Investment and financial management: The weather in the property market

Wen/"Investment and financial" reporter Sun Xiaoyu 2010 is destined to be a complicated year.　　Stock index futures, stock market shocks, gold surging, foreign exchange market undulating ...　　The turn of spring and summer, the property market also mutation. May 6, an explosive news almost occupy the country's major economic media headlines: Evergrande Group announced that about 40 real estate in the country also launched 85 percent promotional activities.　　This is the new round of property market regulation background, the first to lift the banner of large real estate development enterprises. This thought is good news for consumers, who knows the end has become a farce. May 10, Evergrande Real Estate Group Brand Center said it would end 85 percent promotional activities on May 16. Two days later, it is also said to extend the 85 percent promotion to the end of the month.　　Quicker, not only let some buyers are at a loss, even insiders are confused.　　In fact, no matter what the developers resorted to strange strokes, are in order to respond to the real estate New deal.　　Real estate New Deal "combination boxing" has been implemented for one months, the property market abruptly changed. First house prices. Beijing Tongzhou, the new deal after the introduction of the second day will be "makeover" into collar.　　Central Plains Leading Index system data show that in April, Beijing and Shenzhen and other five major cities of second-hand housing turnover fell to different degrees, to Beijing and Shenzhen, the largest decline.　　At the same time, developers are increasingly cautious, Beijing has even appeared due to developers of the price lower than the government's lowest price caused by the phenomenon of streaming.　　Originally almost crazy buyers, now also calm down, wait and see the price trend.　　Property market regulation, how many policies can be introduced?　　Can house prices really fall under the new deal?　　Real estate market day, how will it change?　　Changes in policy-changing policies have been seen in the early year.　　March 5, Premier Wen Jiabao, in the ninth session of the National People's Congress for the government's work report, said, to promote the smooth and healthy development of the real estate market, resolutely curb the excessive rise in prices in some cities, to meet the people's basic housing needs. Subsequently held the two sessions, high prices became "CHOUFSO".　　Most of the participants were high prices, calling for curbing the rise in house prices too fast.　　However, the market has not budged. The two sessions have just ended, Beijing is also the new "King", the average price of commercial housing in Beijing in the first quarter than the same period last year rose about 11.2%. Golden Rock, chief economist of the National Gold Securities, joked: "Too outrageous, too do not give the government face to the face of Premier Wen!"　　So, the real estate market macro-control Policy "combination boxing" high-frequency. April 14, the State Council executive meeting requested that the loan to buy a second housing family, the loan must not be less than 50%, the loan rate must not be less than the benchmark rate of 1.1 times times; 17th, the State Council issued a new "country 10", the request for exorbitant prices area, can suspend the issuance of three suites and　　To suspend the purchase of housing loans for non-local residents who cannot provide proof of local tax or social insurance contributions for more than 1 years. Major ministries and regulators are also fastMove。 April 11, the CBRC requested that banks not to speculate on investment in housing loans; April 13, the Department of Housing construction to accelerate the construction of housing, curb the rapid rise in housing prices; April 19, the Department of Housing construction requirements for commodity houses strictly implement real-estate system; April 21, the CBRC officials stressed that the second suite in housing,　　No longer take credit as the subject.　　Everywhere have also been boxing, new rules. April 30, Beijing first launched the "Beijing version" property market New Deal, stipulates that the same home buyers can only buy a new set of commercial housing; Hainan, followed by the launch of the Hainan version of the property market "11" to ensure that 10% of the land transfer gold to the housing construction project tilt; Hangzhou has also announced the non-first purchase of the standard,　　Make sure that the tax records are the subject; Shanghai will introduce rules, the annual levy of 8 of the real estate tax, Qingdao's "New 14", the demand for foreigners to buy a home loan must first open proof, housing prices must be open, etc., Shenzhen also issued a new deal, the non-resident residents to suspend the purchase of housing loans ... After several years of "air-conditioning" and "more and more", many people have lost confidence in the macro-control of real estate, but also think "real estate control policy credibility has disappeared."　　But, this time broke the previous routine regulation New deal, quickly bring a turning point to the Chinese property market change, not only suddenly make the property market from "seller's Market" into "buyer's markets", and even some developers and speculators have to admit that the property market, some of China's large and medium-sized housing prices may be Shansheng.　　It seems that the former seemingly docile "tiger", really to the.　　The market is Shanyu. As a new deal, the volume of most key cities continued to decline. From April 18 to 30th, 7 of the 13 cities traded less than the new deal, with Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Suzhou falling by more than 40% per cent.　　