Double-wheel drive to ease a a-share shock market difficult to return to the file has a mystery

A-share market has a unique phenomenon and recently intensified-often the large weight stocks, many small and medium-sized stocks will fall, small and medium stocks strong on the occasion, the market weight shares but repeatedly fell. Over time, investors formed a consensus, once the market weight of the restless, we will avoid the fear, have shipped out.　　Market expectations of weight stocks and small and medium-sized stocks can live in harmony, the weight of the plate does not need to swarmed, do not soaring, "Take it Easy", small and medium stocks in the power not to cool the market weight, "double wheel drive" to jointly push the market forward. Repeatedly hit the new highs of the concussion should be in the middle to this week, the Shanghai Composite Index again hit a new high on the rally, compared with the historic low of 1664 points, the rise has reached 1000 points.　　It is true: the two sides of the air, the stock index has been mountains million. Economic data remain weak, with the CPI index of 1.5% per cent released this week, with the PPI index, which is more stressful, to 6.6% and has not yet formed a stop-fall inflection point. Interestingly, the stock market is still going higher, creating a six-year high this week. In this half year, as if the economic data has not been better, because of poor economic data, almost all people are not optimistic about the first half of this year's stock market, but the stock market has been rising continuously, and six months up 60%, such a rise to be judged at any time, is great bull market Ah!　　The stock market seems to be always playing a big joke on the people, in turn, if most people are bullish on the market this year, perhaps there will not be 1000 points of increase. The current stock market is driven by capital, since this year, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market volume on the daily turnover of 200 billion yuan above, even if it is a deep adjustment, the daily transaction amount is not less than 200 billion yuan, the market has not only new funds to intervene, but also a large number of multiple-empty role of frequent swaps, regardless of the rise and fall, how How much money to enter, so as to enter the third two, into two of the rhythm of the return of the stock index to push the higher step. Every record of the stock market creates a new high, which leads to a huge drop in pressure and a deep downward adjustment, however, the flood of funds into the market, so that the stock index again higher.　　The stock market has been a huge shock this year, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged. Unconsciously, the Shanghai Composite Index has come to 200多 points above the year's position, which should be attributed to the rise in the stock index, but also thanks to the annual line down. The current year line position has dropped to 2,380 points, it is worth noting that 60 daily average is about to the previous year line, the next wait is half a year line more than the last line, is expected in the first half of the 2,300 point of the line will be more than the previous year, the time is about one months. If the six-year line more than the previous year, the significance of the index of the average system all become a long arrangement, such a battle in the second half of this year's market trend relationship is significant. Therefore, in the six months of the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1000 points of the situation, the market early adjustment than late adjustment, active adjustment than passive adjustment better. In today's exponential position, even if the 200-point deep adjustment, will not change the six months to create theAscending channel. This year's stock market operation is extremely good, this is because the market fluctuation is big and fluctuates frequently, this is a gospel for the investor who has the short-term operation experience, does the stock not afraid to rise is not afraid to fall, the most feared share price lies in there not to rise not to fall, this has no chance. In the recent market can take the following operational strategies: first, each record of a new high can be a profit, waiting for the market to reduce the depth, and this is always the fall; second, the hands of the chips can also be distributed high, but in the deep adjustment to do short back, short back to fill is a kind of operation discipline;　　In these 1000 points of the rally in the instead Ta Kong, can take advantage of the market callback at the time of the entry, if not found good varieties, can be discounted in the closed-end funds arbitrage, such varieties of operation can say long and short fry two affordable. Control the position still can risk seeking Li Zhilin (advice) since May, although the index has increased by 200 points, but the market activity and profit-making effect is far less than the previous months, the market trend can be "trembling" four words summarized.　　But I think, control the position and variety, still can risk seeking. First, the April economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in January-April investment growth of 30.5%, M1 growth of 17.48%, M2 growth of 21.95%, revenue fell 13.6%, April output was down 3.5%, The decline was 2.2% per cent last month, with industrial growth above 7.3%, 8.3% lower than last month's 1%. As industry accounts for about 40% per cent of China's economy, it shows that China's economic trend is still grim. Exports fell 22.6% per cent year-on-year in April, and exports contributed negatively to economic growth this year for the first time in 30 years. In view of this, economic growth "guarantee eight" can only rely on investment and consumption to further increase.　　