Local property market low fluctuation price or regional downward

This reporter Lu Ying property market credit environment tightening, the housing enterprise capital chain is further tightened. Once entered the new rate hike cycle, the regulation of the "policy superposition effect" will enable developers in the fourth quarter to step up the push to withdraw funds in the regulation from the tight policy environment, the recent property market turnover has shown low volatility. The tightening of the credit environment of the property market, the state departments have increased the supervision and examination of the financing channels of the housing enterprises, and at the same time, the Government at the end of the year to promote the housing construction, the housing enterprise capital chain further tightened.　　Industry insiders expect that once the new rate hike cycle, the real estate regulation of the "policy superposition effect" will enable developers in the fourth quarter to step up the push to withdraw funds, housing prices may be a regional downward.　　Local market fluctuations from the central Plains real estate market information, at present, in addition to Shenzhen second-hand housing markets have rebounded, the new residential and second-hand residential volume in the last week continued to continue the previous few weeks low fluctuation trend. Monitoring data showed that 9 major cities in the new market volume of new home markets slightly increased by 3%. In the first-tier cities, Beijing-Sui two city transactions fell 10%-30%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Two-ring growth in 15%, the second-tier city transactions are mostly maintained in 10%-20% fluctuations.　　Second-hand housing turnover, Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai Spike deep in the 5 major cities in the overall chain before the week slightly down 3%, of which Beijing and Shenzhen continue to rise, the chain increase in 20%-30%, and Shanghai, Guangzhou and Tianjin, the chain has fallen, the decline in 10%-40%. Jahau statistical data show that November as of 20th, Beijing commercial Residential housing, the cumulative deal 7546 sets, 775,500 square meters, the same period October, 47.84%, 29.4% respectively. The figures reflect the number of commercial residential transactions in Beijing to double the chain, but this is mainly the security of housing projects focused contract. The agency's deputy general manager Gao analysis, because the affordable housing is all the faster, and the area is small. Deduct the affordable housing, in the early November Beijing, the real estate commercial housing contract only 4877 sets, 549,000 square meters, 14.09% and 11.15% respectively in the same period October. In the early November, the average price of commercial residential transactions was 20468 yuan/square meters, the chain rose 658 yuan per square metre, the increase was only 3.32%; actual demand for commercial housing fell sharply.　　This shows that two times the impact of regulation is deepening, the demand for home purchase is greatly suppressed. Housing enterprise financing has been gradually tightened since late October, the real estate market has felt the most obvious policy signal is that credit is in full tightening. To speed up the construction of affordable housing is an important indicator of real estate control this year, in order to ensure the achievement of this indicator, last week, the Ministry of Finance, the NDRC, the Ministry of Housing and Urban and rural construction of the three ministries issued the "on the security of housing project funds use management related issues notice" Regulation from 2010 onwards in ensuring the completion of the year, under the premise of low-cost housing security, can be the existing net income from the land transfer of less than 10% of low-cost housing security funds for developmentPublic rental. At the same time, the central government from both the supply and demand of both sides tightened the financing of real estate development, forcing the housing enterprises to tighten funding. To strengthen supervision over the pre-sale funds for commercial housing, the CBRC issued a notice requiring the Trust Company to conduct compliance risk self-examination for real Estate trust business, in order to prompt the trust company to pay close attention to the risk of real estate business, to stop the real estate developers from the trust curve financing; The SFC has also halted refinancing　　The application of refinancing housing enterprises to take a "one-size-fits-all" Comprehensive shutdown measures, and the total of 60 companies have been blocked refinancing. November 19 The central bank again announced a rise in deposit reserve ratio, the central bank's monetary policy tone has shifted from moderately loose to moderate. In the face of the end of the year, agriculture, industry and construction of the four major banks of the annual credit line has been exhausted to stop new development loans, the end of the year before developers large-scale financing a few possibilities Many developers look forward to two or three months to get the next year's loans. However, a few days ago, new loans will be reduced in size next year.　　