High-priced IPO or difficult to maintain Watson says three-pronged rule is needed.
Source: Internet
Author: User
KeywordsThree pipes Watson called three high
The IPO's first-price price-to-earnings ratio is high or hard to maintain-our correspondent Cai Zongqi after a bitter burst of mmmm, the recent IPO has seen a sharp drop in earnings. Since February, the average P/E has fallen from 72.9 times to 55.99 times times in January, the lowest level in 6 months. Under the pressure of break and expansion, some market participants expect high price distribution will be unsustainable. After the new shares cooled a round of mmmm, the original high price-earnings ratio plummeted. Wind information shows that, in January, the 35 companies averaged 72.9 times times the initial earnings ratio, and the December 2010 figure was 75.87 times times higher, according to the date of the release announcement. As of 15th, since February, the first issue of the IPO and announced a total of 14 companies, the majority of the Gem and SME board companies. One of the Gem 5, the Board of 8, only Neimong a motherboard company. The average first-rate price-to-earnings ratios of 14 companies plunged to 55.99 times times the lowest level in 6 months from January. For a sharp fall in the issue price/earnings ratio, some brokerage investment bankers said that at the end of 2010, the IPO price-earnings ratio was high, even the shares of both the price/earnings ratio and the IPO price. "The pressure of public opinion is relatively large, and the SFC when the high price shares appear frequently, repeatedly remind underwriters reasonable pricing, investment banking sector dare not wind up against the wind, in early January the industry is expected to issue a price-earnings ratio will decline." The investment bankers said. It is widely accepted that break is the main reason for the fall in the price/earnings ratio. The January market break, rather dramatic is the January 18 debut of the 5 new collective break. Since then, the market has plunged into a new heat, with the rate soaring. Wind information, according to the online distribution date, after January 18, a total of 29 new shares issued a check rate, the average rate of 2.9%, of which the Oriental tower in the rate of 10.11%. Between January 1, 2011 and January 18, the average rate was 1.26%, and in December 2010 the average rate was only 0.8%. Economist Watson said that the new stock break normalization is a sign of the maturity of the securities market. Break is the market mechanism to play a role in performance, playing new can not make money instead of losing, blindly dozen new talent will shrink back, dozen new people less, IPO pricing too higher send out, so the price declined. The deterrent effect of excessive pricing would be even greater if the issue were to be discontinued and failed because of a high price subscription. The high price issue is hard to keep. With the break normalization and market expansion, the first-rate return will be the trend of the future motherboard market, the average starting P/E ratio will be maintained at 20 to 30 times times the level, and the SME board and the gem will maintain the average level of 40 to 50 times times, " Crazy high price distribution is only staged, even if the period is repeated and difficult to continue. "The 2011-year Gem and the SME board will accelerate the expansion, this is the current macro-policy effective implementation of the inevitable result",Dongdengwen, director of the Institute of Finance and Securities, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, said that the rapid expansion of gem and SME has intrinsic requirements and objective conditions. At present, the gem listed companies only more than 100, and only more than 500 board, forming a market pattern of short supply. High popularity, high price, the rate of super low, super funds, speculation rampant has become an indisputable fact that the gem and small and medium-sized plates are in urgent need of large-scale expansion. Accelerate the issue of new shares, expand market supply, on the one hand, to balance supply and demand and curb excessive speculation, on the other hand, can effectively expand the proportion of direct financing of enterprises, more capital, hot money through the IPO into the real economy, the expansion of private enterprise camp. And from the short-term macroeconomic situation analysis, 2011 housing speculation will be significantly restrained, overheated housing investment or will shift to the stock market and other areas, this is a good opportunity for the stock market expansion. At the same time, in the situation of rising interest rates, enterprises in the cost of bank financing will be greatly increased, private enterprises financing difficulties will be more prominent, therefore, this objective environment will also be more qualified to listed enterprises to guide the gem and SME board. In a sense, the 2011-year Gem and the SME board will accelerate the expansion. Watson: three-pronged treatment of three high ban on the sale of Shell fast Accountability Cai Zongqi gem "Three high" problem continues to become a hot spot in the market, the broken mmmm since the beginning of January is a discussion. Market participants believe that to crack the "three-high" problem should be limited to raise, cancel the approval system. Watson, a prominent economist, told the Chinese securities news that the move was not a good solution to the "three-high" problem. He believes that the right remedy and prescribe three drugs: Ban gem three high enterprises in 3-5 years by the Provident Fund to increase equity, ban on gem listed companies to sell shell reorganization, and strengthen the introduction of the delisting system, the issuer and the sponsor of the false statements and excessive packaging open the accountability and claims of fast access. Difficult to register the Chinese securities newspaper: for the three high problems of gem, the market has a lot of suggestions, such as restricting the super raise, cancel the approval system, these