This is the stock market in particular the weight of the trend twists, frequent diving deep reasons. Second, in the impact of 2,500 points, 2,600-point integer off, the market weight of continuous volume on the attack, resulting in a false rise in the index, most of the stock fell.　　The market began to popular "large market stocks are not a complement but the leading", "market style is changing", "after the 5 30 market is about to repeat" the public opinion, intensified the people to the market will be blood loss, the big market will peak worries, leading to the subject stock fall, large stocks were forced back Third, at the top of the 2,600 point, the market to the IPO dispute to ease the issue of the reform of the IPO when announced? There is no clear statement yet. Is restarting the IPO at 2,800 or 3,000? No one can predict.　　This is likely to trigger market volatility, sharp adjustment of the uncertainty, is the market becomes more and more hesitant the biggest factor. Four, according to my summary of the Chinese stock market "winter sowing Spring" theory, the annual New Year's Day before the "winter" of the stock, May before the end of the best "Spring Harvest" season. Since May 28 as the "Dragon Boat Festival" holiday, May only 8 days left, next week is the May season of the last week, do not open a new warehouse, the cautious mood will inevitably spread, shocks must intensify, especially pulled upWeight shares. But markets still have the impetus to move higher. First, every week there are one or two positive economic stimulus, the government's confidence and determination are bigger than the investors, giving the market a good forecast and the stock market not meeting the top; second, April M1 growth of 17.48%, indicating that liquidity is still abundant; third, the market has not put the amount of days, small and medium-sized plate subject and large stocks have not reproduced "5 30" and 10 16 "When the madness, the market price/earnings ratio is still 23-25 times, is a bull when the start of a reasonable valuation, even if the wild pull the market to peak weight of the band peaked, not this year's peak; four, the market at 2,500 and 2,600 points above all consecutive close 5 days, 2,500 point platform plate more solid, And every day there are turns to adjust, wash the plate, is obviously for innovation and high readiness; Five, the index is above the year line nearly 200 points, above 5 week line 100 points, and stands on several EMA, the upward trend remains intact, trend investor will continue to do long. Therefore, the market still has regained last May-August 2,500 point-2,800 point box capacity, as long as the control of the position and variety, investors still have the opportunity to seeking risk. (the author of the ECNU Enterprise and Economic Development Institute Director, Ph. D.) The market is difficult to file a large return of the mystery Wang Limin from 1664 points up so far, the market has been nearly 1000 points, although the sound of empty, but the market is still hesitant to continue upward. As the index gets higher, investors who are worried that the market will peak seem to be getting more and more, but the market is still not over. Where is the mystery?　　A closer look at some of the data on recent funding may help us make the right judgment. The latest statistics from the company show that last week's participation in a share account suddenly increased to more than 20 million households, including a significant increase in sellers. The accounts of a-shares fell 330,000 from last week, the first drop in nearly 5 weeks, and the share of a-share accounts declined.　　The figures suggest that many of the old investors, who have endured a big bear market, are now taking the strategy of getting more and more tossed. The more the old investor throws, the higher the index rises, and where do these chips go? The latest data show that last week the Shanghai and Shenzhen two new A-share account 296,900 households, a sharp increase in the previous week 31.9%; Note In the old shareholders have to lose pounds, new investors, New Kimin is flocking to the market, directly or indirectly to take the chips. According to media reports last week, as the market rose, the number of tradable shares held by institutions has increased by 5.91%, while natural-person holdings have fallen from 51.29% to 45.39%.　　The data suggest that a considerable number of retail chips have flowed into the institutions ' pockets. Thus, in the absence of new shares in the opening of the case, the limited chips are from the hands of many old investors into the hands of fresh investors and institutions. The intriguing part is that chips are becoming scarce compared with the money that is flowing in. So, in the short termThe balance of chips and money is clearly tilted towards the latter. From the supply side, the gem for the draft is still in the process of consultation, it is estimated that the real gate opening to at least until August.　　Even if the gem gate, due to limited market, I am afraid it is difficult to change the status of chip scarcity, in order to ensure the successful launch of the gem, it is estimated that the IPO will not restart for a long time. Financial resources appear to be extremely abundant. It was reported that 4 funds (3 of which were biased) had been approved in the last three working days of April, and that 8 funds (of which 7 were biased) had been issued since May. It is worth mentioning that, with the fund sales heating up, the festival before the release of the long Sheng with the separation of funds actually need to queue for purchase, the subscription is exhausted, circulation up to 15 billion yuan. Therefore, with the spread of money-making effect, the increment of the new fund cannot be underestimated.　　