News says June New credit 560 billion policy fine-tuning time window emerges

Chen Kun, Shin 560 billion yuan!　　This is the latest data from our correspondent for the June increment of RMB loans.　　Thus, the first half of this year's RMB loan increase reached 4.58 trillion yuan, "half" regulation to achieve the basic goal. Joint-stock banks have made great sacrifices. Data from the joint-stock bank showed that in June, 12 joint-stock banks increased the loan by only 60.07 trillion yuan, a sharp contraction in the chain.　　A listed joint-stock bank with an asset scale of more than a trillion even closed its loan approval system as early as June 20 to prevent the branch from issuing a loan at the quarter-ending point, creating pressure on its own loan-to-deposit ratio. Although the June credit did not show a clear "timing spike", a number of small and medium-sized banks reflect another grim fact – insufficient credit demand.　　But Lianping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, said: "The credit situation will change after three quarters."　　In the first half of this year, RMB credit was less than 2.8 trillion yuan, highlighting the role of the credit Gate in the "adjustment structure", the local government financing platform, real estate, "two high left" sectors of the credit is effectively limited, and these are the 09 days of credit "beneficiaries." Some experts point out that economic growth or decline in the second half of the year, but does not necessarily imply a recession.　　As the authorities are highly concerned about the macro-economy, two of the economic dip will not occur.　　Guild Wars June: Deposit and loan to carry the banner July 6, a large bank of funds said that June new loans in the 560 billion, basically according to the regulatory layer set the "3:3:2:2" of the credit rhythm of the launch. This means that the first half of the new loan scale of 4.58 trillion yuan, in line with the total amount of credit control and progress requirements.　　Because in accordance with the annual credit increment control in the 7.5 trillion yuan target and quarterly "3:3:2:2" distribution pattern, the first half of the loan increment should be 4.5 trillion yuan. In fact, the first quarter of the credit increase than the target of 300 billion yuan, but did not repeat the two quarter, from the regulatory authorities timely "window guidance."　　Around April, some 3 national banks received "yellow cards" and were given a moratorium on market access, the source said, with immediate effect.　　In June, the loan increment structure of 560 billion yuan, the contribution of joint-stock banks is very little, less than 70 billion yuan, and the increase in the big line may be flat in the first two months of 300 billion yuan, the remaining 200 billion yuan from the local banking institutions.　　For small and medium-sized banks, according to the total and rhythm control requirements, this year's credit growth is required to control in 22%, of which the first half should be controlled within 13%. At present, this requirement is "satisfactorily" completed. July 6, a joint-stock bank said, according to the exchange of data show that the first half of this year, joint-stock bank loans increase of about 700 billion yuan, growth rate of 11%, into the regulatory requirements. Among them, the deep development loan growth rate is lowest, no more than 5%, and its capital constraint, the other major joint-stock banks are in 11% leftRight。 A number of joint-stock bankers blunt, last year the second half of the restraint of the credit impulse "sword" is the capital adequacy ratio, and this year is the loan-to-deposit ratio.　　This also can explain, why 4 May joint-stock bank loan increment all is about 118 billion yuan, but June only is 60 billion or 70 billion yuan, the scale falls obviously. "Joint-stock banks are relatively high in the loan-to-deposit ratio, in order to control the loan-to-deposit ratio, the banks began to rob deposits in mid-June, if it can not solve the problem, can only pressure loans."　　"A listed joint-stock bank related personage discloses. Commercial bank deposit pressure, from the central Treasury Cash Management Commercial Bank of the bid (hereinafter referred to as "Treasury cash bidding") can be illustrated.　　In the first half of this year, through 6 Treasury cash bids, the central bank injected 200 billion yuan into the banking system for a period ranging from 3 months to 9 months. Irrational behavior must occur under high pressure. In January this year, the 6-month Treasury cash tender bid rate of 2.92%, after the pick up level.　　June 24, the sixth phase of the bid rate as high as 4.2%, compared with the first phase of the rise of nearly 44%. "Treasury cash bidding is an emergency action, some banks have greater pressure on deposit and loan ratio."　　"A small and medium-sized bank Capital Department official said that the bank has participated in the June 24 bidding, because the tender interest rate is low, drubbing."　　Due to the pressure of loan-to-deposit ratio is too big, under the feeling of being nasty, a listed joint-stock bank simply closed the loan approval system on June 20, preventing the branch bank from using the last 10 days "Chong Loan". At present, joint-stock banks can be a long sigh of relief, because at the end of June, the stock-lending ratio is basically below 75%.　　The first half of the joint-stock Bank's RMB deposit growth reached 14%, higher than the credit growth rate of 3%, thereby pulling down the level of loan-to-deposit ratio. Credit demand fans in the two quarter of this year, the new loan size from April 774 billion yuan, May 639.4 billion yuan, and then June 560 billion yuan, showing a trend of decline.　　But a local commercial banker said that credit line controls had been in place at the head office, that there had been no systemic tightening in June and that the new loans were smaller, in addition to the control of credit lines, largely from the weakening of credit demand. Two joint-stock bank related leaders also agree with the above judgment.　　