ICBC's technical decline in banking stocks

For the November 15 run Rob the ICBC (601398.　　SH), unfortunately, it hit Black Wednesday. November 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.12%, while ICBC, Nanjing Bank (601009.　　SH) But ushered in the recovery after the fall, although in its suspension, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.96%, but the final slump is far from the market expected.　　The wisdom of the statistics show that 24th, ICBC and Nanjing Bank fell 9.98% and 5.77% respectively close, the main funds outflow of ICBC 290 million yuan, Nanjing Bank for 71 million yuan.　　On the fundamentals of next year's listed banks, Ping An securities believes that the 2011 industry net profit growth decline is a big probability event, but still expected at 25% level. ICBC fell to the early November 24, many investors have speculated that ICBC's margin, down about 5% is a more mainstream view, but ICBC opened it was smashed to 4.42 yuan/shares, really make the market staggering.　　Also encountered by the Nanjing Bank, which also to 10.40 yuan/share of the low price opening. In fact, the last trading day before the suspension, ICBC once Rose 6.65%, and set a 4.92 yuan/share of the stage high.　　Large wisdom statistics show that the day a total of 3.587 billion yuan into the main capital of ICBC, but the outflow amount also reached 3.521 billion yuan. Since November 16, ICBC suspended rights issue, its allotment scheme for each 10 shares with 0.45 shares, allotment price of 2.99 yuan/share, in accordance with the closing prices before the suspension calculation, there are still 39% discount.　　This price has also been warmly sought after, the subscription rate reached 99.72%. CICC believes that after the allotment, ICBC's net assets per share at the end of 2011 is 2.69 yuan, earnings per share of 0.54 yuan.　　In addition to the right after the share price of the corresponding 2011-year P/E ratio and the market net rate is 8.8 times times and 1.78 times times respectively, long-term investment value gradually appeared. Nanjing Bank in accordance with the proportion of 2.5 shares per 10 share placement, the price of 8.37 yuan/shares, the allotment rate of 97.36%.　　According to the BOC International survey, the total capital adequacy ratio and core capital adequacy ratio of Nanjing Bank in late 2010 will be raised to about 14.8% and 13.5% respectively.　　However, the earnings per share of the Bank of Nanjing in 2010 will be diluted by about 18.5%, and in 2010 the return on equity will fall from 17.4% before the allotment to around 14.8% of the allotment.　　In terms of valuation, according to the calculation of Oriental securities, if not take into account the impact of financing, Nanjing Bank 2010, 2011 will be realized respectively EPS0.97 yuan and 1.28 yuan, corresponding to the 2011 dynamic PE 9.8 times times, PB 1.76 times times. The bank stock valuation is affected by the local financing platform loan risk and the real estate loan risk influence, since this year, the bank stock has maintained the low valuation level as well as the good performance growth level, but is repeatedly runs loses the market. Market pointsAnalysts believe that this trend may also be difficult to improve in the next year. In the third quarterly Bulletin of listed banks, the statistics of CITIC Securities show that the quality of assets remains excellent and that the provision is made for sustained growth. The Non-performing loans of listed banks were 374.4 billion, down 23.5 billion in the last quarter and 1.3% for non-performing loans. The provision coverage was increased from 182.5% to 202.5%.　　The cost of credit dropped from 0.51% to 0.46%.　　However, the performance of asset quality next year still depends on the performance of real estate and financing platform. "Although the real estate regulation policy is intensive, but house prices are not very responsive." Even before the boots actually fell, it was hard to tell how much the bank's performance was affected by the real estate controls.　　"Letter Tatsu Securities banking Industry Analysis Shi Zhaoming told reporters.　　Not long ago, the CBRC selected 60 large real estate enterprise groups for sample analysis, found that large housing enterprises in the existence of long credit, the internal structure of complex, high debt rate and loan concentration due to a number of focus on the risk points, and 30% corporate debt ratio of 70%.　　Zhaoming said that for local financing platform, although the survey found that 70% 80% are placed in a prefecture-level platform, and the bank that through the solution package reduction measures, now the risk is controllable, but for the market, the psychological impact may be greater than the actual impact. "A slightly positive factor is the expectation that the deposit spreads may continue to rebound."　　"A bank analyst in Beijing, who declined to be named, told reporters, but also depends on the size of the loan changes." In the current institutional analysis of the report, the forecast next year's new loan limit of 6.5 trillion 7 trillion yuan.　　Qilu Securities believe that if 2011 years do not raise interest rates, spreads will have 7 basis points of the promotion, if there are 1-2 interest rate hikes, spreads will be about 13-19 basis points to upgrade.　　For performance growth, Ping an securities of the 2011 Bank strategy report that the forecast for the bank's profit growth will reach 31% this year, 2011 industry net profit growth is a big probability event, listed banks next year's net profit growth rate will be higher in 25%. The view of Qilu Securities is more pessimistic, the net profit of the listed banks is expected to increase by 18% next year, in which the scale of interest-bearing assets contributes 15.5 and 3.5%, respectively, and the increase in the cost of credit leads to the negative impact of increased spending on net profit growth in 2%.