At this time the capital chain has tightened, the "money bag" the most concerned about the real estate business is not as leisurely as before, and these policies for small and medium-sized developers the biggest impact. Last week, the Ministry of Commerce released data showed that the real estate sector to use foreign capital increased by about 50% per cent year-on-year, significantly higher than other areas of foreign investment growth. Although domestic developers face financing difficulties, the relevant policies and measures for overseas financing have not been strictly implemented. But authorities recently reiterated that the 2006 restrictions on the purchase of property by individuals and institutions outside the country should be a precaution against foreign hot money speculating on the mainland property market, meaning that tightening of foreign hot money is already in the centre of sight.　　Zhongyuan Real Estate believes that the housing market "outside" may become the next step in the policy focus. Changes in market expectations the industry believes that in the case of a comprehensive tightening of real estate sources, once again into the interest rate hike cycle, the resulting "policy superposition effect" from the fourth quarter of this year will be more obvious reflection. The central monetary policy shifted from moderately loose to a sound tone, meaning that the financing of housing enterprises will remain in dire straits for some time to come.　　Recently, developers have begun to adjust their expectations and push to withdraw funds. Judging from the situation in Beijing, as a result of the new policy, December 1, new pre-sale projects will be strict pre-sale funds supervision, pre-sale funds will only be used for project construction, which makes the recent preparations for the opening of the project have obtained pre-sale certificate, some of the original preparation for the December opening of the project has been early to November in late opening. As of November 20, the total number of pre-sale projects and pre-sale projects in Beijing has reached 28, compared to the same period August-October March total of 26 more than 2 pre-sale items. Total pre-sale area reached 743,000 square meters, far more than the first two months combined.　　It is expected that the November full month pre-sale projects will exceed the September 40, the highest in the year. Jahau agency statistics show that December Beijing planned the opening of 20 projects, of which 6 pure new plate, December developers plan to push the volume relative to theLimited, but the new trend of the city eight district project to speed up the push plate has appeared.　　Property buyers "pattern" is also quietly changing. According to the 21st century real estate news, at present, Beijing to purchase the most strong foreign buyers in Beijing has been evident in the market. Since April macro-control, due to "non-Beijing staff in Beijing loans to provide more than one year tax payment vouchers," the limit, 5, 62 months, the foreign buyers in the proportion of the purchase of home buyers in a straight-line decline. But as the market gradually digested the policy, the proportion of home buyers in Beijing has rebounded sharply in recent years. Its proportion has accounted for all the buyers of 50%, and the new deal before the basic balance.　　And now the whole city of the proportion of home buyers reached 55.3%. Zhongyuan Real Estate Information, "9 29" since the New Deal, promulgated the "Limit purchase order" the most stringent Shenzhen market whether it is the source of the volume or turnover has recently increased rapidly. Last week, the number of new customers has rebounded to the "9 29" before the highest level, the volume of the basic return to the middle of August level.　　According to analysis, buyers believe that the price has not been significantly reduced due to regulation, expected to be dashed. The rise in CPI and uncertainty about future house prices makes many people start to be restless, in the absence of better investment channels, some buyers start from the wait-and-see state out.　　Some of the first-tier city people began to enter the city without restriction policy or the relatively low price of the third-tier cities to invest in housing, value, and run to win the CPI is now a lot of foreign buyers direct motivation. Policy role Regional price adjustment recently, the Chinese People's University School of Economics issued the "China Macroeconomic Analysis and prediction report," said that 2010 China's GDP growth rate is expected to be 10.1%; In the first half of 2011, China's real estate industry capital chain will have serious problems, prices will appear near 20% decline,　　This prediction has aroused the concern of all circles of society. Zhongyuan Real Estate believes that, compared to the 2006 and 2008 of the property market regulation, this year, the beginning of the September two regulation although the most severe but the effect is still not obvious. Due to the soaring property prices in the past 2009 years, most developers ' financial pressure will not be too large. At present, most are still in a relatively safe operating state, far from the risk of breaking the capital chain edge.　　Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management Network statistics also show that the city of China's commercial housing in the adjustment is still rising, the real price of the developers are rare. The future housing prices in the role of regulatory policy, regional changes or more obvious. such as Beijing Tongzhou property market in March this year excessive overdraft new Town planning good, so that prices from 15,000 to 25,000. Tongzhou now has more than 20% of Beijing's inventory of actual items. So Tongzhou recently appeared overcast and downward.