It remains to be seen whether the signs of economic recovery are solid

Macro economy:signs of warming-up, But/Shini Zhao Juniello The latest data show that although year-on-year GDP growth fell to 6.1% per cent in the first quarter of this year, China's economic performance has seen a number of positive changes, mainly in the following aspects: I. Economic acceleration The decline of the initial containment, the economic performance of a number of signs of recovery (i) year-on-year GDP growth rate, although continued to decline, but the decline slowed down 2009 years ago, gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.1%, Year-on-year,　　The chain fell 4.5 and 0.7% respectively, and fell to the lowest in nearly 10 years, but the year-on-year decline in GDP growth shrank by 1.5% from the fourth quarter of 2008. (b) Analysis of the contribution of "troika" to economic growth in the first quarter, investment, consumption and net exports contributed 2.0, 4.3 and-0.2% to the year-on-year growth of gdp6.1% (see table). Compared with previous years data, consumption contribution to overcome the impact of economic crisis, maintain a very good stability, in 6.1% of GDP growth rate of 70%, it is commendable; In the context of rapid growth in fixed asset investment and a stronger pull on GDP, The decrease in inventory investment makes the contribution of investment to GDP drop more than the previous two years, indicating the drag effect of the inventory process on economic growth; the overall deterioration of the foreign trade situation in the first quarter makes the contribution of net exports to GDP from being negative.　　Generally speaking, the external demand falls and the enterprise stock adjustment behavior is the leading factor of GDP growth decline. Second, the credit funds accelerated to the real economy release, several major market transactions active (i) Credit volume growth, two levels of liquidity abundant 1. Credit has risen sharply. In the first quarter of 2009, new loans hit a record high of 4.58 trillion trillion yuan, completing 91.6% of this year's credit target, with the highest record in January and March.　　At the end of March, RMB loans for financial institutions grew by as much as 29.78%, the highest record since August 1997. 2. With the main pull of credit expansion, there is ample liquidity at the social level.　　At the end of March 2009, the Broad Money supply (M2) grew 25.51% per cent year-on-year, up 5.11% from the end of last month, the highest since November 1996. 3. The liquidity of the banking system remains abundant. Interest rates on major money markets continued to decline. At the end of March 2009, the weighted average interest rate of interbank lending and the weighted average of bond repo were reduced to 0.84%, the lowest value since April 2004. Shibor overnight interest rates fell to 0.8%, the lowest since March 2007.　　The abundant supply of capital provides strong financial support for economic growth, providing important guarantees for getting out of this round of economic hardship.　　(ii) Increased flow of funds to the physical economy1.M1 rapid growth, "scissors" continue to narrow. At the end of March, the M1 growth rate of 17.04%, compared to a significant increase of 6.17% last month, affected by this, "scissors" last month continued to narrow to 8.47%. Since the difference between M1 and M2 is mainly resident savings deposits and business time deposits, while the growth rate of residents ' deposits remained at 29.65% at the end of March, it can be inferred that the March trend of corporate deposit periodicity has weakened.　　The rapid growth of M1 and the weakening of the deposit periodicity show that the activity of production and investment activities of microeconomic main body is increased obviously. 2. Corporate deposits have grown rapidly, and corporate capital turnover and capacity to pay have improved. In the first quarter of 2009, enterprise deposits increased by 2.8 trillion yuan, more than 2.15 trillion yuan.　　It is worth noting that the balance of business demand deposits in February after the increase of 604.4 billion yuan, March again greatly increased nearly trillion, the above data reflects the growing cash flow of enterprises, corporate capital turnover and capacity to pay improved.　　3. The credit structure has been optimized: the growth of bill financing has slowed and household loan demand has rebounded. Bill financing growth slows. March new paper financing of 369.1 billion yuan, compared to December are significantly reduced, bill financing in the proportion of new loans from December 38.5% and 45.5% fell to 20%, which is the lowest proportion since October 2008,　　The main reason for the slowdown of bill financing: first, the increase of the discount rate of bill reduces the substitution of the bill to the short-term loan, and also reduces the arbitrage impulse; second, the expected improvement of the economic outlook has strengthened the willingness of banks to provide loans, and the third is the timely risk warning of the bill business. Household