Coking coal price up to three companies will benefit

We believe that the shutdown of small coal mines, a significant reduction in the supply of coking coal, supply and demand relations improved, the price adjustment window gradually approaching. The demand for declining supply is recovering the outstanding feature of coal production in China is that the number of small and medium-sized coal mines is large, the proportion of production is big, this characteristic is more obvious in coking coal industry.　　Because of the high strength exploitation of coking coal resources and the relatively dispersed distribution of coking coal resources, and the small number of large coalfield, this has brought difficulties to the centralized mining of large coal mines, and also contributed to the large quantity of small and medium-sized coal mines in the supply of coking coal. Since 2003, the annual production of coking coal in China is about 91 billion tons, of which, the output of small and medium-sized coal mine is about 400 million tons, accounting for about 40% (much higher than the proportion of 20-30% in coal production in China).　　Shanxi Province is the most abundant coking coal resources, the largest production of the province, its coking coal annual output of about 240 million tons, of which, small and medium-sized coal mine output accounted for more than 50%, this proportion of the highest to reach more than 70%. Safety rectification has great influence on coking coal production. "Eleven-Five" before and after, the state began to gradually increase security and shut down not in line with the safety standards and industrial policies of small and medium-sized coal mine, since 2007, the reorganization policy is frequently alternating, recently as April 28, the NDRC and other four committee issued a notice for the national 300,000 tons and below, infrastructure, technical renovation Resource integration and normal production of small coal mines for a period of about 1.5 of the gas special remediation.　　May 7, the State administration of supervision issued a notice, requiring local governments to make small coal mine rectification shutdown planning, close does not have safe production conditions, does not conform to the State industrial policy of the mine, increase mine shutdown supervision and waste mine management work.　　Under the influence of the security reorganization and the integration policy, the production growth of large coal mines and small and medium sized coal mines is obvious, the output of large coal mine is steady increasing, the growth of small and medium sized coal mine is big decline or even has a big negative growth, so the coking coal production growth slows down even sharply In addition, the production of some small coal mines has not been included in the statistical range, but it does form a real supply.　　Therefore, the actual reduction in coking coal production may be much larger than the statistical data. Demand for coking coal is recovering, and prices are up to date. On the one hand, on the steel-Coke chain, the demand recovery of the iron and steel industry will lead to the resumption of coking coal demand, because the main large coking coal production enterprises in the early period is basically not limited, and small coal recovery slow, demand increase short-term will not bring production of a larger release, that is, coking coal supply relatively stable, so coking coal prices increase expectations.　　On the other hand, from the historical data trend, coking coal and coke, steel price trend is consistent, so in the steel, coke prices alternately rise, coking coal price trend is worthy of concern.　　How to choose the most flexible companies in the expectation of higher coking coal prices for beneficiary companies? We propose to choose from two aspects: per-share coking coal production and the net value of tons of coal (or the gross margin of coal for coking coal), which may be the most accurate, but may be affected by the cost allocation of different types of coal）。 From the production of coking coal per share, Taurus energy peaceful coal shares the highest, respectively, 6.25 kg/unit and 6.14 kg/unit, if Taurus energy to consider asset injection, the production of coking coal per share increase to 10 kilograms/share.　　Much higher than other coking coal listed companies. From a ton of coal net profit view, flat coal shares and Panjiang shares the lowest, respectively, 94.1 Yuan/ton and 132 yuan/ton, Panjiang shares if the asset injection, the ton of coal net income rose to about 250 yuan/ton.　　Therefore, from the point of view of the net profit of ton coal, the elasticity of the flat coal shares is the highest.　　In addition, coking coal gross margin can also be used as an important reference indicator, Panjiang shares, although the lowest, but the main reason is that in 2008, the purchase of the parent company coal washing dragged down the gross margin, if excluding Panjiang shares, the lowest for flat coal shares and Kailuan shares. Considering the above factors, the biggest performance elasticity of coking coal prices is the Taurus energy and peaceful coal shares.