June China's new loans exceed 1.3 trillion inflation risk is worth paying attention to

The industry discussed the shift in monetary policy, with analysts pointing to the four-quarter catching up of joint-stock banks as the main force in June credit growth, causing many institutions at the end of the month to increase credit expectations, CICC expects June new loans to rebound sharply to at least 1.3 trillion yuan, and institutions to raise the forecast limit for new loans to 1.5 trillion yuan. However, the high investment in credit has also increased inflation expectations and asset bubbles. Some agencies expect monetary policy to adjust.　　Some analysts also believe that moderately loose monetary policy will not change until the first four quarters. Four major commercial banks have always been the main force of credit, but 5, 62 months of the four lines of new loans and their status is not commensurate. According to the reporter understands, as of 29th, BOC June new loan 150 billion yuan, the new deposit is only 120 billion yuan, the bank May new loans only 70 billion yuan, ICBC June new loan 90 billion yuan, the bank in May new loan more than 60 billion yuan, the bank of June new loan 74.7 billion yuan, New deposit of 92.2 billion yuan, the bank's new loans in May only 32.7 billion yuan, agricultural Bank of new loans in June nearly 50 billion yuan, unchanged last month.　　The big four banks ' new loans in June were only 365 billion yuan, well below their 40% banking assets, and joint-stock banks are still the main force of new loans. "As the proportion of capital projects has been lowered, many local projects have started, and the advantages of small and medium-sized banks in these local projects have naturally emerged." Moreover, the consumer credit, the bill business and so on have become our exerting force point.　　"In the first three months of this year, the large state-owned credit volume has been high and marketing is far less aggressive," said a person with a joint-stock bank. For June Credit volume reasons, CICC's report that, in addition to the bank's end of the end of the loan scale of the factors, but also reflects the central financial allocation and bank loans between the "tea and water" relationship, because capital construction projects mainly from the central financial allocations, capital in place after the banks to lend,　　Therefore, the relationship between the central investment and bank loans is tea and water, in May the third group of central investment was issued 70 billion yuan, thus driving up the June government project-related lending scale. As a result of the Better-than-expected credit growth of 5 June, institutions began to increase their full-year lending forecasts. Standard Chartered's research report predicts that new credit will reach $9 trillion to $10 trillion a year. Bashusong, deputy director of the financial Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, also believes that the annual credit growth will reach 10 trillion yuan. However, while boosting economic growth, high credit spending has also increased inflation expectations and asset bubbles.　　As a result, many organizations expect monetary policy to adjust in the four quarter. The Bank of China study found that the four-quarter currency pull began to appear, the CPI is expected to be 0.9% to 1.5%. China's monetary policy shift may be consistent with the external monetary environment, and China's moderately loose monetary policy is expected to shift at the earliest four quarters, said Chinese bank analyst Benji. The first policy tool to be used by the Central Bank will be window guidance, scale control and so on, and thenReserve tools will be used, and interest-rate instruments will not be available until the first half of next year. CICC expects that June CPI year-on-year decline 1.3%;ppi year-on-year decline of 7.4%, the chain decline has narrowed. CICC believes the recent deposit and loan data suggest inflation expectations are driving up investment demand. From the recent deposit structure, there are signs that residents ' deposits are "moving" into the stock market; from the structure of loans, residents ' medium and long term loans (mainly mortgage loans) rose markedly, maintaining a growth scale of around 100 billion yuan for three consecutive months, exceeding the level of the real estate market during the period from 2006 to　　This shows that although asset prices such as property prices may not be reasonable, inflation expectations raise the demand for investment. The Bank of International Settlements has also said that the world's major central banks may move too late to decide on measures to raise interest rates and withdraw their emergency liquidity plans, triggering the risk of rising inflation levels. As the world's loose monetary policy is based on the worst financial and economic crisis of the post-war period, the hesitation of central banks has increased the risk of a flood of liquidity, which could exacerbate inflationary expectations or create another asset bubble, the BIS said in its annual report, released on 29th.　　The BIS believes that the central bank now faces two risks, one is the risk of inflation and the other is the risk of insufficient policy to promote economic recovery, while the former risk is relatively large. CICC's research report says China will remain loose monetary policy in the short term, until the end of the central Economic Work Conference can initially release the signal of policy adjustment. It will be followed by tightening measures other than raising interest rates, but it is hard to tighten the loans, and raising rates would be possible by the first half of next year.