Housing boom likely to fall next year

Lin Yu 2010, the domestic property market in the regulation and adjustment of the forward, the real estate boom in the peak has also appeared "inflection point."　　Industry insiders pointed out that next year, the central government will continue to maintain policy pressure on the real estate market, domestic commercial housing sales will fall, at the same time, developers to actively shrink the front, delaying the possibility of investment is increasing, the market is expected to "high consolidation" and the industry level "recession" will be the main characteristics of the 2011 real Investment growth will slow down by the early replenishment demand and the impact of real estate development inertia, 2010, domestic real estate development investment high-speed growth.　　However, the industry generally believe that next year's real estate development investment hit the top drop is a big probability event. Statistics show that January-October, the country completed real estate development investment of 3.807 trillion yuan, an increase of 36.5%, of which, the completion of the investment of commercial housing 2.6683 trillion yuan, an increase of 33.8%, the proportion of real estate development investment is 70.1%.　　From the historical data, the October real estate development investment year-on-year growth has stabilized, the chain growth has fallen.　　Northeast Securities that China's real estate development investment growth in the long-term average value has been below 30%, the expected 2011 real estate development investment growth will return to 20%-30% normal range. The growth rate of land purchase cost and the new house opening ratio are the key factors that affect the investment of real estate industry, and also the important support of industry boom.　　The industry predicts that in 2011, developers ' confidence in land acquisitions and new house starts will fall. Zhejiang Merchants Securities pointed out that land acquisition fee is an important factor to promote the growth of real estate development investment. In January-October this year, the National land acquisition cost of 800.6 billion yuan, accounting for real estate development investment 21%, compared to the same period last year, increased by 5%, the resulting increase in land acquisition costs 353.8 billion yuan, the January-October real estate development investment year-on-year growth rate of contribution is 34.7%.　　However, the impact of the decline in sales forecasts, next year, developers are likely to "rationally take the ground" and "control the pace of development", thus, land acquisition fee growth will slow. On the other hand, the new construction area of the national Real estate has been steadily declining for 4 consecutive months. January-October, the National Real estate Development Enterprise Housing construction area of 3.698 billion square meters, an increase of 28.3%, of which the new construction area of 1.318 billion square meters, the year-on-year growth of 61.9%, but the growth rate than January-September down 1.2%.　　From the chain of data, housing new start area has been a small decline for 4 consecutive months.　　Northeast Securities believe that this indicates that developers to make up for the lack of inventory and increase the peak of new projects are already over, is expected to start the new area of housing growth will return to normal in 2011. Financial chain tightening this year, with the April "Country 10" and September "9 29 New Deal" as the symbol, the real estate regulation continued to deepen, differentiated credit policy, repeatedly raised reserve requirements and 1 interest rate hikes, "limit purchase order" and pre-sale funds supervision and other relatedand industry capital chain policy ensued, the real estate industry capital chain also gradually tightened. Data show that in January-October this year, real estate development Enterprises total funding of 5.6923 trillion yuan this year, an increase of 32% per cent year-on-year growth rate of 8.4% year-on-year decline.　　Among them, occupy the housing enterprise funds One-fourth strong pre-sale money because some cities implement the supervision but cannot use freely. As the main source of funding for the housing sector, credit tightening trends have been established. The industry believes that there is still room for further upward deposit reserve ratio, in addition, the total amount of new credit in 2011 will be tightly controlled, the estimated 2011 total credit will fall by about 20%.　　But next year, the protection of housing construction needs more than 500 billion yuan, so that normal ordinary commercial housing construction funds will be further squeezed from the structure. At present, the real estate industry listed companies ' overall solvency is still weakening. This year, the real estate industry listed companies to expand the strength of more than the highest level of history, the industry's overall asset-liability ratio has reached a record high of 70.84%. Whether from the asset-liability ratio or the net debt/parent company's Equity solvency index, the overall solvency of the listed real estate companies has been lower than the 2008 level.