Imagination is always beautiful, hand-swimming hot behind the brutal shadow

Recently we have reviewed the mobile phone game as a sunrise industry in the storm left some of the real problems, for example: IP Licensing in the research and development and application of the typical chaos, game marketing began to go into the extreme pompous way, the game's special effects are masking the game's design details, the anti-branding behavior of the great line, Paid Creative games encounter the dual willingness of developers and users to squeeze, the game experience from the developer's point of view of the preset layering makes the overall industry set the bias of numerical, game bias system accumulation led to the core experience is weakened, the game of Shanzhai and tort is the default for the stage of things, Game F2P causes the market to be flooded with too many semi-finished products, content supply is not enough to allow users to enter the cycle of repeated experience, and so on.

In fact, if you do more detailed grooming, there are some more macroscopic angle worth exploring, for example: the whole industry market production is not as good as the preset, the game products can not be continuous success is still the magic mantra of every innovative enterprise, start-up companies often fall into a brief rise after the typical fate of rapid downfall, Success caused by the ambition and expansion is lost game positioning, the game's vocal music experience is still not the shortest version of the attention, excessive localization of foreign products overshadowed by the loss of creative style, iterative blurred amplification is becoming a super semi-finished market, industry data release is entertaining.

First, the production of the whole industry market is better than the imagination

A relatively vague and biased calculation formula was mentioned, at this stage in the major application stores are basically not interested (basically no active users of the application, not necessarily a small download, but also may be at a certain stage of the popular but has basically disappeared from the old star works) is about 1.5 million (and still growing state, Some new products are also likely to become zombie applications as quickly as possible. And come up with a capital investment data that could be seriously challenged: 3 (people, considering the imbalance between team members in size applications, and the fact that a large percentage of individual developers contribute a few 10 of inefficient applications, And in the early days of personal and small teams abound) * 12,000 (average monthly salary, no distinction between regions, taking into account the European and American regions in dollars and euros of high pay) *4 (months, a lot of complex applications if you consider some specific work before and after the research and development, Coupled with the current application of the development has begun to tend to high-end needs longer cycle) * 1.5 million (application) = 215.2 billion The renminbi has not played that performance or is extremely inefficient (in fact, these silent inefficiencies are rarely mentioned in the market's galloping, people will only pay attention to Tencent hand-swimming a quarter of 30

Billion revenue or supercell Clashofclans a year of nearly 1 billion dollars of water, and such an incentive to the industry in the dominant characteristics of the media in the constant amplification is doomed to drown everything, any details of the error will be ignored in the past.

Of course, it can correspond to the various major application stores accumulated divided into about 50 billion dollars = 310 billion yuan (given that most of the mainstream store water is divided into 3:7, which means that the actual revenue of these stores generates roughly 445 billion yuan), And these actual hands of water needs to be spread to: game development and operation of the cost + game channel or agent cost + game users to buy ads and other intermediate links of interception costs (note: In fact, this link can squeeze the game application of water more than 30%) + business tax, The part that can eventually be classified as an application to create profits is not that impressive (many application-research companies spend money on risky capital rather than on the spontaneous rolling of the product's profits).

Although the mobile game market is vigorous, but the deduction from venture capital and the capital generated by the merger of listed companies, the overall production of the game industry is not as good as imagined.

Second, game products can not be continuous success is still the curse of every innovative enterprise

There are three very typical successes in the mobile gaming industry: a snowball-like success (such as swiping a list or a boom with resources and advertising, creating a herd effect that drives subsequent natural users). One is to keep a close eye on the global trend and use the regional and cultural differences to make the localization of the rapid cottage into a success, one is no obvious industry experience and a successful entry into the user market.

Apparently, many of the companies that suddenly sprang up including the point of the rise of the page and the point of the hand-swim outbreak, are in a period of Hurricane dash (this typical feature includes a considerable amount of time on the scale of the application download, by the user data heap high enterprises and specific developers of the industry visibility, A considerable amount of revenue in a certain period, the revenue may be the application of the contribution or may be from the capital side of the large injection, very positive capital and media influence, few do not encounter product bottlenecks, most of them in the push of a product to face problems ( Although the company's previous capital accumulation has been fully equipped with the strength of a large cost of research and development, external product incubation, game investment or the use of resource accumulation agent issued, but it is clear that good products can not be asked, have a certain advantage of the first issue can not determine the next to be successful.

