the most difficult period was last November, December and this December four months, the most difficult period for the overall economic growth is the 4 quarter of last year and the 1 quarter of this year, so it should be said that two quarters of 7.9% higher than our Chinese economy is now in a stable recovery,　　It is a basic condition to stabilize.　　Xia: It is not easy to stabilize the rally through such policies, the first is to stimulate investment, stimulate economic policies and moderately loose monetary policy, at the same time, I think the Chinese economy is relatively fast, relative to other countries, relatively fast recovery of the world economy has also played a good role. Ma Hongtao: In addition to GDP, the people are also concerned about CPI, the first two years of concern about the CPI because it rose a bit high, and now everyone is concerned because it is continuing to decline, we have a strong sense of future inflation expectations, so,　　Now there is a scissors between CPI and our continued rise in GDP, with GDP continuing to rise and CPI falling, how can this figure be explained more rationally? Yiu Jingyuan: CPI decline is like this, we are 6 months of the first half of this year, only January is a, behind is negative, our first half of the total down is negative 1.1%, we have a continuous five-month CPI negative growth. So this should be something that deserves our attention. Now there are two different opinions about Price, one is that we are likely to have inflation, and one suggestion is that we may enter into deflation. There are many reasons for inflation, and I personally feel that we will not see inflation in terms of the CPI trend. In addition to the CPI in the negative situation, there is another reason, in the macro economy, we have a situation of overcapacity. At the same time, the main problem of our principal contradiction is insufficient demand. So I think that under the condition of overcapacity and insufficient demand, it will be a strong constraint on the emergence of inflation. I think the problem of overcapacity and inadequate demand is still a major issue in the short term. So I don't think there will be any inflation in the short term.　　I say at least there will be no big inflation this year. Then will there be deflation, that is, from 5 consecutive months CPI is negative, the risk is not not. We have been in the Asian financial crisis for 1997 years, and after the Asian financial crisis we have been in the midst of an inflationary squeeze for five consecutive years. I think that the problem of deflation is not. Why, you note, now the Central Committee of the State Council, to guarantee growth, expand domestic demand in this series of measures, these measuresAt the same time, it is anti deflation measures. So I think as long as we implement the policy of the Central Committee of the State Council, deflation will not occur.　　　　For the whole year, I think it will remain basically stable throughout the year, and I think the CPI is still a few months in a row, and we may return to positive numbers by year-end. China's economy is Ma Hongtao from the real economy: As China's economy signs up, the slowdown in the country's foreign-exchange reserves has also shifted in the two quarter, adding $172 billion trillion in the two quarter to a total of more than $2 trillion trillion, which is linked to a still-growing trade surplus. By the end of June, the National foreign exchange reserve balance reached 2.1316 trillion U.S. dollars, due to the quarterly release of foreign exchange reserves, from the synchronized disclosure of monthly data, in fact, as early as April, our foreign exchange reserves have entered billion era.　　Part of it cannot be explained by simple CPI and foreign trade surpluses, which may be partly the form of hot money flowing into China. Now we have a discussion with two guests about foreign exchange reserves and international hot money, we often hear reports that there are many international hot money, the capital has entered our property market and the stock market, but the specific number, very few reports.　　I would like to ask the director of summer, do we have such a monitoring body in the domestic monitoring of these hot money? Xia: For the hot money from the perspective of monitoring, in the end how much of the capital, as if there is a research institution in Guangdong is often published, so accurate figures can hardly be clear, but from the first half of this year, especially after three months of the growth of foreign exchange reserves, the middle minus the normal surplus, So people in the market generally say, now this hot money is more, I also believe that. In particular, as China's asset prices rise relatively fast, China's relatively good economy, the general truth can be explained that foreign exchange money pressure is very large.　　From this point of view, I think, the media or experts, there is no way to talk about this problem, foreign exchange fund pressure is very large, but China's current regulatory provisions, illegal funds are also difficult to control, to strengthen management, strict management, or to strengthen.　　Ma Hongtao: I would like to ask Yao, the emergence of international hot money to our housing and stock market rebound and rise, how much factor? Yiu Jingyuan: I agree with the director of the summer, the international hot money has a lot of capital to enter, I find it difficult to define. But the irregularities, the illegal, this we should trust our country's foreign exchange processing department, they will be strictly controlled. I think this foreign exchange has increased to 2 trillion, even though our exports have been blocked, the exports are still larger than the imports in the first half of this year. Of course, we are currently such as the stock market, we are popular, then there is no capital, I think the director of the summer said very clearly, is that we can not define. But I think the current situation of our stock market, not only from hot money. The real economy is rebounding in the second quarter, and the recovery of the real economy will strongly support the stock market. Second of all of us in the second half of last year in the most difficultPeriod, the prime minister repeatedly warned us, we must be firm confidence. From the request made by the Prime Minister last year, we should say that we have basically solved the improvement of our confidence, whether we are government officials, entrepreneurs or ordinary people.　　So I think this is also the reason for the stock market to go well.　　Ma Hongtao: Now the audience is also worried that the increase in foreign exchange reserves will contain some risks, on the one hand, we are relatively fast growth of reserves, the time last year, now our foreign exchange reserves are twice times that of Japan, in the United States such a large number of printing money, our large foreign exchange reserves will lead to Xia: From the stock point of view, we have recognized that one is what we need to encourage the diversification of our foreign exchange reserves, such as gold, including after the residents get foreign exchange to travel ah, appropriate to relax some, can be. From an incremental perspective, we are actively involved in the improvement of the international monetary system.　　On the other hand, after our structural adjustment, especially in this area, the apparent pressure has increased and we are all aware of the problem. CCTV report: CCTV: The current need for moderately loose monetary policy CCTV: 2009 China Economic Summer Report Special report state news conference record