measures can solve the three high problems? Watson: Chinese stock market speculation has a new tradition, today's gem appeared three High is not surprising, this is China's distorted stock price structure and speculative speculation of the stock market culture of the inevitable outcome. Now, it is proposed to restore the administrative pricing of 20 times multiples, but this will kill the market price discovery function. Another suggestion is that there is no need to return to the fixed price-earnings ratio of administrative pricing, but only on the basis of market-oriented pricing, to limit the amount of funds raised by listed companies, not to exceed the raise, but this is not workable. Because under the market-oriented pricing conditions, to limit the super raise, only reduce the listed companies share issuance. But in this way, a company's share of the public offering of shares will be very low, it does not reach the Securities Act must have 25% of the basic provisions of public shares. Not to mention the fact that the share price is more easily manipulated and hyped because of its small circulation. Another point of view is that the crux of the three high is the approval system, if the registration system, so that more enterprises more convenient listing, you canTo benefit more enterprises, can solve the three high problems. This advice sounds plausible, and is actually not logical or operational. First of all, the motherboard market has always been the approval system, why the large market stocks are not three high? Second, from the number of issued, the large market shares a year, not a few, pricing is not high, small stock one weeks, the number of more than dozens of times times the supply, indicating that pricing is not simple is the number of decisions. Again, let tens of thousands of enterprises do not need to approve the listing, the Great Leap forward of stock market expansion, will inevitably cause Chinese stock market Nishajuxia, quality drama Drop and evaluation system confusion. Finally, the cancellation of approval, the treasure on the sponsor, let intermediary agencies to check, and business transactions, blending can really let people feel at ease? From the audit system to the registration system is a direction, but obviously not overnight. From the system to the right remedy China Securities newspaper: What do you think is feasible to solve the three high problems? Watson: On the gem of the three high phenomenon, the key is to start from the system, change and reduce market valuation expectations, so that people who blow the bubble bear the corresponding responsibility and profit and loss risk. From the current look at least to take the following several remedies, can be immediately effective measures: first, the ban on gem three high enterprises in 3-5 years by the Provident Fund to increase equity. The marketization of the issue pricing brings the rich Provident Fund to the Gem, which is one of the main themes of the gem speculation and the important foundation of the micro-enterprise overvalued value of the gem. The original transfer of shares is only a book game, and can not really enhance shareholder equity. However, China's share capital expansion has administrative control, listed companies can not own shares or shrink shares, only 1 yuan per share of the nominal value of the transfer shares. Such a long period of time the market has formed the Chinese stock market likes to send shares of light dividends of thinking. Before the reform of the administrative regulation of China's equity expansion, it is necessary to keep up with the times, plug loopholes and prohibit the use of Provident Fund to increase equity in several years. If a listed company wants to expand its share capital, it can only use its own earned money to send red shares. This is the gem three high hype measures. Second, the ban on gem listed companies to sell shell reorganization, and intensified the introduction of the delisting system. Gem should be the place of institutional innovation, and should embody the characteristics of high risk and high income. Therefore, should take the lead in the gem set up a short time, the history of less baggage clearly prohibit the change of main selling shell reorganization, cut off those who do not make the company to sell shell out of the large shareholder's posterior. At the same time should be introduced as soon as possible simple, fast gem delisting mechanism. Life and death, there is a way to form the metabolic balance of metabolism. Third, the issuer and the sponsor's false statement and exaggerated excessive packaging, open the accountability and the claim of fast access. The issuer and the sponsor violate the good faith obligation, in order to pursue the high raise and the high income share, exaggerates excessively wraps, pushes high price, misleading invests the public, this is also the current gem three high important reason. The regulatory authority may open a quick appeal channel, which will be dedicated to complaints from subscribers or investors and from all sectors of the community, while all evidence-basedComplaints were filed on a summary basis and the findings were made public. If the false or exaggerated statement is made, administrative and economic penalties shall be imposed on the issuer and the sponsor involved. The Subscriber or investor may initiate a class action according to the administrative penalty, and the issuer and the sponsoring agency shall be required to compensate for all investment losses. As long as we put the break complaints into the easy to accept the open summary procedure, it will produce a strong deterrent, so as to effectively curb the issuers and sponsors regardless of the means to blindly push up the price of the profit-making behavior. The above three, simple, uncomplicated, and does not involve too much system adjustment and departmental interests coordination, as long as the determination to do, you can reduce the three high speed of the gem quickly play an immediate effect.
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