On the other hand, the industry is concerned about the fund "a One-to-many" household finance this week has been approved by the SFC, the threshold of 1 million yuan, will be opened in June, in the stock market steady upward background, this is a strong market "reserve army." To sum up, when many investors see the market rose 1000 points hurriedly drop bag for Ann, but there are many of the market has not earned money people are running to enter, is said to be "someone resign back to their hometown, someone starry Night exam tide." Although both have their own reasons, but if we do not see the line from 1664 to 2,660 points, but to see the fall from the 6,124 point of the paragraph, it may be understood that the current runners are not necessarily not without great wisdom. (The writer is a well-known market analyst) from the Ministry of Industry and Steel production Gui Haoming recently issued a notice to the Ministry of Industry, the steel companies to limit output.　　In the impression that central government agencies are rare to issue a restraining order on a commodity, it is clear that people should not just look at it from the perspective of industry development, but to think more deeply. This year, with the help of the government's 4 trillion economic stimulus package, China's economy has shown signs of gradual warming, with domestic steel prices rising at the beginning of a row. However, after entering March, steel prices fell again and momentum is fierce, leading to the steel association exclaimed: Steel prices have fallen to 1994 years of level.　　It is in this context that the Ministry of Industry has issued a notice restricting steel production. Domestic steel prices are very poor, and industry concentration is low, some small and medium-sized steel enterprises disorderly competition. As domestic steel production capacity is large, and the majority of manufacturers want to expand, so no matter what the market demand, production has been not down, the March average daily output of the estimated output will reach more than 500 million tons, more than last year's level. Now domestic demand for steel is significantly lower than last year, because of price factors, the current domestic steel products in the international serious lack of competitiveness, the month of China became a net importer of steel. Not strict control of production, will lead to more disorderly competition, triggering the loss of the entire industry. In fact, the stock market has reacted to the current state of the steel industry, and the valuation of steel stocks has been set at a lower levelThere is a rebound and it is unsustainable. Strict control of steel production can avoid blind competition, so that prices remain at a more reasonable level, the relevant enterprises can avoid losses.　　But it is bound to lead to some spare capacity, and the low valuation pattern of steel stocks will continue. The above is from the steel industry point of view, from the macro-economic point of view, people will find more clearly. The same production, last year, the product can sell high prices, this year, the low price also sell not move, this shows that the demand is out of the question. From this year's steel sales, high end of the plate sales situation is very poor, low-end construction steel situation slightly better, but the price level varies greatly. From this, people cannot but worry about the foundation of China's economic recovery solid? The difficulty of high-end steel sales indicates that the relative prosperity of advanced manufacturing industry is still low, and low-end construction steel is not good, indicating that the construction industry, especially the real estate sector is not optimistic. Steel industry as a large industry, linked to the upstream and downstream links, the steel industry recession, coke, iron ore, transport, electricity and other upper industries are bound to be affected, but also indicate the downstream of shipbuilding, construction, machinery and equipment and other industries are not ideal.　　As a result, when the Ministry of Industry informed the restrictions on steel production, people felt not only a signal of mandatory adjustment of the steel sector, but also from other industries, the coolness of the silk. Of course, there is reason to believe that as 4 trillion of investment gradually effect, the pace of China's economic recovery will be accelerated, domestic demand for steel will return to normal levels, steel prices will inevitably rebound smoothly. But right now it's only a speculation that rational investors will not be overly optimistic about the prospects for growth at this point.　　With a deep understanding of the industry's decision to limit steel production, there will be a rational expectation of the future of the economy and, of course, a more cautious outlook on how the stock market will move forward, at least not now about what big blue chips are going to lead the performance-driven market.　　(The writer is the chief analyst of Wanguo Institute) the Association and Revelation of the earthquake Wen Xing's "5·12" the day before the closing index is 3,626 points, five or six months after the stock market to 1600 points, in other words, the stock market also has an "earthquake." A year to see the experience of the many things, the author here quotes a friend to me a text message, do not have a taste in it: Last year at this time, go out to avoid earthquakes; this year, at home to avoid the flu; At this time last year, nothing at home, this year, nothing to stay outside; Short message is not long, but very general, words are not much, but read already tearful　　In the face of such a year, touching our own softness, do you say anything more condensed than it? A year ago "5·12", we can only evacuate, away from the earthquake, also away from the 3,626 point, has been back to 1600 points. Now we are trembling from 1600 points to 2,600 points, and "5·12" retreat from the point of view, we have not regained the lost ground, but the important thing is that we have begun to regain the lost ground, this is aThe most memorable and memorable years. We are still waiting for the second wave of financial turmoil, waiting for the collapse of house prices, in fact, we should not be so worried about. I wonder if my friends remember the text of "message tree" in Chinese books when we were children. That is in the anti-Japanese war period, as long as the mountain tree did not fall, that the devil did not come, the villagers should do why. The tree fell is to tell everyone the devil is coming, we Chan to avoid them.　　