Non-manufacturing market operations still in the expanding range

Non-manufacturing market operation is still in the expanding range--from CFLP PMI to unscramble the current economic Situation China Logistics Information Center in November 2009, China's non-manufacturing Business activity index was 53.2% and the chain fell 7.3%.　　Since there is no comprehensive index for non-manufacturing, the overall change in the non-manufacturing economy and the production supply status are usually reflected in the business Activity index. The change in the index of business activity suggests that this month's non-manufacturing economic activity has fallen off under the influence of seasonal factors. However, we think that the non-market economy activities are still within the range of expansion in the context of the major index changes.　　The main performance: Business activity index Nine consecutive months to maintain more than 50%, the New Order index reached 50.1%, still remain near the level of 50%, the employee index reached 51.5%, the business activity expected index remained in the high range of 60%, reached 63.9%, and a small increase of 0.2%. Three major types of industry data changes show that the activities of various industries have slowed down, but the performance is not the same 1. Productive services maintain moderate growth in November, the Business activity index of producer services was 55.4%, the chain fell by 3.8%; The New Order index was 53.7% and the chain fell 3.4%. The level of data indicates that while the market operation and demand activities of producer services have slowed down, they have remained at a moderate level of growth driven by the growth of the manufacturing economy. And the decline in producer services this month was the smallest in the three sectors.　　It is noteworthy that, unlike last year's New Order index for producer services, which fell below 50% per cent, the producer services sector remained above 50% in November this year, maintaining the level of 53% per cent for nine consecutive months, demonstrating the stability of demand for productive services this year. This month, the rapid development of high-end services such as computer services and software industry, telecommunications and other information transmission services has effectively driven the development of producer services in industries that support the steady growth of productive services.　　At the same time, the market activities and demand of the logistics industry have also maintained a more stable change. 2. Consumer services business activities and demand fell back obviously the consumer business activity index reached 49.3% this month, the New Order index reached 47%, all fell below 50%, and the chain has a larger decline, indicating that its business and demand have declined.　　The decline in consumer services activity this month is largely influenced by seasonal corrections. According to the specific industry, the main industries that led to this month's consumer service industry are the accommodation industry, catering industry and other industries affected by seasonal consumption factors. Accommodation and catering Business Activity index and New Order index of the chain have a significant drop, and under 50%. However, as the main industries reflecting the changes in the consumer goods market, such as the retail trade, have maintained a certain level of growth. This month, the retail Business activity index was 59.5%, the New Order index is 57.3%, all maintained at more than 50%.　　The construction business activity maintains the high position, the demand growth drop needs to pay attention. The Business activity index for the construction industry this month has fallen, but remains above 60 per cent, to 60.5%, indicating that the construction market remains active. But relative to the operating activities, the market demand for the construction industry has fallen slightly faster. The New Order index for construction this month reached 52.2%, falling below 60% for two consecutive months. Although the demand for the construction industry will show a seasonal correction after September of each year. But judging by the rate of correction, the demand for the construction market this year has been faster than it did last year. In November, the construction industry's New Order index fell 9% from September, more than 4.6% in the same period last year.　　Therefore, the follow-up changes in the construction market demand need to pay attention to. This month, while the non-manufacturing market activity has fallen back, there are still two things to be concerned about: 1. The middle input price rose not less this month, the median input price index reached 66.6%, the chain up 5.2%, five consecutive months to maintain the quarter-on-quarter rise, and increase further expansion. Reflecting the situation of enterprises, reflecting the rise in the price of raw materials, the proportion of enterprises has risen rapidly to 9.8% in October 2.9%. Previously, the proportion of enterprises reflecting the problem has remained relatively stable. And from the three major industries, the construction of the middle input cost is the most obvious, enterprises generally reflected in steel, cement and other raw material price fluctuations, directly led to the construction costs and procurement costs of the sharp rise. Compared with the middle input price, this month, although the price index of the chain rebounded 0.9 points, reached 53.8%, but the extent is still relatively small.　　This means that non-manufacturing companies still face the continued compression of profit margins. 2. Real estate market activity rebounded slightly, demand is still depressed this month, the real estate market Business activity index reached 53%, the chain Rose 2%, three consecutive months to maintain more than 50%, indicating the real estate business activities relatively stable. But its new order index has remained at 47.3% levels, the chain fell 0.4%, two consecutive months to maintain more than 50%, reflecting the market demand is still depressed. In addition, the real estate industry in the middle of the price index reached 63.3%, the chain Rose 5%, reached the highest point this year's history.　　The housing market will also face a double whammy of sluggish demand and rising costs. In combination, this month's non-manufacturing economic activity showed a seasonal correction, but the overall remains in the expansion range. In the three major industries, the change in the related indices of producer services shows the stability of the industry's growth. Construction market activity is still high, and its demand change remains to be seen. In addition, the change of the intermediate input price trend still needs to be paid more attention.