First half: Three key words outline a A-share of cattle in the second half: the five major plate will be the first choice for the Nuggets

Outlook: The most promising institutions of the five industries-our correspondent Zhangxiaofeng Shen Ming yesterday is the last trading day of June, although the 3,000 points around the gate and not attack, leaving suspense, but the rare two-month K-line six Lian Yang form, still locked a A-share market in the first half of the perfect outcome.　　According to statistics, the first half of the Shanghai Composite Index rose 62.53%, deep card exponentially rose by as much as 78.35%, some shares of the increase is staggering, the stock market value of the two cities weighed 20 trillion yuan.　　Review of the first half of the market, policy incentives, liquidity and economic recovery expectations of the three key keywords, to help push the stock market all the way to a crucial factor. Keyword One: Policy encourages the second half of 2008 after the global financial tsunami, China's economic growth significantly slowed down, the economic downward pressure increased.　　The central government promptly launched a series of policy measures to expand domestic demand and promote economic growth, and made it clear in the Central Economic Working Conference that it would be the first task of economic work in the 2009 to maintain steady and rapid economic development. November 9, 2008, the State Council executive meeting announced the expansion of domestic demand, accelerate infrastructure investment and other 10 measures, is expected to invest 4 trillion yuan before the end of 2010.　　The top ten measures include: increasing investment in public housing, rural infrastructure, transport, environmental sanitation and environmental protection, improving medical education, increasing subsidies for agriculture and low-income earners, and so on. December 10, 2008, the Central Economic Work Conference stressed the need to maintain stable and relatively rapid economic development as the first task of the 2009, and for the first time to expand domestic demand as a fundamental way to protect growth.　　The meeting put forward the 2009 Economy 5 key tasks, including the implementation of active fiscal policy and moderately easy monetary policy, promote agricultural development, promote economic restructuring, deepen reform, and maintain social stability. January 12, 2009, the central government to develop a "package" revitalization of the economic plan, including the top ten key industries revitalization plan, involving steel, automobiles, shipbuilding, petrochemical, light industry, textiles, non-ferrous metals, equipment manufacturing, telecommunications and other industries (the real estate industry has been included, but not identified, and finally confirmed as logistics)　　And the National science and Technology long-term planning, with the current economic development closely linked to the six major special accelerated, as a science and technology support, ready to invest 600 billion yuan. Subsequently, China's government has passed on the automobile, steel, textile, equipment manufacturing, shipbuilding, electronic information, light industry, petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, logistics and other ten industrial revitalization planning. At the same time, affected by the continuing decline in exports, the Ministry of Finance three times during the year to adjust the export rebate rate, including bags, shoes and hats, umbrellas, hair products, toys, furniture and other goods export tax rebate rate increased to 15%.　　Television transmission equipment, sewing machines and other goods export tax rebate rate increased to 17% of the full. Recently, the relevant ministries also launched the Jiangsu Coastal area, Guanzhong Tianshui Economic Zone, Tianjin Binhai New area, Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, the Western Strait Economic Zone, the Zhuhai Special Economic zone, such as regional industrial upgrading investment incentive plan. In the top ten productionAfter the launch of the industry revitalization plan, management continued to launch a large number of regional revitalization plans, from different aspects of the continuous revitalization of economic development, refinement of the revitalization of the content, will inevitably play a new role in the future economy. It is in a series of policies to stimulate the economy under the influence of the great encouragement of market investment confidence. The big strength, the high frequency policy promulgation, has created the plate to emerge in endlessly, the hot spot which and so on.　　The major plates of the relay led to the stock index of the continuous upward supply a steady stream of energy. Key word two: liquidity as of yesterday close, the current round starting from 1664, the rise has exceeded the level of 70%, and there is no big adjustment, its strong momentum can be seen.　　In this regard, the mainstream analysis of the view that abundant liquidity has become the main driving force for the current round of the market.　　Since the four quarter of last year, the currency gap from negative to positive, liquidity appears to accelerate the release of the situation. The central bank's financial data show that January China's new RMB loans as high as 1.62 trillion yuan, more than 814.1 billion yuan. In January 2008 this year, after the new loan set a volume of 803.6 billion yuan, the highest record of new loans in one month was refreshed in January. February RMB new loan more than trillion, reached 1.07 trillion yuan, more than 827.3 billion yuan.　　