Stage aluminum or substituted copper "colored flag bearer" status spot trader or consider hedging

June 4, LME aluminum price soared, electronic disk prices from the lowest 1466.5 U.S. dollars/ton jumped to 1586 U.S. dollars/ton, the rise is close to 8%, become all non-ferrous metals in the rise of the largest varieties (the same day copper price rose 4.44%, zinc price rose 4.21%). Is there a fundamental change in the supply and demand dimensions of the aluminum market?　　The answer is no. Stocks are still high with the rise in aluminum prices, LME inventory is reduced. June 2, LME inventory reduced by 1125 tons, June 3 LME inventory reduction of 6900 tons. The decline in LME inventories for two consecutive days is not unique in recent times, though relatively rare. Since the beginning of the year, the number of LME inventories has been reduced by a total of 11 times, which from March 23 to April 20 in the one months of the 8 inventory decline, but the aluminum price basically did not fluctuate greatly. From the start of 1445 dollars/ton, to the later 1440 dollars/ton, aluminum prices also fell 5 dollars/ton. In this one-month period, the final LME inventory was increased by 195125 tonnes. The above data indicate two issues: first, the impact of inventory on aluminum prices is small, although there are 8 inventory reduction, but the aluminum price did not rise sharply; two, a few days of inventory reduction can not change the trend of inventory increase.　　So the reduction of LME inventories may not be the reason for the Thursday LME aluminum price rise. Inventory data is an important indicator of supply and demand balance, and the rise in inventories indicates that demand remains sluggish relative to supply.　　It is because of the market on the sale of aluminum is not flourishing, it has led to the continuous raw aluminum into the LME warehouse. Price rises push aluminium prices from April 29 onwards, crude oil prices began to rise from 50 U.S. dollars/barrels, until the recent approximation of 70 U.S. dollars/barrels, crude oil prices rose by nearly 40%, and the current upward trend is likely to continue. LME aluminum prices in the same period of about 1450 U.S. dollars/ton, before the Thursday rise is still at 1468 U.S. dollars/ton price, almost no change. Aluminum is the most energy-consuming metal in non-ferrous metals, and the average cost of producing one ton of electrolytic aluminum is 14000-15000 kwh. In the eyes of some foreign funds, aluminum is the curing form of energy. While oil prices are an important indicator of energy prices, the rise in oil prices is likely to enable the Fund to look for those who are more closely related to energy and not so big variety, and aluminum just meet this requirement.　　The fund's massive increase in aluminium holdings is likely to be the main cause of the Thursday aluminium price spike. Spot business or consider hedging domestic spot prices with the help of LME aluminum price increase, recently also appeared a sharp rise. Yangtze River Average price 13700 yuan/ton, South Reserve average price 13600 yuan/ton, future may even continue to 14000 yuan/ton breakthrough. According to manufacturers and traders, the current market due to aluminum, God fire and other aluminum plants exist reluctant phenomenon, resulting in a slightly tighter supply of aluminum. Price breakthrough 13500 yuan/ton ofAfter the psychological pass, the buyer's strength has increased markedly and the deal has become very active. The current level of spot aluminum prices, so that most manufacturers already have a profit space. It would be a good opportunity for manufacturers to take part in hedging.　　Because the fundamentals have not been completely reversed, the price of this round of inflation base is not reliable, the future price of aluminum prices may not be completely ruled out. The dollar index has steadily stabilized since the April 21 dollar index fell from 86.85 to the nearest low of 78.334, down 9.81%. But the dollar index rallied again in Friday, back more than 80, suggesting that the dollar index may have been poised for a temporary farewell to the downward trend.　　The rise in commodity prices, driven by the fall in the dollar index, may soon be over. The LME aluminum price of the increase is unexpected, in the past all the rise in the market, aluminum prices are followed by copper price, the rise is always a lot less than copper price, almost every time is the weakest among the varieties of non-ferrous metals. This time it has become a leader in the rise of non-ferrous metals, in the final analysis, the market is worried about rising energy prices. Next, if the oil price has not been hit, the future aluminum price will be likely to shock upward.