Liu Jipeng: Asset price rise is normal can not be one-sided exaggerated bubble harm

The 500-year-old eclipse spectacle did not affect the stock market in the slightest.　　July 22, the super large-cap stocks Sinopec, China's oil all the way up, pushing Prev to break 3,300 points, hit a new high, this is the first time since June 10, 2008 Prev to 3,300 points above. Not just the stock market.　　The rise in asset prices, represented by the stock market and the property market, has worried the markets: is the policy going to have to come out of control again? Previously, liquidity-induced inflation expectations were identified as loose monetary policy to turn, but the first half of the macro data will be "disintegration": June CPI (consumer Price index) -1.7%,ppi (Industrial Factory price index)-6.2%.　　This is already CPI, PPI 5 consecutive months both lost. Now, the rapid rise in asset prices has again sparked fears of a shift in policy easing. Suisse, chief economist at Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB), said the next round of macro-control would not necessarily be CPI or PPI, but FPI (Financial price Index). He refers to the FPI, the financial asset price index.　　His view is that the inflation of financial assets, like consumer-price inflation, makes economic development unsustainable, and that early evening forces governments and central banks to take a cooling action that triggers a downward cycle in the economy.　　However, Premier Wen has repeatedly expressed his position that the Government should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and fully implement the "package", in particular to increase support for safeguarding and improving people's livelihood. Moreover, at the Chinese University of Political Science and political science professor Liu Jipeng, the current asset prices such a rise is completely normal. He to the "investor" reporter said, now a a-share market has a good capital, there is a vast market demand, a shares go up is normal. It is not normal to take a a-share and US stock market more than price/earnings ratio. "What is the growth rate of US GDP, and how much are we?"　　The current rise in asset prices is fully matched with China's macroeconomic ". The initial heat of asset prices in the global economy is still not out of the shadow of the crisis, the first economic recovery in China is attracting international attention, a large number of international hot money is again inflow.　　This time, of course, they aim not to revalue the renminbi, but to the soaring asset prices represented by the stock market and property market in China. With the start of the 4 trillion fiscal stimulus, the liquidity of the banking system began to turn into credit, flowing to asset markets such as equities and real estate, where asset prices showed a marked upward trend. This year, the A-share market is undoubtedly one of the world's most eye-catching market.　　Shanghai Composite Index from the beginning of less than 2000 points, rose to the current 3,300 points above, the rise has reached 80%. Real estate market, warmer trend established.　　According to data released by the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Bureau of Statistics, June 70 large and medium-sized cities in the country housing sales prices rose 0.2% year-on-year, the increase is 0.8% from May, the chain Rose 0.8%, the increase is 0.2% than May.This reporter statistics, the year-on-year rise in housing prices in January 2008 to reach 2005 years since the highest point of 11.3%, showing the way down, the March 2009 data for the decline of 1.3%, to become the lower prices of this round. April-May, year-on-year decline gradually narrowed, June to year-on-year rise.　　The chain rose at the end of 2008 to reach the lowest point, with the relaxation of credit policy, showing a gradual rise in the trend of June, the Year-on-year, the chain are both positive. Home sales grew 31.7% in the first half and sales rose 53%, according to the statistics bureau.　　According to the calculation, the average price of the national property market rose 16.48% between six months. The pros and cons of the asset price rise in the end is more advantages than harm or more harm than good, experts and scholars, market people can say there are two different views. The rise in asset prices is often the prelude to inflation, the chief economist of CICC.　　Asset bubbles are growing and inflation expectations are rising. "Long-term asset bubbles will generate inflation. "Macro-source securities advanced analysis of the teacher in the interview with the investor newspaper reporter also said.　　The current rally, he argues, would do more harm than good.　　Fan Wei that if the currency were to continue, a super asset bubble would emerge, with a "collective devaluation" of the monetary system relative to the asset system in the case of a virtual economy (money supply) relative to the real economy, which would be a big probability event. This asset bubble could lead to inflation, the main idea that the rise in asset prices does more harm than good. In the direction of policy, the central bank may shrink the currency.　　