Small scattered grassroots research: Spend 100,000 run 280 companies frankly buy 2 shares

2013 is not a good year for "value investing"; one side is the booming entrepreneurial board, the theme of emerging industries to hype a wave; On the other side, the undervalued traditional industries continue to fade. This year, more investors believe that value investment is not suitable for a-share market, but also to make more investors believe that China's economic outlook is bleak. "Investment Express" previously reported: "The company ran 200 companies over the past six months," the object of Chen Ling in this year still silently insist on his journey, spend 100,000, run 280 listed companies to participate in shareholder survey. With the most grassroots approach, one step after the footprints of the understanding of China's economy, to explore the survival of Chinese enterprises. "Investment Express" reporter special interview with him, through his conversation, we feel he spent a year to run out of experience. Reporter: Last year is the theme stocks, Gem Great bull market, the other side of the main board continued to slump, resulting in a lot of people say value investment in China has no value? Chen Ling: China is certainly suitable for value investment, but it needs investors to have a complete understanding of it, rather than blindly imitation. Many people believe that a low price/earnings ratio, low market net rate is low valuations, there is a safe margin, which is quite one-sided, and many times will fall into the value trap. Liquor stocks are a good example of how many value investors have fallen into the trap last year. In fact, anti-corruption is only a trigger to accelerate the decline of the industry, the industry boom for many years, the money-making effect led to excessive investment, so that the entire industry overcapacity, it is normal to fall back. This adjustment may take several years of time, if the short-term vision to buy, it is easy to lose money; If you look far beyond a few years, Maotai stock price rise back to 260 yuan still is possible. Similarly, bank stocks are the same, even if underestimated, does not mean that the immediate rise. In addition, there are reasons for the low share prices in some industries, and there are indeed pessimistic factors. For example, the new technology to the old industry impact, or the entire industry overcapacity, can not use financial indicators to determine how much safety margin. In addition, it is impossible for an enterprise to remain outstanding. Companies, like some that have been considered good, tumbled last year and also tied up some capital and large institutions. In fact, the core factors driving the development of such enterprises have changed in the bad direction, if investors are blind, it is a normal thing to be stuck, not the value of investment is not good, but the value of investment people do not understand the value of investment. China is certainly suitable for value investment, but need a complete understanding of value investment, and take seriously the characteristics of China's national conditions and the whole capital market, more flexible and realistic value investment to use well, in order to have good profits. Reporter: How to view the gem rose? The rising trend of emerging industries? Chen Ling: Last year, the market capital is limited, the funds are more like to hype some small market capitalisation of stocks, so this kind of stock rally is a certain reason. In addition to capital, the gem is also the direction of the future transformation, emerging industries to avoid the traditional industrial transformation of the pain, but there are some fundamental is not too good, the performance is not too good business, the stock price also rose. Reporter: Many people think that the traditional industry will slowly die out, what do you think? Chen Ling: These years in the economic transformation period, some traditional industries are indeed in trouble, but there are good companies, the stock price performance is good. For example, I hold lutai a (market, inquiry) and Jiangling Motor (market, inquiry), a do textile, a car, are old industry old stock, last year's performance is very good, because they have gradually out of the predicament, the operation inflection point appeared. Old industry has sufficient historical data, its development law is relatively easy to grasp. Journalist: How do traditional industry executives look at these issues when you're researching? is the traditional industry not up to the trend? Chen Ling: The traditional industry is adapting to the positive transformation of the times. For example, two real estate companies, Oct business is tourism and real estate, it now began to expand the tourism business, the previous major development of real estate projects, is now more focused on customer service and brand, from the heavy asset model to the spiritual and cultural aspects of the transition. Pearl River Industrial (market, interrogation) is also a real estate company, the former development of housing, is now concentrating on the study of old-age real estate. Although the house is built, but the focus of work is greatly different. The old-age real estate more focus on the elderly's service capacity, such as the project corresponding to the medical services, suitable for the elderly, and the national Medical Information connection. These businesses value their added value more than simply building houses and selling houses. Journalist: How do the executives of emerging industries look at the current situation? Is the outlook really good? Chen Ling: For example, I investigated the light media (market, interrogation), with the chairman of the Wang Changtian exchange, when he said that considering investment in the hospital line, I raised objections on the spot. I think that the light media is a light assets of the enterprise, the fixed assets balance is only 22 million, investment in the hospital line will immediately become a heavy assets of the enterprise, the burden is too big. In addition, the current investment in the hospital line is too many enterprises, the supply