According to past practice, the first two months of the year have completed 5 trillion of the loan target of more than half.　　On this basis, the March RMB loan added 1.89 trillion yuan, and presented the RMB new loans and broad money supply (M2) growth rate has created the highest level of the situation. April new credit data from the central bank showed that when the renminbi loans increased by 591.8 billion yuan in the month, the year-on-year increase of 122.9 billion yuan, a slower than the previous month's record growth, basically in line with previous market expectations of 600 billion yuan.　　The central bank also announced that by the end of April, the broad money supply (M2) balance was 54.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.95% per cent, accelerated for the fifth consecutive month. In May this year, renminbi loans increased by 664.5 billion yuan.　　So far, the first 5 months of new renminbi loans have reached 5.83 trillion yuan, so the adequacy of liquidity, unprecedented history.　　In addition to the macro-level liquidity, the market direct funds Fountainhead constantly. Wind data show that as of June 29, in the first half of 2009, a total of 53 (bond type, money market fund A, B, c) Set up a fund, an average of 9 funds per month, the amount of fund-raising over 134.198 billion yuan. If the stock funds are maintained 80% of the position, mixed funds are maintained 60% of the position calculation, the first half of the new fund for a share market to bring the largest 60 billion yuan of incremental funds; and life safety and other insurance capital "running admission", the Chinese longevity two days increased by 700 million, Huaxia market also in June added 15%,　　Institutional funds into the market to inject a lot of fresh blood, liquidity is to support the stock index shocks on the upside of the important impetus. Keyword Three: Recovery expectations if there's plenty of flowDynamic is the main driving force of the super market, then the formation of this kind of impetus mainly comes from the expectation of China's macroeconomic recovery. Residents ' consumption has risen steadily. As an important pillar of domestic demand, China's consumption in May, the nominal growth rate of 15.2%, compared with the April 14.8% and improved. After taking into account the decline in prices, May consumption real growth rate of 17.3%, also more than April 17%.　　Starting from the two quarter of this year, both nominal consumption and real consumption have returned to a steady upward trend. Residents to help push the housing market warmer. In May this year, residents added medium-and long-term loans of 100.8 billion, stable in March to 100 billion or so historical highs. Year-on-year increase of 60 billion, the same as the March year-on-year increase significantly. Residents ' medium and long term loans mainly affect the real estate market.　　Since 2009, the housing boom has bottomed out in the 1 quarter and rebounded markedly in the 2 quarter, thanks to a surge in residential mortgages. June 23, the National Bureau of Statistics website published a signed for the General secretary Guo's article, "A preliminary analysis of the current several macroeconomic issues," expressed the statistical Office's view: Two quarters of GDP expected to be close to 8%, the Chinese economy shows a more obvious rebound trend. Whether from the GDP, industrial production growth, or from the steel production, power generation and other physical indicators, the current China's economy has bottomed out, the most difficult time has passed, the next stage of the economy is expected to stabilize the good. According to the NBS, the fourth quarter of last year was the bottom of China's economy, which coincided with the 1664.93-point stock market at the time.　　Thus, the trend of macro-economy affects the nerves of the market, and the recovery of economic bottom has obvious support to the securities market. While currencies may not be the cause of economic growth, some analysts point out, currencies are often a precursor to economic volatility. If the currency-credit growth rebound is sustained, the future market may be driven by liquidity to fundamental support.　　With the gradual implementation of the Government's active fiscal policy and stimulating domestic demand and other regulatory results, the second half of the enterprise profitability will maintain a benign improvement situation; In the still abundant liquidity support, a a-share market reversal of the possibility is very small, the second half of the market is still worth looking forward to.　　Re-pricing of banks ' excess income 10: securities, Great Wall securities, capital securities, Ping An securities, Citic Securities, Guotai, Everbright Securities, Wanguo, Changjiang Securities, Donghai Securities and other good reasons: mainly based on the consideration of heavy pricing, net interest rate will be at the end of the second half. A sharp fall in net interest rates has made net interest income difficult to achieve positive growth, while net interest income accounted for more than 87% per cent of operating income in nearly three years. In the first quarter of 2009, the overall net interest income of the banking sector fell 11.18% year-on-year, down 7.42%.　　