International oil demand to start recovery next year

Global oil demand will drop 2.56 million barrels to 83.2 million barrels a day in 2009, while a 3% per cent drop was the highest since 1981, according to the International oil market Monthly Report, released 14th by the IEA.　　The agency also said that while the sharp drop in global oil consumption may be close to bottoming out, oil demand still has to wait until 2010 before it really starts to recover.　　Analysts pointed out that despite the positive signal of international oil prices, the supply and demand situation in the international petroleum market has not been fundamentally improved, supply and demand are still suffering from the negative effects of the continuing impact of the crisis. Demand for oil-consuming countries has fallen this is the 9th consecutive month that the IEA cut international oil demand, following the IEA's forecast for a 2.4 million-barrel decline in oil day demand this year in April. That means the IEA's forecasts have become one of the most pessimistic forecasts of the oil industry for about 25 years.　　On the day before the report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut global oil consumption by 2009 to 84.03 million barrels similar to the IEA's forecast of 83.2 million barrels. However, the IEA said more than 60% per cent of its 160,000 barrels of daily demand, or 100,000 barrels, were due to changes in historical data, making the agency's downgrade a relative margin of 60,000 barrels. However, David Fafei, the author of the International Oil market monthly report, said demand had fallen sharply, although the IEA expects the trend of shrinking demand to gradually slow.　　He also believes that it will take many months for crude oil to recover, and that the process would be slow and likely to be realized by 2010. The shift in demand among the world's largest oil-consuming nations also supports this judgment: the data show that, as the country's economy slows or shrinks, oil demand in 8 of the world's 10 largest oil-consuming countries could "drop significantly".　　Only India and Saudi Arabia are expected to grow in demand, while Chinese consumption will fall or remain flat. In addition, the IEA expects oil consumption demand in developed countries to fall by as much as 5.1% in 2009, with demand in the United States "very weak" and the situation in Europe will only be very limited to the US. At the same time, the IEA said that as China and Russia continued to slump in their oil consumption demand, developing economies would have a decline in demand for the first time since 1994 in 2009.　　The agency expects oil-day demand for this sector to be only 38.1 million barrels a year, down 0.4% from 2008, or 140,000 barrels. OPEC to loosen production commitment compliance The IEA said OPEC, which accounts for more than 1/3 per cent of global oil production, had increased its daily output by 270,000 barrels last month, thanks to the recent strong international oil price and the firm's determination to boost international oil prices by cutting production.　　Thus ending a 7-month continuous decline in the trend of increasing output. That means OPEC has been on its own since last autumnConnaught's compliance with the 4.2 million barrels a day has fallen from 83% in March to 78% per cent, after OPEC members agreed in March to raise their commitment to nearly 900,000 by cutting Susan of 800,000 to 100% barrels a day before the next meeting of 28th this month.　　Buzope, a professor at the China Institute of Economics and Management at the Central University of Finance and Economics and a consultant for the International Petroleum Monthly, said it was important for OPEC to loosen its commitment to reduce production, because the rise in production would likely lead to a sharp increase in oil inventories and, in turn, depress international oil prices in the context　　Since 2009, the international crude oil futures prices in February experienced a 32 of millions of dollars per barrel of multi-year lows, but still showing a gradual rebound in the trend, and in the middle of April, accelerated the pace of increase, and finally on May 12 in the pan to break the 60 dollar per barrel of the key psychological price. The supply and demand sides continue to bear the brunt, Buzope pointed out that the positive signal of oil prices does not mean that the supply and demand of the international oil market has been fundamentally improved, not to mention that less than 60 U.S. dollars per barrel of international oil prices, from the authority of the generally recognized 70 U.S. dollars per barrel of "reasonable price" there is still a small gap. In view of the current situation, the global oil supply and demand are still suffering from the negative effects of the financial crisis brought about by the enormous pressure.　　OPEC also issued a stern warning at its previous meeting that the oil market faces "significant risks" because of "serious imbalances" in the fundamentals.　　Earlier, OPEC in its oil market report said that the global economic trend is not yet clear, especially in the OECD countries and Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region emerging economies of the economic outlook remains a great deal of uncertainty, which will affect the oil price trend for a long time. Buzope pointed out that the current high international crude oil reserves is also the international oil market supply and demand is difficult to rebalance the important factors.　　Data show that the level of crude oil reserves in major energy-consuming countries such as the US has gone well beyond the average of the past 5 years, while the entire OECD oil reserves have been able to meet consumer demand for the next 60 days, which is 7 days more than the 2008 level and the highest level since September 1993. The current oil price is away from the 70 USD/barrel approved by the market. Photo of Xinhua News Agency