The most common is that developers are constantly ruminating on the previous successful products to dig deep, such as the introduction of a sequel (but there is no doubt that this is an inevitable process: a generation of stunning, the second generation of expectations of the bursting of the second generation in place or simple optimization, user rating), or deep excavation of peripheral products (film and television works, derivatives).

This market is constantly in a similar cycle: A handful of leaders with a single paragraph or a closely related series in the short term rapid rise, the limelight, become the media and Capital Circle Darling; and then the market expectations continue to climb, eagerly looking forward to developers to a more perfect product upgrades; then the market was a little disappointed, Developers are in the middle of a controversy, and in the end they don't care, and the new rising takes all the attention.

Third, startups often fall short after a brief rise of the typical fate of the rapid

The recent behaviourinteractive acquisition of ZOMBIEFARMIP's news has once again attracted attention to the "coquettish but short-lived" issue. Once Zombiefarm and Vincemcdonnell led the Playforge is a model for all independent game developers, Zombiefarm for two consecutive years to become an App Store revenue example is the role of this small team to the peak, But soon as Playforge was sabanbrands to acquire and close things down, and a lot of small creative development teams and individuals who had succeeded but soon became silent, they illustrated a trend: In the product-type + Capital-type market-oriented, comprehensive strength is replacing creativity and opportunity, nearly a year apart Monumentvalley and Fivenightsatfreddy ' s series, already very few other products have similar successes again.

Of course, these and former models such as Westwoodstudios (Duneseries Dunes Series and Commandandconquerseries Command and Conquest series), Ensemblestudios ( Ageofempires Empire Times series), Bullfrogproductions (Populous series God also crazy and Dungeonkeeper Series Dungeon Keeper), Blackislestudios (Fallout radiation series, Planescape:torment, Icewinddale and Baldur ' Sgate series of different degrees, their success is not a classic, doomed to be forgotten by the market, If there is no sudden news, few people pay attention to the Playforge or Omgpop.

Over the years, there have been too many cases where mobile gaming companies have grown rapidly and have suddenly faded out (note: Each lead for a few months, up to Yinianbanzai), not only small developers who are still struggling to be eliminated at the edge of research and development may not see the future, Even if strong enough to billions a huge sale of the backbone of its own can be in the next year is also bullish not to have the confidence (several unreliable product attempts enough to let them slowly out of the public eye), mobile game This kind of product-type opportunity situation catalytic every research and development provider has no good sense of security.

Its four, the success caused by the ambition and expansion is lost game positioning

Now some of the game companies have a certain success based on the positioning of the attitude is very strange, a growing number of companies with large user base (especially those who download hundreds of millions of users, active users, tens) are looking for a full entertainment perspective (generally with Disney as a model to look around, To carry out the line, including publishing, film and television, toys and animation, including the entire industrial layout, even into the field of amusement parks, rather than the positioning of their own game to dig to the extreme (such as Blizzard, in the player circle and the developer Circle of God in general).

And the most typical case should be the Finnish super company Rovio: As the pioneer of the touch screen game era, Angrybirds series Hoot, but the mobilegamecompany, which relies entirely on the famous game, Unexpectedly sometimes think oneself should be entertainmentcompany, finally feel should be entertainment&educationcompany, even removed the original let oneself scenery infinite game color.

Of course, this positioning phenomenon and the key to the next piece of work is closely related, in betting on a piece of work to be able to make a popular and excavation of the previous red works surplus value, developers are more willing to choose the link of low risk (although relying on the sideline outside the game to come again the possibility of a

Its five, the vocal music experience of the game is still the shortest version that is not appreciated

At this stage a lot of light games have hundreds of millions of downloads (dau and Mau some also up to tens of millions or billions of levels), at the time of Farmville Peak Stevekirk production of frmvillesong every day more than tens of millions of times, this is the other carrier is difficult to keep up with.