Affected by this, operating income year-on-year and the chain fell 3.68% and 5.12% respectively. There are important uncertainties in the change of loan quality. The increase in non-performing loans to the profit hasSignificant impact, if the bank wishes to maintain good provision coverage, the increase in non-performing loans would require an increase in the provision of provisions, or increase the cost of credit, thereby reducing profits. The statistical analysis shows that the bank shares can obtain the excess income in general.　　Among them, the continuous improvement of interest rate is one of the important factors that affect the excess income of bank shares, otherwise it is difficult to have stable and sustained excess income. Even in the continuous stable rising interval of spreads, the excess earnings of bank shares are still volatile, the main reason of fluctuation is the change of investment style.　　Bullish on a stock mainly include: ICBC, Pudong Development Bank, CCB, Bank of Communications, China Merchants Bank, Citic Bank, Societe Generale Bank, Shenzhen, Beijing Bank, Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank and so on. Power demand warmer hydropower accounted for 8 good institutions: State Securities, Wanguo, Galaxy Securities, Oriental Securities, Xinda Securities, GF Securities, investment securities, the Yangtze River securities, such as bullish reasons: hair, electricity has warmed up signs. 1-May output year-on-year growth of 11.8%,-5.9%,-1.32%,-3.5% and -2.67%,5 month year-on-year decline narrowed. Heavy industry warming has driven demand for electricity.　　From the monthly cumulative growth rate, the first 5 months of heavy industry consumption year-on-year decline in the previous 4 months of 8.62% narrowing to 7.79%. Installed growth slowed, thermal power utilization of the hours still greatly reduced.　　Installed growth slowed but in the background of negative demand in 1-May thermal power generation was down 14% per cent year-on-year, even if the second half of electricity recovery to positive growth, the 2009 annual Thermal power utilization hours will still fall below 4,700 hours, set a 1999-year low. Market coal stabilization, contract coal negotiation power lost. Market coal, Qinhuangdao stocks in mid-May began a sharp rise in the second half of the month, nearly 31%, the early June back to 5 million tons of normal levels, direct power plant inventory days rose to 19 days. Qinhuangdao Power Coal Warehouse price recently declined slightly. But the coal price of Hang Hau is strong, the same time foreign power coal price rebound sharply, expect three quarter coal price stabilize.　　In terms of contract coal, the electricity companies ' expectations of falling coal prices have been dashed, and the electricity companies are likely to seek further increases in electricity prices after being forced to accept the reality, but for a long time. The overall thermal power is still lack of trend opportunities, hydropower companies have a comparative advantage.　　Thermal power is still advised to pay attention to the recovery of local demand, the eastern coastal region in the ignition price difference occupy a certain advantage, once the demand recovery performance can be greatly improved. 　　The suggestion concerns the company: the Power of power (waterfall ditch power plant after the increase in water and electricity accounted for, and recently the possibility of asset injection), the Yangtze River (stock prices are low). Pharmaceutical investment to increase the growth of 8 optimistic institutions: Huatai Securities, Guotai, Wanguo, Ping An securities, credit securities, Citic Investment, the state Sea securities, northeast securities, such as bullish reasons: 2009 in the first quarter, China's pharmaceutical industry sales revenue and total profit year-on-year respectively 16% and 19%. Excluding inflation in the 2007 and 2008, the real growth in the industry in the first quarter of this year is a real reflection of the pharmaceutical industry'sGrowth level.　　From the analysis of the whole year, with the comprehensive start-up of health reform and 850 billion investment in place, the entire pharmaceutical industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 20% year. The full text of the medical reform was formally released in April, and the biggest bright spot of the formal scheme was the clear "basic medical hygiene for public products" compared with the draft.　　In addition, the formal programme has identified a number of contentious or unclear rules, such as the organization of essential drugs, procurement and supply modalities. Several opinions on supporting and promoting the development of Chinese medicine and some policies for accelerating the development of the biological industry have been promulgated successively. For these two industries are proposed to increase investment, and supporting the relevant preferential policies. It can be said that the future development of these two industries is facing a good policy environment.　　The start of six public health programs means health reform is in order.　　