Now the stock market seems to have a "message tree", as long as it does not fall, people can feel at ease holding, there is no need to always run to the top of the hill to see, and then run down to do something. Return to the stock market, unless you have a plan, also do not have nothing to do. Interestingly, the author in two times when the market fell back to see the financial TV in Shanghai, twice saw a man and a woman two guests in the discussion of the stock market, two are the author's friends, the male guests are determined to see more, resolute shareholding; The funny thing is, a firm look more, the day the market plunged; another empty and recommended stock, rose well. In fact, the two guests are bulls, now it is difficult to find short, because the empty people do not look at the stock market, do something else.　　And see many also have no money to "long". The author is more appreciative of one of the guests, the trend has not changed, the operation is unchanged. The previous author said the "Message tree" story, the stock market "message tree" where? 100 people may have 100 answers. The author's answer is that the "message tree" of the stock market is the trend. Different methods of people look at the trend is different, short-term to see the short trend, long-term trend of looking long, and so do not have nothing to do.　　Can you expect that last year's pig will become a pig crazy this year? Wenchuan the first anniversary of the earthquake, like everyone else, the author also thought a lot of understand some, also have not understand, the above articles are heartfelt and hair, feel and stay, in short, live well, do not have nothing to do, compared with the earthquake, we are more happy, compared to 6,000 points and 3,626 points (the earthquake in the stock market point),　　Don't we have a lot of chances?　　When will the IPO be restarted? Lu Shuixi (AKI) formula = Performance Change x valuation standard changes, the same company fundamentals unchanged, the performance is expected to be unchanged, the valuation standard is 15 times times or 30 times times P/E ratio between 100% fluctuations.　　In this round of quotes, the Shanghai Composite Index is the biggest increase of 60%, a share of doubling, and the last four quarter and the first quarter of this year, the contribution of the performance of the listed companies is-36%, which intuitively shows that the period is entirely by the liquidity catalytic market valuation changes. When liquidity becomes the core driving force of the market, the main factor influencing the fluctuation is the change of supply and demand relationship. The previous market liquidity drive is strong, because the IPO pause in the future to be ridiculed by the lack of supply ", while some of the size of the reduction, but the global currency volume expansion, credit excess release, industrial capital spillover and so on the market supply and demand relationship is basically" need "unipolar state. Market principles Tell Me, the single pole "need" in the supply and demand relationship is impossible to be sustained, therefore, the concern about the change of market supply and demand has become the core factor of judging the late market strength.　　In the market liquidity is still relatively abundant situation, compared to the introduction of gem, the reduction of the non-tradable, refinancing start-up, the real impact of the late supply and demand relationship and market expectations and then affect the market liquidity mood, is currently investors "quiz" when the IPO will restart. "Quiz" when the IPO will restart nothing more than two landmark nodes, one is the market node, the second is the time node. From the market node, it is widely believed that blue-chip start-up, the basis for the market to do, at 2,800 points-3,000 points to restart the IPO is the most likely. Now that blue chips have started as expected, the market is approaching 2,800 points. When most investors expect a 2,800-point IPO to restart, can the market actually reach 2,800 points-3,000 points?　　In view of this, the "IPO will restart" The market node is not a major factor. From the point of view of the time node, there are two points are ok: First, the IPO will be restarted during the year, and the second is the IPO restart will not be with the launch of the gem "Crash." At present, most of them think that the launch of the gem is about August, so, the Board IPO restart on the gem before the launch of the possibility is much greater than the launch of the gem. The reason is simple, if the motherboard IPO restart on the gem launched and stable operation of 1, 2 months time, after the end of the year, "the 2008 IPO debt has not paid off", how will it be dragged to the end of this year, if the market again abnormal factors, and then dragged to next year? After the impact of the financial crisis and the impact of the 34 companies which have been in the meeting in 2008, some of them may not be able to meet the financial conditions of listing, and will they be sent back to the "queue for reconsideration" after next year?　　Moreover, the Shanghai "two centers" of the determination is also catalyzing the motherboard IPO early restart. Obviously, the motherboard IPO restart on the gem before the possibility of greater, if the market stability factors, the main board IPO restart the most likely time node is June. Since the newly revised IPO system needs to be "reviewed" before the IPO is restarted, this means that the public's focus on IPO restart has actually gone from "months" to "days".