Economic boom continues to rise analysis of the likelihood of raising interest rates less

June financial data showed that economic prosperity continued to improve, credit structure also to the direction of regulatory expectations.　　Analysts point out that for the "hurricane" of money and credit, the future central bank's regulation of monetary credit may be increased, but the increase in statutory reserve requirements and the possibility of starting interest rate increases in the year is unlikely. "Trumpet" sharply narrowed as the M1 growth rate continued to rise and faster than M2 growth, the "trumpet" (M2-M1), which measures economic prosperity, has fallen for 5 consecutive months since it reached its all-time high of 12.1% in January this year; June is 3.67%, compared with last month's 7.1%　　Shrank by 3.4%.　　Lu Commissar, chief economist of Societe Generale Capital Operations Center, believes that the main reasons for the narrowing of the trumpet are as follows: Bill financing continues to decline; Analysts believe that M1 faster growth, indicating consumption and end-market activity increased.　　In the acceleration of investment in the situation, consumption is active, the second half of the demand level will show a more determined rebound trend.　　However, the June currency liquidity ratio (M1/M2) was 0.339, still at a historically low level, indicating that business investment activities were still not active enough.　　The credit structure continued to improve at the end of June, with credit balances growing at 34.44% per cent, up 3.83% from 30.6% last month, as credit growth accelerated for the 10th consecutive month since the bottom of last August, a growth rate that reached its all-time high since 1998 years of statistical data. Bill financing fell sharply. June non-financial companies new RMB loans 12272.55 trillion, of which bill financing 12.8 billion yuan, accounting for about 1%, the 5th consecutive month of decline.　　Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline of bill financing was the adjustment of financial institutions, the rising interest rate of bill financing and the expiration of large amount of bills.　　Enterprises in the medium and long term loans 778.1 billion yuan, accounting for the current month of non-financial companies to increase the proportion of new loans 63.4%, the credit structure further improved.　　By the real estate, the automobile market heat continues to raise the influence, the resident household credit growth rate accelerates. Regulation will increase the current both M2 and GDP growth, or narrow-sense currency M1 and industrial growth rate of the difference, are already at an all-time high. Zhang Jianhua, director of the PBC Research Bureau, wrote earlier that, from historical data analysis, if M1 in more than 20%, prices in the first half of next year there is a certain acceleration of the upward risk.　　and June M1 growth has jumped to 24.79%, the future price upward pressure has emerged.　　At the same time, due to the sharp gap between the real economy and the money supply growth, increasing the attractiveness of asset market to the currency, easy to lead to the rapid rise in asset prices, increasing the future asset market because of the likely relative slowdown in currency growth and the real economic recovery slower than expected decline in the risk. Therefore, analysts said that the future monetary policy focus should be "relaxed" to "moderate". There are signs that the central bank has begunFine。 The central bank's attitude has been expressed by the resumption of a one-year central vote, the three-week increase in open market operating rates, and by the bank's private issuance of directional votes to financial institutions.　　Lu Commissar believes that the future central Bank of monetary and credit regulation will increase, but the annual increase in statutory reserve requirements and the possibility of starting interest rates is not. Shanghai Securities analyst Hu Yuaxiao published a report that in the capital market, the Chinese construction IPO means the resumption of large-cap IPO, which means that the capital market's ability to digest capital greatly improved. By increasing the ability of financial market to absorb liquidity, the pressure of central bank to regulate liquidity will be relieved to a great extent.　　The implementation of the RMB Cross-border trade settlement system has also opened a new method for the adjustment of the fluctuation of foreign exchange reserves to the impact of money supply.　　From the published financial, financial and generating data, as well as industry forecasts, two-quarter economic data will be the spring fade a quarter. Analysts point out that the future central bank's regulation of money and credit may be increased, but it is unlikely to raise the statutory reserve requirement ratio and start interest rate hikes during the year.