Credit Red Line difficult Vietnam Bank to open issue limit loan to housing

According to government work report, 2010 new RMB loan target is about 7.5 trillion yuan.　　Analysts believe that, with real estate regulation, stronger inflationary expectations and stronger financial regulation, this goal may be difficult to transcend, or even exclude the possibility of new loans falling below this target. First of all, from the credit rhythm, management has made clear that this year will be balanced lending as the focus of supervision, according to the "3:3:2:2" quarterly ratio of the distribution of credit to the commercial banks, to prevent the loan fluctuations. According to sources, management has asked commercial banks in the first quarter of excess credit, in the two quarter together, the new credit in 4 May significantly slowed.　　This would avoid a situation where new loans were significantly larger than the targets set last year. Economic growth has been rising for several months this year, with CPI inflation exceeding 2% for 4 consecutive months. From the monetary level, the narrow currency (M1) growth rate is not only faster than the broad currency (M2), but also accelerated, at the end of April M1 year-on-year growth of 31.25%. The rapid growth of M1 shows that economic activity is very active, and also indicates that inflationary pressure is increasing.　　Central bank in the first quarter of the monetary policy performance report in the first year to stabilize the overall level of prices, indicating that the pressure and difficulty in controlling price increases. Analysts believe that May-August inflationary pressures, CPI year-on-year rise may be more than 3% of the cordon.　　In this case, the central bank may reduce the price upward pressure by tightly controlling the money supply, the most effective means is to control the credit gate. In order to consolidate the macro-control effect, the central bank has raised the reserve requirement ratio Three degrees this year, tightening the liquidity of the banking system is very obvious.　　Some banks ' loan-to-deposit ratio exceeds the regulatory requirements and the capital adequacy ratio is insufficient, which greatly reduces the impulse of endogenous lending of commercial bank business expansion and the weighting of risky assets. Second, in order to control risk, banks are also actively shrinking credit.　　The strict credit standard greatly constrains the impulse of the Commercial bank's credit release. At present, the bank is to "unpack and restore" the risk of local financing platform, increase the unsecured, unsecured, no cash flow of the platform loan provision. In addition, since the implementation of the April real estate policy, financial institutions have been on the real estate loans on the brakes. Personal housing mortgage loan 70 percent discount rate completely disappeared, many buyers began to wait and see.　　The adoption of more stringent loan-to-value ratio and higher mortgage interest rates on two or more housing units has led to a sharp drop in mortgage lending by commercial banks while curbing speculative demand.　　Some experts said that the banking regulator this year to push the fine management of loans to some extent to curb the credit impulse, the change from "time to Time" to "time loan" changed the performance of commercial banks to derive their deposits through loans, and avoided the credit scale phenomenon of commercial banks at the end of the quarter. Third, in order to tie in with real estate regulation, the recent regulatory authorities strictly control commercial Bank housing development loans. The CBRC expressly requires commercial banks to strictly implement the "three not-credit" principle for real estate development loans. To the Department of Territorial AdministrationInvestigate and confirm that there are idle land, fry the behavior of the real estate enterprises, not to issue new loans, the housing construction department to investigate and identify the cover plate reluctant, hoarding houses, driving up the price of real estate developers no longer loans, the misappropriation of bank loans to pay land transfer gold real estate enterprises do not lend. Several banks have imposed a "credit limit" on housing development loans. Generally speaking, real estate loans accounted for about 20% of Commercial bank loans, and the regulation of real estate directly led to the decline of the commercial banks ' credit. More importantly, because the real estate industry and a number of industries closely related to the real estate regulation to a certain extent will lead to the decline of capital demand for related enterprises, increase the inhibition of credit demand. (Reporter Zhang Zhahui)