loan demand picks up. By the real estate market and the excitement of the car market, March residents loans added 257 billion yuan, more than 159.1 billion yuan, of which the medium and long term consumer loans in March added 97.2 billion yuan, more than 67.3 billion yuan, and December residents loans only slightly increased by 23.8 billion yuan, the new loans accounted for more than 13.6 households loans　　Increased by 6.2 and 9.6% respectively in December. (iii) The above macroeconomic series of signs of warming led to social confidence is recovering the 1.PMI index 4 consecutive months of recovery, March rose to 50% of the expansion, contraction line. Since December 2008, the domestic manufacturing Purchasing managers Index (PMI) has rebounded for 4 consecutive months and the PMI index rebounded to 52.4% in March, the first pick-up to more than 50% in the last six months.　　As compared with last month, key indicators such as production indices, New order indices, purchasing indices and export orders continued to climb, with output, purchases and New order indices rising to more than 50% per cent. 2. The business sentiment index shrank and the entrepreneurial confidence index rebounded. In the first quarter, the national Business Sentiment index was 105.6, down 1.4 points from the last quarter, and the quarterly decline was significantly narrower than the 4 quarter of 2008. Entrepreneur Confidence Index is 101.1, 6.5 points higher than the previous quarter.　　In addition, we also clearly feel in the process of research and entrepreneurship recovery, survey enterprises on the next stage of industrial production, sales are more optimistic expectations. To sum up, since the second half of 2008, macro-control effective grasp of the "growth" of the short-term point of entry, issued a series of strong, fast, measures quasi policy, its effect has been revealed. In the first quarter of 2009, whether from the monetary credit level, the capital market level or the real economy, both statistical data and research results show that China's economy has shown signs of warming. But from the historical point of view, after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, 19,981,999-year GDP in the fixed asset investment led to a sharp rebound, but then again bottom, out of the "W-type" trend.　　Therefore, the Chinese economy is entering the upward channel, or will continue to linger in the predicament for some time, even for a long time, the views of the parties are not uniform at present. Third, the current economic recovery of the sustainability of the need to further observe (i) the economic recovery is stable criteria for judging the current international financial crisis has not yet bottomed out, the world economy is still in recession, the crisis period of trade protectionism is still restricting the growth of global commerce, we face the international situation is still very grim　　In the foreign trade situation which still exists in the risk, external need is difficult to recover obviously in the short term, and the policy focus of boosting domestic demand will be further strengthened. With different leading forces as the standard, domestic demand can be divided into two categories: one is market-oriented demand, including manufacturing, real estate, small and medium-sized enterprises and other private investment needs and residents consumption demand, such demand is largely determined by the market supply and demand, the other is the government-led demand, including railways, highways,　　The demand for investment arising from infrastructure construction such as the airport is mainly driven by policy.　　The policy path of active fiscal policy and 4 trillion-yuan economic stimulus plan is to increase government-led demand by government investment, to hedge against external demand, to increase the demand for private investment, to raise consumer demand, to enhance the intrinsic activity of the economy, and to escort the economy back to a virtuous circle. However, under the influence of slowing economic growth, declining corporate profits, implementing active fiscal policy and structural tax reduction, fiscal revenue fell 8.3% in the 2009-year quarter, while the financial expenditure increased 34.8%, and the overall view of the 2009 fiscal revenue and expenditure pressure will inevitably restrict the fiscal stimulus. Therefore, whether the economy can continue to rebound depends largely on the gradual fading out of fiscal stimulus, whether government-driven investment can effectively lead to a rebound in market-led demand and docking with government-led demand, thus providing a lasting and strong impetus for economic growth.　　If the answer is yes, China's economic growth will be able to achieve a smooth reversal, or there may be two dip. (b) The four factors determine the sustainability of the current economic recovery situation remains to be further observed 1. To return the economy to a virtuous circle and holdThe four factors that continue to grow faster--the start of market-driven demand is the ultimate driving force for sustained economic recovery.　　