Cross-bank test: The risk can be controlled by many people think: credibility is not high

This newspaper Hangzhou August 22 reporter Jintao Intern Gu Jing window Bank of communications first announced a new round of mortgage pressure test results, it is clear that the relevant parties relieved-even if the housing price assumption fell 50%, the bank's mortgage risk remains manageable. Reporters today learned from the relevant parties, in addition to the bank, other banks, the second round of mortgage pressure test is underway, this month is expected to release the test results.　　From the current test progress, the final results of the banks are generally similar to the bank, in the case of heavy price decline in the assumption, the majority of bank credit assets safety factor is still relatively reliable, the mortgage business compliance risk and operational risk are within the controllable range. The bank's new round of mortgage-testing results showed that, even with a 50% per cent drop in housing prices, the bank's non-performing rate for state-financed loans increased by only 1.6%, and the non-performing rate of private-mortgage loans increased by only 1.2% per cent, according to the report, which was released recently.　　The bank's head said that this means that even in extreme cases, the impact of non-performing loan rates is limited and the overall risk of mortgages is manageable. Mortgage pressure testing began in May this year, the CBRC asked commercial banks to light, medium and heavy three different pressure scenarios designed to carry out real estate loan pressure test. In early August, the CBRC also asked commercial banks in 7 cities, including Hangzhou, to carry out a second round of heavy stress tests on home loans, which were adjusted to 30%, 40% and 50% per cent of the three different pressure scenario designs, with the test "pressure" unprecedented. The first release of the bank was the second round of test results.　　So how do you look at this test result? Du Zhiliang, director of the Shenzhen Development Bank's Hangzhou branch, said that it would be more appropriate to use the results of the mortgage stress test as a reference rather than a judgment on market conditions. According to its disclosure, the home loan pressure test is the expert judgment method, including setting the pressure situation, analyzing the borrower's cash flow, the financial cost changes when the first repayment source influence degree, the analysis mortgage income to cover the loan principal and interest situation, the comprehensive appraisal judgment borrower repayment loan principal and interest ability and so on.　　So, from a process design perspective, the test is fairly targeted. But there are also many who believe that the results of the housing pressure test is not credible. The financial director of a real estate company in the province said that the housing pressure test was carried out under the circumstances of artificial assumption, and the real situation of the market was not small. First, she says, the housing pressure test is only static, measuring only one industry. If real-estate prices fall by 50%, and the central bank increases the benchmark interest rate by 108, it may not be just a matter of property, but a lot of real estate-related industries, and second, despite the small market share of banks ' mortgages and the division of Customer groups,　　But the test model is the same because of the stress test scenario design, so the banks ' final results are mostly sorta, which will affect their credibility to a considerable extent. Zhejiang Banking Regulatory Bureau spokesperson in an interview, said the CBRC asked the businessBanks to carry out the stress test, more as a bank's internal testing, mainly to see how the quality of bank credit assets under different pressure environment. On this basis, the bank will be urged to raise the risk awareness, and further improve the risk prevention work.