Does the negative growth in short-term loans imply that economic recovery is a sham

Sub-department, the first quarter of the non-financial companies and other sectors of the loan increase of 444.6 billion yuan, more than 49 billion yuan, of which, short-term loans to reduce 78.6 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 374.4 billion yuan, Bill financing increased by 125.7 billion yuan. According to the feedback from each commercial bank, the growth rate of short-term loans of commercial banks is higher than the published data-78.6 billion yuan, several joint-stock bank loan balance even negative growth.　　We think that the main reason is that the central bank in the "first quarter monetary policy implementation report" revealed in the late March commercial banks "rush point" factor, and led to April have to digest these factors, resulting in the April short-term loan balance decline. The most important reason, we think, is that the production and business activities of the company are not as good as the one-quarter macro-data show. From the PMI index, production continued to rebound, but financial data does not support industrial production data, constitute a certain deviation.　　There are two sides to this divergence: the contrast between fast-growing monetary credit and a relatively slow real economy will increase the risk of economic volatility and the risk of a rebound in non-performing loans. On the other hand, even taking into account the March Commercial Bank "Rush point" factor, can also be sure of the April short-term loans negative growth, short-term loans to a certain extent, the negative growth of the economy is not as the GDP figures show-continued to rebound optimistic situation. Interest rates on short-term loans have fallen a lot, and companies have cut short-term loans, indicating that companies will not be willing to renew after short-term loans expire.　　This is also supported by the growth in medium-and long-term loans: from 1 to April, medium-and long-term lending reflects a step-by-step approach to national planning projects, and private sector lending needs have picked up, but the pace of recovery has been slow.　　Similarly, April's fine data also supported this – in April business demand deposits grew little, on the contrary, fixed-term deposits grew faster. Of course, some commercial banks in the first quarter of high-speed lending, the rapid reduction in loans to lend more cautious, is also a reason.　　According to the data published in the first quarter, the excess reserve ratio of shareholding commercial banks has dropped to 0.5%, which reflects the rapid decline of the liquidity of joint-stock commercial banks. -From the state letter securities Forest Pine State financial data reviews: Does the negative growth of short-term loans imply that economic recovery is a sham? 》