Official first disclosure of hot money data last year net inflow 35.5 billion

Reporter Li Yuping China's hot money in the end how many?　　The official figures are the first to be disclosed, despite a variety of calculations by the private sector. February 17, China's State administration of foreign exchange issued a report on Cross-border liquidity Monitoring, the first disclosure of the official estimates of "Hot money": 2010 "Hot money" net inflow of 35.5 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 7.6% of the increase in foreign exchange reserves, accounting for the GDP of 0.6%.　　And over the past decade, "hot money" has been pouring into China for nearly 25 billion dollars a year, accounting for 9% of the increase in the same period.　　Still overvalued? In the official disclosure of the 35.5 billion dollar "hot money" scale data, "the data are estimated in the light of the BOP account and with the Chinese characteristics of cross-border receipts and payments and bank exchange," said the head of the authority 17th, but the data included some non-arbitrage projects, so 35.5 billion dollars of "hot money"　　Scale may still be overvalued. However, in the past, private calculation of hot money is the increase in foreign exchange reserves minus the trade surplus and FDI (foreign direct investment).　　2010 China's foreign exchange reserve balance increased by 448.1 billion U.S. dollars, the trade surplus of 183.1 billion U.S. dollars, FDI for 105.74 billion U.S. dollars, according to the above calculation method, hot money of about 159.3 billion U.S. dollars.　　Obviously, according to this calculation, the scale of hot money is at least 4 times times the civil overvaluation. "The amount of hot money is really difficult to judge, we should only consider these conclusions as a reference." It's hard to say which data is closer to the truth, because the hot money is hidden very deeply.　　Qin Qijiang, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics, said in an interview with our correspondent. The report stated that in recent years, the discovery of "hot money" illegal inflow of typical cases and channels have, processing trade through the high rate of payment and other means of foreign exchange, entrepot trade enterprises to use receipts and payments to increase net inflow, the false use of foreign capital of shell companies, foreign exchange capital illegal settlement, individual split settlement, Banks to break short-term external debt indicators into funds and so on.　　However, most of the cases found in the inspection are mainly domestic institutions, individuals and overseas Chinese, usually in the form of "Ant move", and have not yet found the large-scale influx of international "financial giants". "The story is not a substitute for data. "According to the relevant head of the foreign administration, although there are many" hot money "large-scale entry into the story, but from the data monitoring, did not find large-scale abnormal capital cross-border flows.　　At present, the continuous net inflow of cross-border funds is mainly attracted by the steady and rapid growth of China's economy, and the arbitrage operation of institutional and individual "assets of local currency and foreign debt" may increase the volatility of Cross-border capital flows to some extent. The official measuring caliber currently, there is no strict definition and standard on the scale of "hot money". However, there are two major international approaches to analysis: First, direct measurement, capital and financial projects outside of direct investment, and total error and omission projects (also known as net capital flows in the form of indirect investment). The second is the indirect measurement method or the residual error method,Use of foreign exchange reserve increments minus trade surpluses and net inflows of direct investment.　　But the former cover narrow, and the latter blow face too large, may overestimate the "hot money" scale, and foreign exchange reserves also exist in valuation factors.　　Therefore, in estimating the scale of "hot money" in China, China Foreign administration has borrowed the indirect measurement method, and combined the reality of China, adjusted the reserve increment and elimination project. The report gives specific methods: first, to identify some more stable, legally compliant trade and investment projects, and assume that their transactions are real and legitimate, mainly import and export surplus, direct investment net inflow, overseas investment income, domestic enterprises listed overseas financing repatriation and so on.　　Then, by deducting the above four items in the amount of foreign exchange reserves generated by the transaction, the difference is basically a reflection of the potentially more volatile Cross-border capital flows, known as fluctuating Cross-border capital flows or "hot money" net flows. In this respect, some experts say, although there are still deficiencies in this approach, but more reasonable than others. In the past 10 years, the growth of China's foreign exchange reserves can be explained largely by the trade surplus, net direct investment inflow, overseas investment income and legal compliance foreign-related economic activities such as foreign listing of domestic enterprises.