In fixed assets investment, private investment accounted for about 70, only the private investment demand and residents ' consumption demand can be restored and upgraded to ensure the stability of China's economic recovery. The end of the process of inventory is an essential part of a sustained economic recovery.　　The article points out that the enterprise inventory adjustment behavior is one of the leading factors of the GDP growth rate drop, only to digest the Prophase inventory, to drive the enterprise new investment to replenish the stock, and to realize the expanded reproduction, it is possible to bring about a new round of prosperity of industrial production. The rapid growth of corporate profits is the lubricant of sustained economic recovery. To achieve a steady increase in profits is the fundamental impetus for enterprises to reinvest, and only to achieve a steady increase in profits will attract more enterprises to invest, thereby prompting the revival of private spontaneous investment.　　Moreover, the growth of corporate profits can lead to wage increase, increase the income of residents, thus bringing about the expansion of consumer demand. --the recovery of the real estate industry is a powerful engine for the economy to continue to rebound. Real estate is an important pillar industry of national economy, the proportion of GDP in the country is close to 10%, it is the best industry of increasing investment, stimulating consumption and solving employment. Its industrial chain is long, industry association degree is very high, real estate rapid development can promote building, building materials, metallurgy, chemical industry, light industry, machinery, textile and so on more than 50 industries development.　　According to the National Bureau of Statistics input-output model calculation, in China every 10 billion yuan of real estate investment, can drive national economy each department output 28.6 billion yuan. 2. A concrete analysis of the above four factors remains to be seen as the sustainability of the current economic upturn is still to be observed – the start of market-driven demand remains unclear. It is difficult to make a leap in the short term for residents ' consumption demand. As we can see from our previous analysis, the stability of consumption growth is much higher than that of exports and investment. Consumption expansion is a result of a short-term factor and a long-term strategy.　　In the short term, the economic recovery is not stable, the employment problem is still very prominent and the expectation of the residents ' income will affect consumers ' confidence; in the long run, we need public goods investment system, national income distribution system and social security system to improve and perfect, and these system construction cannot be accomplished overnight The pulling effect of government investment on private investment demand is not obvious. In the first quarter of 2009, state-owned enterprises ' investment growth rebounded sharply, with a cumulative growth rate of 43.8% per cent since 2004. By contrast, investment growth in limited liability companies, joint-stock firms, private enterprises and collective companies has fallen or been flat with the overall growth rate in 2008, and private investment is still in a relatively depressed state.　　What is more noteworthy is that the overcapacity problem is likely to rise again if the economy continues to rely heavily on government investment to boost growth. Demand for industrial products is not strong. December 2009, more than the size of the industry to achieve sales revenue (main business income) 6.0601 trillion yuan, down 3.1% year-on-year, there have been recorded for the first time year-on-year negative growth. 2009 AQuarterly industrial product sales fell to 97.07% per cent to record lows, close to the lowest level in three years of last November, 97.03%. – Inventory may recur until downstream demand is fully restored. In the first quarter of 2009, the process of destocking continued. PMI raw Material Inventory index and finished product inventory index were 47.5% and 46.7% respectively, below the 50% demarcation line, indicating that the enterprise inventory adjustment activities did not end.　　As mentioned earlier, the reduction in inventory investment has weighed only two percentage points of the contribution of investment demand to GDP in the first quarter. Current inventory funds are still more occupied. At the end of February 2009, the absolute value of the finished products remained high, reaching 1.9802 trillion yuan, only lower than the 2008 5, 8, November months, still in the 2006-year high.　　