Experts say the price of agricultural production entering high cost period is bullish

Prices rose to a 25-month high in October, and food prices rose 10.1% in the new price factor, contributing 74% to the CPI rise.　　For a time, the rising prices of agricultural products have again aroused hot debate. In response to this round of agricultural prices, there have been "imbalance between supply and demand", "the middle price increase said" "Hot money Speculation theory" and many other explanations.　　To find out the truth, the reporter in-depth research in Henan, Shandong, Guangxi and other major agricultural production areas. The reason 1 agricultural cost grain production mainly relies on the chemical fertilizer to prop up by the petroleum, the coal and so on resources commodity price rise influence, in recent years, the fertilizer, the pesticide and so on agricultural product price overall presents the upward trend.　　And because of "energy shortage" long-term existence, determines the cost of agricultural production is difficult to decline. In Jiyang County, Shandong Province, farmers Zhengqing detailed to the reporter calculate a sum of input, an acre of wheat production input of about 450 yuan: agricultural machinery collection cost nearly 100 yuan, a season of wheat poured three times water about 60 yuan, fertilizer about 220 yuan, pesticides about 60 yuan, seeds about 10 yuan.　　According to the wheat yield of 400 kg per mu and current grain prices, agricultural costs offset the gross income of about 56%. "Relative to the rise in fertilizer prices, the current increase in food prices are not big." "Shandong Province Juye County large grain Wang Jingshan rent 200 acres of land." Now, he says, it is unlikely that yields will increase significantly in the short term, and that production is largely propped up by fertiliser.　　In recent years, most of the agricultural prices have doubled, but the benefits of grain is often hovering in the margin of loss. In the fields of vegetables, fruits and other agricultural products, there is also the phenomenon of high agricultural cost. Henan province Shangqiu Old vegetable farmer Kim Yo-rong said, fertilizer, pesticide price rises every year, now vegetable cost is higher than before, a pack of 50 kilograms heavy compound fertilizer price to more than 180 yuan, spring fertilization season price more expensive.　　Kim Yo-rong This year 15 acres of eggplant, 6 acres of watermelon, most of the investment is spent on agricultural. "These 10 years, many industrial products prices have doubled several times, but wheat, corn price increases of only about 40%, this is more?"　　Many farmers told reporters that there is still a large "scissors" between workers and peasants.　　Many people boil down the price of agricultural products to natural disasters, processing links, monetary policy and artificial speculation, but from the actual situation, these are only "structural, stage, seasonal factors", it is difficult to explain the characteristics of the continued higher prices of agricultural products.　　Chinese people's University of Agriculture and Rural Development, deputy Dean Zheng experts said, from a long-term perspective, the rise in agricultural prices, such as rising production costs, is the trend of agricultural products prices.　　Reason 2 The cost of farming is 60 yuan a day. In recent years, with a large number of middle-aged and young workers into the town, "labor shortage" phenomenon in some areas of agricultural areas, resulting in rapid increase in rural labor prices. In Shandong Province Linshu County Shimen Town Jinling Village, 66-year-old farmer Li Jingmie said, an acre of wheat from sowing, management, harvesting, warehousing to sales, to use about 20 of the labor force. Originally, the rural labor out of work less, are their own farming, "myself to fightWorkers, the cost of labor is neglected.　　In recent years, farmers ' income from migrant workers has increased sharply, and the cost of employment has increased rapidly. In Pingxiang, Guangxi province, farmers Su Duanlong planted more than 100 mu of sugarcane, the recent labor shortage of sugarcane cut to make him worried: "Mountain sugarcane harvesting can not be mechanized, relying on human resources, but every day to open 60 yuan can not find local work." "The rapid rise in labor costs helped push up the price of agricultural products.　　Taking the price of sugar as an example, the price department of Guangxi recently issued a notice, the ordinary sugar cane purchase down payment from 260 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton. Guangxi Sugar Association director of the Agricultural light analysis, the sugar price of the sharp rise and drought caused by sugarcane production, hot money speculation are related. "But the large reduction of rural labor force and the rising cost are the important reasons for the continued higher sugar prices in recent years."　　Wangjun, deputy director of the Price division of the Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that this year's rural labor costs have risen, such as Xinjiang's cotton picking is now in kilograms, picking a kilogram of lint requires 3 yuan.　　After the international financial crisis, because of some places "labor shortage", the wages of migrant workers generally rose one or two times times, "This will push up the comparative cost of food production." Reason 3 The rural land price covers the income difference 30多万倍 along with the city land price rises rapidly, has pulled the suburb land price, and further transmits to the agricultural land price.　　In addition, some agricultural leading processing enterprises and large growers, large-scale leasing operations, but also to a certain extent to improve the rural land price, thereby driving up the production costs of agricultural products, pushing up the price of agricultural products. "The price of farmland is so high now that it used to be unthinkable. "In Henan Yucheng County, farmers Wang JIAFAO this fall rented 6 mu responsibility, 1000 yuan per mu each year, a rent of 5 years, the other side of the lease for planting medicinal herbs."　　He said that in recent years the central government has stressed the development of modern agriculture, the local leasing of land large-scale cultivation of peony, watermelon, tomatoes and other efficient crops more and more people, raising the rent. Sugarcane growers Su Duanlong also feel the pressure of rising land prices.　　Two years ago, he rented an acre of dry land planting sugarcane only 200 yuan, slope only spend 30 yuan, this year rent land price rose one times. With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the potential value of farmland is becoming more and more obvious. "The income gap between farming and other sectors has reached alarming proportions in the same unit of land," Zheng said. "In the vicinity of Beijing's four-ring, with an acre of land to build commercial housing and wheat, the benefits of 30多万倍."　　"Analysis of agricultural production into the" high cost "Wangjun frankly, some trends in price increases are long-term, for example, because of land, labor costs increase, agricultural prices will be a long-term upward trend. "The new round of agricultural price rise, to some extent, reflects the rational return of agricultural product value."　　QINQINGWU, director of the Institute of Rural Economics at Shandong Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, said that the cost of grain production in China has long been high, but food prices have remained at a low level for a long time. "The rise in food prices has become the first driver of prices, and there are statistical factors." The expert confessed, in theIn the former CPI statistical structure, the proportion of food price accounted for about One-third, "such a large proportion still with the characteristics of a shortage of economic period, and food accounted for the proportion of residents spending has significantly decreased the development of reality does not fit." Overall, food price increases are conducive to raising farmers ' income and protecting the enthusiasm of agricultural production, but they also affect the living standards of urban and rural hardship groups. "Qinqingwu and other experts believe that the government should improve the price control policy, to clarify the hype and trend of rising and other situations, classification and regulation."　　On the other hand, we should take institutional measures to improve the structure of price statistics, meanwhile, we should improve the policy of food price increase and poor households subsidy to ensure the living standard of urban and rural residents.　　The reporter deeply in Henan, surveys of agricultural products from Shandong and Guangxi have found that with the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the three "basic costs" of agricultural products-the rigid rise in production, labor and land prices-are becoming the norm, and long-term underestimated agricultural products are returning to value through price hikes and entering a trend-rising channel.　　Relevant people reminded that the production of agricultural products into the "high cost" stage, food prices are susceptible to occasion speculation and other factors, which is a new issue for price control, it is worth paying close attention to. This edition is according to Xinhua