The reality of the developer level is more: either steal the audio elements on the Internet to do the appropriate mix, or to outsource the demand for vocal music as to how these musical elements are made with the overall process of the game is rarely the most concerned about the game.

At the same time, the game as a music carrier, essentially has not received enough attention to musicians, although occasionally there will be some affirmation of the industry's heart, such as composer Austinwintory for Thatgamecompany and Sony Games groceries's soundtrack and Christophertin's opening song for Civilization 4 have been endorsed by the Grammy, but in fact, As the ability to touch the super user base of the game vocal music has not received the real recognition and participation of musicians, the current game vocal music is still an amateur era.

Its six, the excessive localization lets the overseas product casts the shadow to lose the originality style

Domestic and overseas developers have the same voice that China is now the hands of the big market is also a potential to dig big market, all kinds of overtaking North America or a rival Japanese market calls.

The sound quickly translates into a developer's actual action: localization. As we all know, localization is one of the most crucial links for a gaming company to take root in the international market, which is enough to affect whether a foreign company can serve a specific user group locally (the ultimate localization strategy is once an important step for developers to internationalize, given the size and speed of the market in China, Pure Language Options and compilation may not meet the landing strategy. But it's easy to see another situation: excessive localization.

Many overseas developers have a reputation for being in China, typically such as: very focused on one area, digging deeper into layers that no other developer can reach, being very attitude towards the product, always standing on the player's good experience, and being more objective in the billing process and less motivated by the competition and hatred of the players.

And the so-called "excessive localization" the most appropriate reality is that these developers come to China to abandon their own region to adhere to the development principles, fully integrated into the Chinese market development of the normal, or basically completely apply the most mature design mode (some of the more than a few, it is surpasses , causing many localized games to lose their original flavor and offer no new value.

Its seven, iterative blur amplification is becoming a super excuse for the semi-finished market

The concept of F2P and iterations after popular, on the market on the emergence of a variety of semi-finished products (if it is a paid game, this semi-finished products are basically to be scolded by the players, but in the f2p era a lot of the game rough to even semi-finished goods are not counted on the beginning of the billing, some also the United States its name Yue visit the needs of users Some exaggerated to full of bugs and some of the elements can not be played on the public test and inside the name of the online, this is unique in the past (now because of the existence of free experience, users of the poor product tolerance is also very high).

Often iterative is so deliberately misused by developers, in the name of collecting feedback to allow a variety of porous content on the shelves of users, and sometimes the game can be naïve to the problem of the player unable to spit slot.

In the crowded app era, this continuous trial and error with semi-finished products constantly lead users to participate in the bad experience and ultimately optimize to the satisfaction of all parties to the success of the case has been rare, when users have numerous homogeneous options, with a bad experience to the user to try the wrong is a user refused.

Mattmarshall that in the app world, where most apps will reach the top of the download in 3-6 months, it could mean a variety of apps that rely on later optimizations, or die of unprofessional or professional abandonment. And back to the original definition, the so-called rapid iterations more refers to the rapid testing of the user's preferences, and then based on the user's choice to produce the trend of content, this is a reasonable choice of optimization problems rather than semi-finished testing problems.

Its eight, industry-related data releases are entertaining

Now the industry has begun to develop some kind of illusory or even entertaining: reports published by third parties and application platforms (mostly relative to macro-industry developments or application development patterns of specific platform content) are often Da Guo by developers who disclose data internally (such as water, retention, conversion rates) that are often Da Guo , the amount of industry finance that media spreads (there may be false financing, or the financing itself does not exist) is often Da Guo.

The seriousness of the problem has been developed you see but the first time do not believe: again in the weak text.

This situation is far more prevalent than imagined: the industry is flourishing (in fact, even if the game is not the edge of the industry is also coveted this big cake), but do not believe that the case (think most are for marketing and water injection of advertising software, or a lot of joint play).

These are supposed to be the real situation of the industry Development Direction indicators (third party reports, should store reports, game flow, game retention, game pay conversion, corporate finance and mergers and acquisitions, always in the first time to cause the surprise and doubt, instead of confusing the industry's overall judgment, so that the industry's transparency reduction ( is always covered with all kinds of false data), everywhere is specious (can not afford two of exquisite content too much).