From May 1 to 14th, the impact of the new deal expanded further, the average daily turnover of 13 cities was lower than the second half of April, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other 10 cities fell more than 30%. Compared with 2007-2009 average, from May 1 to 14th, 11 comparable cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other 7 cities daily turnover level lower than the 2008 average and the decline of more than 30%, only Tianjin, Wuhan, Chongqing, Changsha 4 cities above 2008,　　of which Changsha was more than 2009. In addition, the data show that in the second week of May, Shanghai commercial housing price of 22873 yuan/square meters, the chain fell 9%, ending the previous 3 consecutive weeks above 25,000 yuan situation. In Beijing, 341 ordinary commercial residential projects, prices flat and discounted discount items accounted for 41%.　　To Tongzhou, for example, "New Country 10" promulgated before, Tongzhou property led the entire Beijing property market, and after one months, Tongzhou has 6 real estate discounts, discount items accounted for up to 21%. New disk So, second-hand housing is deteriorating, whether the market turnover or price have different degreesDecline. The figures show that the turnover of second-hand housing in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Tianjin has fallen by as much as 44% per 92% in early April respectively.　　In terms of prices, house prices have fallen less sharply, with prices in the five major cities falling by 6%, including Beijing down 6.2%, Shanghai down 5.7%, Shenzhen down 6.7%, Guangzhou down 5.3% and Tianjin down 6.4%. Sensitive stock market, real estate stocks Yixieqianli.　　Since early April, the property index has plunged to a maximum of 30%, with many property shares nearly halved.　　The turn of spring and summer, the real estate market floating up the sky snowflakes.　　Developers change stability policy a face, developers also become well-behaved up. May 10, in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively, held a new property market after the first land auction.　　Among them, Beijing Shunyi District of the plot, because the developer's price is lower than the government's lowest price led to streaming, and Shanghai's former "king" Frequency of the new Jiangwan city plots, only to the auction floor bargain.　　May 12, the new deal in Beijing's property market since the implementation of the second land transaction process, developers on the plot is far less than the previous enthusiasm, the general price is cautious, some developers because the price is lower than the prices directly eliminated.　　Industry insiders said that the regulatory policy of the "combination of boxing", developers have been afraid to take the land. At the same time, developers are also smart to control the rise in house prices, some real estate prices have been loosened.　　Reporter investigation found that some real estate in Beijing, especially in the suburbs and counties of the project has appeared price loosening signs, using small steps to fine-tune prices to win customers. Of course, most developers in the "troubled Times" in the choice of "status quo", and strive to win stability. Take the land of caution naturally needless to say, alone "dead" the determination of the price does not fall, can be seen. And the current developers hold more than 250 billion yuan in cash, is not bad money.　　A developer in Dongguan, the director of operations, even openly told the media that it would take at least six months or more for the developer to run out of funds. Some experts believe that the owner of the primary house because the fund is stable, will not take the initiative to reduce prices, just wait and see wind direction. The situation that "the quantity is not reduced" in the primary room means that the state of market wait-and-see and stalemate basically shape. At the same time, although the new deal since the introduction of the price of selling around the news, but most of the housing companies still choose to stay put.　　Some developers frankly, because of the subsequent regulatory policy is not clear, also can not predict the market reaction, so most of the housing companies can only take a stand-by strategy.　　Stir-fry Housing Group and developers of the gas, the new deal, speculation after the housing regiment evacuated a first-tier city, and then to other markets. Wenzhou Fried House group first reaction, but they did not sell large areas of property, but began to find the next direction for funds. Wenzhou Tian Hao Real Estate Co., Ltd. general manager Wang Jiannan said that if the purchase of all the money to use their own, it depends on whether there is a potential for appreciation.　　The current property market combination boxing, Wenzhou fried Housing group chose to temporarily abandon real estate, to other investment goods. Relevant dataShows that Wenzhou has now invested in the field of equity investment by about 20 billion yuan in various forms. There are also Wenzhou investors to buy the kind of gold at millions of yuan, or even tens of millions of dollars. It is understood that the recent Chinese gold Wenzhou flagship store gold bars sales growth, investors also from the past by the "grams" to buy gold, upgraded to the "catty" buy.　　In addition, many investors have looked to Zhuhai, Xiamen, Kunming and other second-tier cities in real estate. Shanghai, Guangzhou and other land investors, but also with the Wenzhou House of the same group of the transition. The difference is that the investors chose to sell their listings. In Shanghai, with the tightening of property-control policies, some local investors have ended their wait-and-see mentality, hoping to sell cash as soon as possible and invest money in other investment channels. In Beijing, a number of real estate intermediary stores before, the reporter noted that a lot of hanging out of the listings marked "Straight down XX million" word, its battle is comparable to the supermarket promotional activities.　　A real estate agency says some investors are selling down their listings for fear of future policy.　　