Consensus expected: September increase in industrial size above the value of 13.4% growth

Source: Internet
Author: User
Keywords Year-on-year growth industrial value added scale above
by Hu junying October 15, "Securities Market Weekly" by the Sina Finance exclusive network released "Crystal Ball China's macroeconomic September consensus" shows that the September-year industrial growth rate of above average 13.4%, compared with the real value of August 13.9% reduced by 0.5%.  Consistent expected survey shows that the above-scale industrial growth rate is expected to be higher than 14.5%, the lowest value of 11.5%, expected median 13.5%. Statistics show that the increase in industrial scale above the year-on-year growth rate since the beginning of the year, after a continuous slowdown in August, the value of industrial growth rose slightly to 13.9%.  According to the survey, September returned to the downward trend. In a written interview, UBS Securities, Wang Tao, said that in the coming months, industrial output will continue to slow down with the implementation of energy-saving measures such as the shutdown of backward capacity and the expected drop in real estate construction activities.  Industrial growth is expected to grow at less than 10% in the fourth quarter of 2010.  But she believes that the annual growth in industrial production is still strong, up to 13-14%, thanks to the 2010 export recovery, the encouragement of strategic emerging industries, the government's promotion of urbanization and the promotion of public and secure housing construction.  Li Miaoxian, an international macro analyst at the bank, said in a telephone interview that the industrial value added has maintained a downward trend since the beginning of the year, as a result of the base and the government's energy conservation and emission reduction efforts, the September increase in industrial value continued to decline, is expected to reach 12.5% to 13% in the end  Lianping, chief economist at Bank of Communications (601328.SH/03328.HK), said in a study to reporters that companies were still in the inventory phase, and that the August inventory of finished goods and raw materials stocks continued to double down, and that the trend of shrinking industrial capacity had not changed.  With the global economic recovery sluggish and domestic economic slowdown, the future growth of social demand slowed down, industrial production will continue to tighten, but as companies enter the raw material replenishment inventory stage and the capacity utilization rate increase, the future industrial value added or is expected to stabilize. The agencies involved include BofA Merrill Lynch, Paris-France Securities, Standard Chartered Bank, Citibank, HSBC, Bank of China (601988.SH/03988.HK), ICBC (601398.SH/01398.HK), CICC, Wanguo, Merchants Securities (  600999.SH). End
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