Influenza A (H1N1) although the WHO has gradually elevated its alert level from level four to level six, the actual impact of the disease is still to be seen because of its weak toxicity. Compared to the market premium level has declined, coupled with the good growth of pharmaceutical stocks and follow-up will be introduced with a series of rules, medical unit in the second half of the year is expected to strengthen the market, investment strategy to maintain "performance growth + health benefits" and further refinement as a focus on medical white horse stocks.　　Mainly including first-line shares: Heng Rui Medicine, Yunnan White powder, Hualan biology, double Heron Medicine, Kehua Biology, Kang Yuan Pharmaceutical, medicine, medicine, and so on, the basic Drug catalogue benefit shares: tasly, Kang Yuan Medicine, daughter Medicine, Jinling Pharmaceutical, 39 medicine. Real estate policy loosening purchasing power 7 optimistic institutions: joint securities, securities, Guotai, Everbright Securities, Citic Securities, Wanguo, Yangtze securities, such as bullish reasons: the first 5 months of this year, the market warmer than expected.　　Single-month commercial housing sales area and the amount of innovation high (excluding the December peak), to inventory near the end of the "king" Frequency and investment demand is increasingly strong all show the current property market prosperity.　　Summary of the current property market: 1 To improve the real and huge demand for their own lives; 2 the peak of the baby boom is still supporting the current housing demand, 3 of the urban household balance sheet is more healthy, with strong leverage; 4. The easing of interest rates and two mortgages has had a substantial impact on purchasing power. Although the housing recovery so far this year has been driven by the pent-up demand explosion of 2008.　　But the more worried is that the blowout of the money can not be absorbed by the real economy, in turn to overflow into the property market, and promote housing prices and land prices continue to rise, and the real estate market from the recovery phase to the stage of the bubble too quickly. It is estimated that this round of national commodity residential single monthly average price rose to 5935 yuan/square meters, real house price income than the 2007 when the same price inflection point. If the 5935 yuan/square meters as the theoretical limit of the price rise, in May, based on the average price, house prices have 26% of the rising space. In addition, given the land-fundedSource of scarcity, as well as the improvement of the fund situation of developers, is expected to increase the price will exceed the price. An expansionary monetary policy could prompt a recovery in the housing market, and the same tightening policy could end the housing boom. Focusing on changes in monetary and credit policies, the growth rate of fixed asset investment will be a key factor behind policy changes.　　At the same time, pay attention to the departure of rents and housing prices, the lack of rental level to support the rise in housing prices, but also shows the trend of housing prices to bubble.　　Bullish on three types of companies: 1 active management cycle of the company, including Vanke, Golden Land Group and poly Real Estate, 2 asset-oriented companies, recommended Pan-Sea construction, on the real development, the first shares, Beijing urban construction and Suning Global, 3 Shenzhen projects more companies, recommend China Merchants Real Estate, Oct and deep vibration industry. Steel-driven recovery is in sight 7 good institutions: Wanguo, Citic Investment, Citic Securities, East China Sea Securities, National Yuan Securities, Guotai, investment securities, such as bullish reasons: the country's 4 trillion investment led to the first half of steel production to create a month-high. The second half of the real estate and other industries resumed, exports bottomed rebound, steel demand still has a further rise in space. Overcapacity in iron and steel is a long-term phenomenon, not as scary as the market imagines. The current capacity utilization rate has exceeded 80%, restored to a reasonable range, we expect a sharp rebound in profitability, steel mills since 2009, most of the losses, there is a strong increase in power. A pick-up in demand will spur steel mills to increase their ex-factory prices gradually and boost market confidence. This trend is prompted by the rise in futures and forward market prices. At present, the relative PB valuation of steel plate is still low. May, the domestic 89 large and medium-sized steel mills to achieve a profit of 1.262 billion yuan, is the first time in 7 months to achieve profits, the industry profit inflection point appears. At the same time, domestic steel prices overall rise. Last week, the domestic steel price composite index rose 3.2% per cent from the previous week, up 7.3% per cent last month, down 35.6% per cent from a year earlier, while the domestic long index rose 3.8% last week, up 7.6% from last month, down 32.3% from a year earlier,　　The domestic flat-volume index rose 2% per cent last week, up 6.8% per cent last month, down 40.3% from a year earlier. Follow the valuation reasonable, long material proportion high, the performance elasticity is big, has the resource superiority four standard, mainly is optimistic about Angang shares, the three steel Min Guang, the Ling Steel shares, Xining Special steel, Army Day steel, the hualing steel, the horse steel shares, Shougang shares, the Tang steel shares and so on company.