But instead of abandoning real estate, the investors moved to commercial property. "Everything is going up now, prices are rising faster than bank interest, I'm worried about the shrinkage of deposits, the risk of being too big in the stock market, or the most reliable investment in property." Mr. Zhang, with 200,000 yuan on hand, has been watching the real estate market. According to his introduction, previously wanted to invest in housing, mainly in the home's leverage effect, 20%-30% of the down payment can be entered, and a large increase in the short term. "However, after the housing market New deal, not only down payment and loan interest rates have increased, and appreciation of the space has become smaller." "Investors like Mr. Zhang believe that the implementation of the New deal has raised the threshold for investment in housing, now commercial real estate is also 50% down payment, loan interest rate to maintain the past indicators, will not increase the cost of his investment, rental rate of return than the housing higher, and not hit by policy, more development potential.　　The analysis of the current New deal made him more determined and focused on commercial property. Buy a house person "heart" this April real estate New Deal before the introduction of the property cover plate reluctant, second-hand housing sellers sit down the phenomenon of rising prices. Because the legendary policy regulation did not come, and buyers in the anxiety lest the price of a new round of rising.　　But from now on, it seems that buyers should take it easy. The face of a dense housing new deal, as well as developers and the performance of the property owners, to buy a house of the hearts of the very happy.　　However, most of the reporters interviewed for the new deal in January, the effect of feeling the strength is not enough. New Deal at the beginning, "wait to see" mentality, so many buyers gave up the purchase plan. Data show that, as the Shanghai new House transaction continued to slump, Shanghai on the newly "check-out" phenomenon also gradually began to increase--in early April, the withdrawal of more than 30 units in the sale of real estate projects only two, and in late April, the number of the real estate has risen to 6. In Chengdu, the spring Fair, the face of many concessions, on-site consultation and wait for the majority of people, the scene signed a few people.　　"Now the government regulation is not over, who will come to rob the house?" What's the use of concessions? Wait and see. "The house-buyers Miss Li said to reporters, the way out of the current home buyers mentality." Ms. Li, who had been renting a house, was ready to buy a new house earlier this year, and had already seen a large number of Beijing's newly set, which had recently been ready to buy a flat in Tongzhou, but later after the new deal came to a stop. "I found that the original very popular house, we are watching, and maybe two days after the price reduction." "According to the Southwest Securities calculation, and the implementation of the most preferential lending policy in the end of 2008, compared to the implementation of the" 10 "New Deal, the second house purchase down payment costs rose 66%, the cost of loan interest rate increased 57%.　　Southwest Securities said the new deal will improve the sex housing, investment, speculative buying a strong inhibition, will make the market again into a wait-and-see period, turnover will be reduced.　　Is the wolf really here?　　May 18, deputy director of State-funded committee Li Wei in the recent Central Enterprise Information Work Video conference pointed out that, macro-economic policies may be fine-tuned at different stages, especially monetary and real estate policies, which will have an impact on the production and operation of some industries and enterprises, making the "policy or variation" speculation sound magnified again.　　Is the policy again soft? It is understood that some ministries, including the Ministry of Housing construction, are deploying research to assess the effectiveness of property policies. Therefore, the possibility of policy changes still exists.　　Industry insiders also said that the central level is unlikely to add tougher measures as markets are cooling better.　　In this way, it seems that the "Wolf" story again staged. This round of regulation is known as "the most severe in history", in addition to the precision of the attack on the house, but also because the central government for the first time explicitly put forward in the stability of house prices and housing security work to the public officials "to establish assessment accountability mechanism." Perhaps, this is cut off the interests of local government and developers a precise knife.　　Therefore, this round of real estate New deal by many people placed great expectations. So, is this series of New deal really useless? Under pressure, will house prices fall?　　On this issue, the reporter wired a number of experts and scholars, as well as the industry, has been almost the same answer-this round of regulation is very strong, the new deal after house prices will fall. Cai Ruhai, an associate professor of finance at the Central University of Finance and Economics, told reporters that the policy will be very influential and push the market into a period of adjustment. This round of real estate control New Deal, on the one hand, by increasing the down payment of two suites, restricting the purchase of more than one suite of financial and administrative means, by blocking speculative demand, thereby cooling the overheated market in the short term, curbing the trend of soaring prices, on the other hand, by increasing land supply, standardize the market order and other means to increase market　　In particular, to increase the provision of affordable housing and low-cost, small and medium-scale ordinary commercial housing, so as to release positive signals to the people, that is, a period of time after the market will be significantly increased supply, not because of panic and anxious to buy a house. "As long as the real estate market to clean up the hype and investment part of the, there will be a fundamental change in housing demand. This policy is very powerful, and if implemented seriously, the market will surely return to rationality. "Yixianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview that" speculating in buying a house last year would be all tied up without a rush to sell. " ”