will gradually become surplus, a cinema investment tens of millions of, may be completed after the investment of the entire industry surplus, do not make money. The chairman thought and told me that he decided not to vote. Even emerging industries, if not seriously analyze the industrial situation, the expansion of the brain fever, there will be problems. Emerging industries, as new things, though seemingly hopeful, are virtually impossible to grasp. Last year, a lot of emerging industries, the surface of the performance is very good, in fact, through mergers and acquisitions of the way growth, the use of money to increase income, this method in fact, the quality is not high, the subsequent integration is not very easy to go wrong. Overall, the new or old industries are the same, only the level of management of the difference, all need to step by step steady growth, more important is the accumulation of core competitiveness. Reporter: How many homes have you run this year? How much did it cost? After your event was reported, did more investors learn to run you? Chen Ling: About 280 companies have been running this year, mainly in Guangdong province, costing about 100,000. Prior to the publication of my report, the shareholders ' meeting was often the only one of my retail investors, and last year found a lot of retail investors, but also met a lot of good friends. At the same time, listed companies began toPay attention to the relationship between investors and management, many companies to ask me how to communicate with investors. Journalist: What's the benefit of running for another year? Chen Ling: The benefits are not immediately effective, the ability and experience is cumulative. For example, I hold the Lutai A and Jiangling car, is a few years of research, wait a few years before the purchase opportunity. Just, run more, see more, know how to avoid some value investment traps, will not easily fall in. Reporter: Economic data show that China's economy is slowly rising at the bottom, how do you feel after field research? Chen Ling: I think the rebound is not obvious, is the structural recovery. Some industries are still deteriorating, and some industries are picking up. After the 4 trillion investment in 2008, many enterprises misjudged the situation for large investment, so that the surplus industry further surplus, a lot of capacity to slowly digest, bitter days may continue for some time. I personally judge that the economy is likely to pick up in the three quarter of 2015, when most sectors will rebound. It's too early for the bottom, and I guess 2014 is still a year of economic adjustment. Journalist: What do company executives think of the real economy this year? Chen Ling: I went to Quanzhou in the last period of industrial technology (market, inquiry), is to do cowhide leather enterprises, downstream customers are footwear. At present, the clothing, shoemaking are depressed, the chairman of the judge at that time, to 2014 three quarters of the industry may appear inflection point. I ran so many enterprises found that many enterprises are not too good efficiency, the renminbi appreciation too fast, grass-roots labor costs rise too fast, at the same time, the Enterprise upgrade transition takes time, these factors are restricting the development of many industries. Overall, the executives of listed companies are not optimistic about the economic situation this year, but they are trying to reverse the situation. Journalist: Which industries do not look good this year? What industries do you watch? Chen Ling: I don't care about industries that rely heavily on the economic cycle, and the industries that are related to raw materials, because the entire economic adjustment period is not over and the overcapacity situation will not change in the short term. For example: Coal, cement, non-ferrous metals, construction machinery These industries, not so quickly appear to improve. Promising industries are: medical care, health care, eco-environmental protection and brand consumer goods, there are some TMT enterprises, but this industry involves a relatively large, with the development of emerging economies, the Internet, some companies will appear some subversive products, can instantly change the entire industry pattern, this is worthy of attention. Reporter: What do you think of the stock market this year? Chen Ling: I think the transition period of Chinese enterprises is not over, it is estimated that this year is still a bear market, which does not rule out a small part of the structural cattle stocks, but this big bear market may be 2015 years to see the bottom. In addition, the new shares are the 2014 play, it is estimated that the return on new shares will be very high, there may be related speculation. The issue of new shares may also cause some industries to fall in share prices, such as some last year, the growth of the gem and small plate, originally a subdivision of a few listed companies, but not scarce after the new shares, the valuation will fall. Reporter: This year, you feel the Chinese economyWhat changes are taking place? Chen Ling: Overall, the pattern of economic development has changed from the previous quantitative growth to the quality-type growth. Companies can no longer make money from big investments, and the future relies more on wisdom to make money and rely on unseen assets; For example, the technology, management level, design capability, and brand value of an enterprise will become more important in the future. With the increase of income level, people's demand from the past simple material possession, to a higher level of spiritual, cultural service needs. Last year can be seen, mustard, soy sauce, film and other industries and stock prices are quite good, because the people began to have money, began to choose more advanced product consumption. I contacted the discovery, the listed company executives also very diligently, although the situation is caused by many external factors, and their own ability to work, but they do not blame days by people, in efforts to reverse the situation, but this transition process takes time to conquer.