Next year China's economy is expected to fully recover urbanization is still an important power source

By the economic department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Quantitative and Technical economics, social science Literature Publishing house jointly sponsored the "2010 Economy Blue Book" and China's economic situation analysis and prediction Seminar in Beijing.　　The meeting analyzed and forecasted the main problems of China's economic development in the 2009 and 2010, announced the major indicators of national economy in 2009-2010, and officially released the analysis and forecast of China's economic situation in 2010. The economic blue Book points out that from the perspective of coping with the international financial crisis, our economy has experienced the first stage from July 2008 to February 2009, namely the "rapid decline" phase, and is currently underway from March 2009 to the second stage, which is expected to last until the end of this year, the "stabilisation and recovery" phase. In 2010, China's economy is expected to enter the third stage, that is, the "comprehensive recovery" phase, that is, entering a new cycle of the rising stage.　　At this stage most of the industry, or most of the economic indicators are picking up. In addition, the international financial institutions to China's economic growth in 2010 also made a clear rebound forecast. According to the 2009 7 ~ October, international financial institutions forecast China's economic growth in 2010: Morgan Stanley, 10%, Barclays Capital, 9.6%, BNP Paribas, 9.5%, HSBC, 9.5%, International Monetary Fund, 9% JPMorgan Chase, 9%, Asian Development Bank, 8.9%. UBS Securities, 8.5%.　　The comprehensive range is 8.5%~10%. The Blue Book also pointed out that in the new cycle of the increase in the rate of urbanization, as well as the corresponding real estate industry, especially the development of the housing industry, is still a new cycle of important power source. At present, in order to promote the development of China's urbanization, especially to make the housing industry become the important pillar industry of the new round economic cycle, we must solve the problem of rising house price. If this problem is not solved, it will seriously affect the development of urbanization and even affect social stability. The development of China's housing industry has gone through three stages: formerly, under the highly centralized planned economy system, the housing problem in the city is mainly arranged by the government, the housing is in a serious shortage. Later, the housing commercialization, fully to the market, promoting the housing industry's great development, but also make the house prices continue to climb, and later, the market and government responsibility to combine. Now it seems that in order to effectively curb the rising trend of house prices, we must further adopt the "drastic measures" approach, that is, to expand the part of the government security, not only the urban low-income people housing problems from the market, but also to the urban middle-income housing problems from the market, into the scope of government protection. But to the urban middle income housing security is "guaranteed" everyone has the right to live, can rent the room, rather than "protect" everyone has property rights, but also under the protection of the government, the market-oriented operation, rental housing has high, medium and low-grade, can be independent choice.