"Elephants" dance or lead the market to reproduce "after 5 30" quotes

Continue to steadily rise through the 2,700-point period-the Great Wall securities Zhang Yong last week to record a new high after the market continued to maintain a moderate upward trend. The volatility in the stock index plate has intensified, the plate hot spot differentiation is obvious, the structural difference is obviously enlarged.　　To China Petroleum, Sinopec as the representative of the weight of the "dance", while the small and medium-sized plate subject unit as the representative of the medium and small-sized stock most of the adjustment. From a fundamental point of view, the April macro data is still mixed with worry, the spread of the swine flu also caused by the disturbance of investor mentality. The number of energy-generating data most concerned by investors fell in early May, while some urban property transactions shrank again.　　We believe that although a-shares still face a number of negative factors, but the shock plate is still the main tone, under the strong blue chip led, the market steadily rise and create a rebound new high probability. First, the recent market is still likely to replicate the trend after the 2007 5 30. We describe a complete set of rising prices, often by the low price of the subject unit to start, into the middle and late into the blue chip led, the index to accelerate the completion of the top end of a round of rising prices. From the current market trend of blue chips, the interval is still far behind the market average level, bubble is not serious. Banks, iron and steel, petroleum and petrochemical, such as the weight of the stock plate valuation level is still reasonable, so have the internal impetus to lead the market upward. The market is not over until the market has finished accelerating the rally. However, we can not simply analogy, the 2007 macro-economic growth period, growth can most of the solution to the high valuation pressure, and the current economic recovery period, the performance growth of listed companies still have greater uncertainty.　　The level of reasonable valuations will remain at around 30 times times, and will not repeat the frenzied bubble of more than 60 times times in 2007. Second, the positive policy is expected to further strengthen, and constantly generate new hot spots to stimulate market sentiment. As the prospects for macroeconomic recovery remain uncertain, the government's support for macroeconomic recovery is also increasing, and the increasing investment is expected to push for a speedy recovery of the macro economy. Figures released May 12 by the National Bureau of Statistics show that Urban fixed assets investment remained as high as 30.5% of the growth, of which state-owned and state-controlled investment completed 1.6055 trillion yuan, an increase of 39.3%, the central project investment 346.6 billion yuan, the year-on-year increase of 29.3%, local project investment 3.3617 trillion yuan, the year-on-year increase of 30.6%. The top ten industrial revitalization plans are still in the further implementation of the regional revitalization planning will be introduced in succession. These measures have led to a new hot market, stimulating market sentiment. Of course, the economic recovery is not smooth sailing. In early May, the State Grid power Distribution center's electricity output fell 3.9% Year-on-year, the decline was more than April later expansion; Beijing's recent real estate deals have fallen for five consecutive weeks, suggesting that the outlook for real estate recovery remains unclear.　　But on the whole, recovery and rebound are the main keynote of the economy, and some of the data is too cold to suggest that the economy is still in a slump. Third, A shares of the overall still not bad money, createThe introduction of the industry board and the impact of the reduction of the non-tradable is still partial and temporary. The company's statistics show that last week a-share new account opened 295925 households, 71515 more than the previous week to increase for the first time in four weeks, the same period, participating in the transaction of a shares of 20.1533 million households, compared to the previous week to increase 5.5925 million households. With the rise of the stock index and the spread of the profit-making effect, the investor's mentality gradually warmed up and the investment continued to be active. Although the recent growth of the gem process significantly accelerated, but did not have a significant impact on the market, indicating that its impact has already been early digestion.　　Non-tradable shares in the recent increase in the price of the reduction of strength, but not on the market or even related to a larger share of the impact, indicating that with the full flow of the process of speeding up, the non-tradable factors may no longer be a major factor in restricting the rebound in the market.　　Looking to the market short-term trend, the stock index in the vicinity of 2,600 points after a rest, the high technical indicators have recovered, so it is still expected to continue to run along the upward channel, wearing 2,700 points will gradually mature. In the operational strategy, we suggest that the industry to pay attention to improve the industry, the focus is still the recent price of products companies, steel, petrochemical, chemical fiber, water and other plate short-term opportunities. At the same time, the industry recovery sales rebound plate also need to focus attention, such as automobiles, real estate and so on. Theme of the main line of investment, the short-term bio-pharmaceutical sector has risen too large, the proposed avoidance, and regional hot spots can still continue to pay attention, which focus on Shanghai local stocks, benefiting from the Expo, Disney and "Double Center", whether in the short or medium term, the plate has greater investment opportunities, Investors can focus on the Shimao shares, Chinese enterprises, Jinjiang investment and so on.