The World Bank's chief economist, Justin Yifu Lin, has suggested that central banks should focus not only on consumer price indices but also on stock and asset prices in order to prevent a new asset-price bubble, causing a resurgence of the financial crisis. In this regard, Liu Jipeng has a different look, he firmly believes that the increase in asset prices is more advantages than disadvantages. He believes that the rise in asset prices is conducive to the development of capital markets, the better the stock market, listed companies will be better performance. "This is not the company's mutual shareholding to bring about a big increase in investment income, more importantly, a healthy stock market will have a good financing function, and low-cost access to funds, the company's development is critical." "In Liu Jipeng's view, only the rise in asset prices to promote private capital investment enthusiasm, and this is particularly important for China's economic development." He believes that the transformation of China's economic development mode, the key is the transformation of the financing mode, "let the market to support resources, is the most efficient." [Page] helps to stimulate investment in the stock market without a bubble.　　A trading market, there is no bubble, the key is the size of the bubble. "The rise in normal prices is now an acceptable margin. "Liu Jipeng said. He believes that in the next few years, China's GDP growth rate of less than 8% is not possible, asset prices will not exaggerate the damage of the bubble, it is not yet when asset prices overheating。 Simply from this year's increase, the stock market 80% of the rally seems to be a bit overdone, but and a a-share in the course of the past several years linked together, it will find that this can only be counted as a return of value.　　The Shanghai Composite Index slipped from the October 2007 high of 6100 to 1600, a little more than a year, and now it is not too much to recall 80%. Talk about the property market. In spite of less than 20% per cent, it is also one of the hardest hit by the rise in asset prices, which is related to people's livelihood. From the people's livelihood factors, the house of course is the cheaper the better, after all, the Chinese consumption capacity is limited. But from the overall economic development, the fall in house prices is not a good thing.　　It is involved in the upstream and downstream industry is too much, is a lead and move the overall situation. In theory, higher asset prices will eventually be transmitted to the commodity sector, triggering inflation in the real economy. But inflation is always better than deflation, and moderate inflation is good for the economy. "There is a serious problem of overcapacity and it needs moderate inflation." Within 3% to 4% is acceptable.　　"Liu Jipeng said. Overcapacity is already quite serious. July 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first half of 2009 industrial and Telecommunications Industry Economic performance, Ministry of the press spokesman Goodspeed made clear that the government authorities have been on the steel, shipbuilding, cement industry overcapacity has great concern.　　If the shipbuilding industry, 16 million tons of capacity is surplus, exceeding the total capacity of 1/4.　　A modest rise in asset prices is clearly a boon for the real economy, and for investors, the positive impact on wealth accumulation is greater than the negative impact on the long-term. In the first quarter of this year, our GDP year-on-year growth of 6.1%, two quarterly GDP growth of 7.9%, then our three quarter may be more than 8.5%, four not excluding more than 9%, but the size, speed, total, does not indicate the structure, this round is mainly central government investment brought up, does not have a long-term,　　Sustainability. Although the central investment also led to private investment, but the main drive is bank loans, because to the big project supporting funds, banks have to lend forcefully. And the rise in asset prices, the real meaning of the private investment-driven effect, is obviously even greater.　　Private funds through the capital market direct investment, but also can attract VC, VC, Private direct investment, foreign investment and other funds. It is more important to boost market confidence without administrative regulation of asset price asset prices rising. For the stock market and the property market, confidence is more important than anything else.　　To support China's economic development, it is inseparable from a healthy capital market. "To cope with the global financial crisis, China needs not only a positive fiscal policy and a loose monetary policy, but also a positive stock market policy to make the ' double product ' a ' triple '." "Liu Jipeng called.　　In his view, the basic points of the stock market to implement positive economic policy should be at 4,000 (index). The positive stock market policy, is the market, that is, "policy City" let is located in "markets". Do not see asset prices, including equities, riseCame, and tried to "regulate" with administrative hands.　　The biggest risk in the stock market now is not the rising bubble but the executive hand. Worry is not unfounded. Zhangxiaohui, Director of monetary policy of the Central Bank, published in Caijing magazine the "Thinking on asset prices and monetary policy", which has aroused great concern in the market.　　"The central bank needs to rethink how monetary policy should respond to asset prices, given the current changes in the global inflation mechanism," the paper said. Although the topic was discussed in the form of individual articles in the media, the market agreed that it underscored the central bank's intentions.　　However, investors need not worry too much that, under the central bank's cpippi-oriented monetary policy, theoretical exploration will not become a reality for a short period of time. Believe that policymakers will not see asset price inflation as a scourge.