Li's ideas price regulation: a little more tax to give a little subsidy

At the Chinese macro-Economic Forum (2010-2011) held recently by Renmin University of China, a number of economists from the government and academia discussed the macro-economic situation of the "Twelve-Five" start year and made suggestions for the 2011 macroeconomic policy.　　Each economist gives analysis and advice on how to recycle liquidity, ease the pressure of price increase, grasp the direction of real estate control, and focus on these hot issues.　　Xiaoling: Monetary policy should be returned to a healthy National People's Congress deputy chairman of the Financial Committee, the former deputy governor of the People's Bank of China Xiaoling suggested that monetary policy should return to sound, China's future deposit reserve ratio still has room to increase. Xiaoling first analyzed the international and domestic situation facing China's financial industry in the 2011, noting that the international situation is that QE will not exit until the US-Europe-Japan banking system resumes its normal financing function. Because quantitative easing of monetary policy is a partial substitution of commercial bank financing. From the domestic situation, the too loose monetary and credit environment slowed the impact of the world financial crisis on China, but also worsened the structure, the way the monetary environment. "Structural adjustment, only in the case of capital tension can produce the fittest, but in the case of loose funds, we are impossible." "She believes that the current Chinese currency is an indisputable fact that must be addressed." 2001-2005 m 2 growth of more than G D p plus c pi growth rate of 5.4%, 2003-2007 more than 2.8%, 2008-2010 3 Quarter More than 9%, simply said the money supply and G D P ratio is not too descriptive, money supply over G D p and prices are growing too high, it does increase inflationary pressure.　　In the past, China has a process of commercialization and asset commercialization, absorbing a number of excess issued currencies, 2008-2009 to hedge against the impact of the international financial crisis, such a large number of money delivery, in fact, there are some side effects. "Monetary policy should return to moderation. Xiaoling points out that too much money has increased inflationary pressures, spawned asset bubbles and must be managed.　　Specifically, the simplest way to control the money supply should be the increment of M 2 equals g D p plus the CPI control increment, magnified by 1%-2%.　　In addition to the stability of monetary policy, we must accelerate the pace of financial system reform, reduce the passivity of monetary policy, deepen the reform of the capital market, promote the international settlement of RMB and actively participate in the reform of the international monetary system. Countermeasures against financial international environmental impact. Xiaoling put forward three suggestions, the first step to increase hedging efforts to reduce the impact of international hot money on China's real economy. Second, straighten out factor prices and reduce exchange rate pressure. To evaluate whether China's exchange rate is undervalued, first depends on the price of tradable goods, but there is a distortion of the price of serious factors in China. If the factor price is straightened out, the renminbi may not be undervalued. Third, controlling interbank liquidity and market liquidity, forcing high market interest rates and reducing asset bubbles.　　There is still room for China's reserves to be raised, as China's reserve reserves are interest-paying, and the bank's deposit-making requirements cover the cost of deposits and will not have a hard financial impact on commercial banks. Li: Easing price increases with a policy mix the central bank's monetary policy committee member, director of the finance Department of Tsinghua University, said China is still a cost-driven, structural inflationary pressure rather than demand-driven inflation.　　He suggested that the problem should be solved in fiscal policy. In his view, the vast majority of China's current production capacity is still abundant or even surplus, and in the 80 and early 90, the mechanism of price inflation is completely different. Therefore, the current price rise is mainly cost-driven, Lewis inflection point basically came to promote the labor cost of China to improve. International raw material prices, environmental protection and energy-saving requirements to improve, so that domestic enterprises operating costs increased.　　In addition, adequate liquidity is also an ancillary mechanism. In response to this cost-driven inflation, he suggested that policies should be comprehensive, mainly in the supply side, mainly on fiscal policy. "A little more tax, more subsidies for certain sectors, more supply of agricultural produce or vegetables with short production capacity, and proper control of hoarding and investment, will ease the price rise." "He also pointed out that through a number of policy combinations, it is possible in the near future, to ease the pressure of price increases." While adopting fiscal policy measures, we should enlarge the range of exchange rate fluctuation and accelerate the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism on the basis of controlling and autonomous.　　This way to resolve the international raw material price increase pressure. Li Deshui: To increase supply and system construction as the core regulation of real estate deputy Director of the Economic Committee of the National Political Consultative Conference, the former Director of national Statistics Li Deshui said that the regulation of real estate, should be increased supply and system construction as the core.　　In addition, the real estate capital control must grasp the strength, not to force too fiercely. Li Deshui said, short-term control of funds is right, but also to grasp the strength, not force too fierce, if the force too fierce, the real estate capital chain suddenly broke, will also bring a series of problems. "In the application of macro-control policy we have a lot of such lessons, one said to regulate, what means to use, go all out to press down, and finally over the head and then back, resulting in a number of unnecessary losses, to master a good yardstick, the level of the height in the discretion between." "Increasing supply and institutional development is not only a medium-term goal, it is also an urgent need to do now." Li Deshui pointed out that the urgent matter, should be affordable housing construction and housing construction at the same time, should not be all market-oriented.　　The low-income groups all buy commercial housing is impossible, to walk on two legs, two channels, the government should bear some of the construction of affordable housing, but can not go back to the old way of welfare. Affordable housing, especially the public rental systemDegree of construction is imminent, otherwise it will give the lawless elements of the people to drill loopholes, so that the enjoyment of the people did not enjoy. "From the current point of view, public rental and other affordable housing construction to speed up progress, looked at the number of provincial, starting rate of 90%, this year's plan of the State Council, the Urban Housing construction plan is 5.8 million, plus the rural building 1.2 million sets, 7 million sets, the scale is quite large, Although the operating rate is high, but how much is the real investment? Li Deshui also said that speeding up the construction of affordable housing has three advantages: first, can solve the middle and low-income groups and social sandwich layer housing needs of major livelihood issues. Second, increase the supply, can effectively curb the price of commercial housing.　　Third, large-scale construction can keep China's fixed assets investment scale at a reasonable level, and involved in the industry has 55, to the national economy stable and healthy development is advantageous. Shengzu: To guide the expectation and to manage inflation is the most important of the current macro-economy the NPC Standing Committee, the deputy chairman of the Internal Justice Commission, Deputy president of the Central People's Democratic Alliance, Shengzu said that guiding expectations and managing inflation is the most important macroeconomic.　　In order to avoid the catastrophe caused by the flood of liquidity, it is necessary to adopt a policy mix and a gradual approach to manage inflation, and to attract excess liquidity from the stock into strategic and modern service industries. Shengzu that the current currency, rising costs, international market input, hot money speculation, inflation expectations, natural disasters, six of the fire heat the rise of our inflation channel. "The 17th State Council executive meeting has launched a battle against inflation and price stability, but this battle is definitely a protracted battle, and we are now in a time of high cost, with high costs driving inflation." "He further said that the fight against inflation is definitely a protracted battle, so to adopt a policy mix and adopt a gradual approach, it is absolutely impossible to use" Western medicine therapy "in the hope of a very short period of time to press down.　　In addition, to prevent panic, guide the inflation expectations, but also to prevent imbalances, two-pronged and both internal and external, and then one to protect the weak, with fiscal policy to do a good job. On the control of liquidity, Shengzu said, the control of liquidity, on the one hand to adjust the increment, on the other hand to control the stock, in addition, the expected guidance is also important. "There are a lot of liquidity now, and in some places, especially the real economy is badly short of money, and the real economy needs a lot of liquidity now," he said. "Therefore, the excess liquidity in the stock should be attracted to the strategic emerging industries and to the modern service industry, so as to avoid the catastrophe caused by the flood of liquidity."