Listed joint-stock banks said that the clean-up of government financing platform, real estate and land storage institutions, the "two left" industry, as well as "three measures, a guideline", these have an impact on the demand for loans.　　June 18, the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee members, the State Council Development Research Center, Director of the Institute of Financial Research, said Xia, and its exchange of bankers on whether the loan increase can reach 7.5 trillion yuan this year, because according to the current policies, last year, 60% of the reserves are not allowed to borrow.　　In addition, a joint-stock bank from Zhejiang Province, the survey found that small and medium-sized enterprises to expand the inventory of loan demand also appeared to decline. Monita banking analyst Chilli told reporters that, according to its latest research, in June, local credit demand was notWell, 1-May the growth trend in credit demand was more pronounced, but the trend of demand improvement in June was interrupted. "While there was no big downturn, there were some local credit demand declines.　　"In the last days of June, some banks are still worried about the unused loan limit and the bill market is visible." China Bill Network shows that from June 25 to July 1, the share price to buy mainly, the price of 42.505 billion, accounting for the total price of 60%, and the previous weeks has been the main selling quotes. On the market, the interest rate also fell back, to peak around June 28, around 6%, but 29th began to fall, the day fell as high as 14%.　　Bankers confirmed to reporters that the bank had made some discounting of bills in the last days of June in order to use the full loan limit. However, there are structural differences in the lack of credit demand.　　June, the state-owned large-line credit is not too much impact, individual branches even feel the demand for credit is relatively large. A state-run Beijing branch of the country, the bank in June, financial pressure and credit pressure are relatively large. "Even we have not figured out why the demand for loans has suddenly increased in the end of June, as if the loan scale was inadequate and very tense; Although the overall tension this year was greater than last year, June is worse than the previous months." "The above analysis, the end of June, from the state-owned enterprises, the central enterprise credit demand is relatively large, but do not know the specific reasons." However, demand does not necessarily mean that loans can be put out. "Companies are anxious to have money, branches have impulses, but the head office has control." "Once the quota is full, the credit approval system will be closed automatically and branches will be hard to trust," said the bank. "" There are structural differences, mainly to look at customer structure and marketing capabilities, customer structure reasonable, strong marketing ability of banks, loans can be released.　　"Lianping said. While some banks feel that demand for loans is less robust than in the first quarter, lianping that the situation will not be the same.　　Take the international market as an example, after this round of shocks, the European market began to stabilize, the U.S. market is also going well, foreign trade and related industries demand for loans will increase; "The credit situation will change after three quarters." Societe Generale senior economist Lu Commissar also said that in terms of finance and investment policy, in addition to the start of the local debt and financing platform for corporate debt issuance accelerated, after the completion of the financing platform in late June clean-up, is expected to allow the project has been launched before, operating transparent norms, with debt service capacity of the financing platform to continue to move forward; Affordable housing will also be accelerated to ensure that the full year of the task must be completed.　　These are bound to spawn new lending needs.　　Policy fine-tuning time window emerging?　　Behind the tightening of the credit gate is the potential pressure on macro-control brought by the amount of money supplied by the sky.　　According to Jing Daming analysis of Minsheng securities macroeconomic analyst, although the credit in the first half of 2010 tighter control, but a large amount of money, from M2 and GDP, loan balance and GDP ratio, the 2010 1 quarter have reached the highest level in history. Faced with overcapacity and a housing bubble, Xia saidThe new risk, austerity needs to be tightened, so China's economy cannot be expected to grow too fast; In the context of a sluggish economic restructuring in the world, including China, and the problems of markets and external demand, the second half of this year's high growth of 11.7% per cent will be good　　May fall by 2%-3% in psychological preparation and policy preparation. "But relative to the high growth in the first quarter, the slowdown in the second half of the year does not mean a recession."　　Xia added. In a study, Goldman Sachs, July 2, lowered its real GDP growth forecast for 2010 to 10.1% from the previous 11.4%.　　Before the policy stance was adjusted, GDP growth in the two and three quarters of 2010 would likely fall to 8% or even lower, he said.　　Goldman also predicts that the slowdown in economic growth in the three months since August should be enough to make the government change its policy stance. Lu Commissar said that for the fundamentals, due to the high concern of the macro-authorities, China's economic year should be no "two dip" in the worry.　　A modest pullback in economic growth has only reduced the risk of inflation. Policy level, "the tone unchanged, the operation to loose fine-tuning." Lu County judge, at the end of the second quarter to the second half of the macro policy reset the process, fiscal policy and monetary policy tone will not adjust, but will be too broad, too fierce investment credit tightening fine-tuning.