Given the sharp decline in PPI, the inventory of finished goods is worth more attention. Going to inventory may occur repeatedly. Starting in December 2008, PMI stock index of raw materials stocks rebounded for 4 consecutive months, the finished product inventory index appears first after the situation, reflecting the inventory of raw materials has come to an end, and the production of finished goods to inventory progress difficult. In the previous article, the rapid growth of raw material imports and the production of finished goods inventory of the amount of capital used to confirm this judgment. A brief rebound in industrial production could lead to a relapse into the inventory process before the full recovery of downstream demand. In the steel industry, for example, industry inventories, which fell to a lower level of more than 5.6 million tonnes last December, rebounded again, with the steel stocks of our major cities reaching a record high of 11 million tonnes at the end of the quarter.　　The high stocks in the steel industry made March the production of large and medium-sized steel enterprises in China nearly 2 million tons. -Falling prices and falling demand have led to a sharp drop in profit growth for industrial companies. December 2009, the national scale of industrial enterprises to achieve profits of 219.1 billion yuan, down 37.3% year-on-year, compared with 2008 16.5% of the growth rate fell 53%. Factory prices of industrial products decline and demand fall together, greatly squeezing the profit space of industrial enterprises.　　In particular, the decline in demand not only led to a decline in sales revenue, but also resulted in lower capacity utilization, thereby increasing unit product costs. To observe the enterprises located in different positions in the industrial chain: The decline of demand in the middle and lower reaches and the sharp decline in resource prices lead to a severe decline in the upstream mining industry. Benefiting from the rigid demand for terminal consumption and the fall of raw material prices, in the downstream of the industrial chain of textile clothing, footwear,　　Pharmaceutical industry to maintain a good profit growth; for the middle-midstream industry, the substantial decline in the upstream raw material prices did not bring about an increase in the profit of investment goods production, indicating a sharp contraction in demand, steel, non-ferrous metals, equipment manufacturing and other heavy chemical industry profit growth has fallen or even losses, in the current round of economic adjustment was greatly affected. --Real estate market recovery is still not solid foundation, real estate development investment growth rate is still low. In the first quarter of 2009, the nationwide investment in real estate development grew only 4%, though rebounding from the previous two months, is a far cry from data in recent years, down 28% from a year earlier.　　Among them, the completion of investment in commercial housing growth of 3.2%, fell back 31.5%. The new construction area and land purchase area fell more than the same year. The first quarter, the National Real estate Development enterprise Housing new construction area 200 million square meters, fell 16.15%, the National Real estate Development Enterprise completed the land purchase area 47.42 million square meters, fell 40.14%, compared to last month's growth 10%. Completed land development area of 52.23 million square meters, down 11.31% year-on-year.　　Combined with real estate investment growth rate data can be seen, developers are still in the withdrawal of funds, digest inventory stage, the impetus for construction of new projects is still inadequate. The task of real estate inventory is still arduous.　　At the end of February 2009, the National vacant commercial housing about 200 million square meters, vacant commercial housing and the stock of land "to inventory" task is still arduous, regardless of market sales or developers of the capital chain has formed greater pressure. The National Real estate Development sentiment index continued to lower, the market consumer confidence still to be boosted. The March National Housing Boom Index was 94.74, still 0.12 points lower than in February, down 9.98 points from a year earlier.　　Although the first quarter in a variety of policy factors stimulated, some rigid demand began to release, trading volume rebounded, but consumer confidence is still unstable, in the context of the financial crisis, the expectations of income growth is not optimistic that buyers wait and see mood has not been eliminated. From the analysis of the above four factors, we believe that the government's demand for private investment is not obvious, the demand for industrial products is not strong, the start of consumer demand is not in a day, the market-leading demand for a comprehensive recovery has not come; current inventory funds occupy still more, to inventory process may occur repeatedly, overcapacity problem can not be neglected; The decline in profit growth of industrial enterprises is not conducive to the formation of a virtuous cycle of economic operation, the main engine of economic growth-real estate and export demand is difficult to fully recover in the short term.　　Therefore, it can be said that the current economic recovery in China, the basis of the evidence is not stable, its sustainability needs to be further observed. (The author is an analyst of a research Institute)