STCN Color Double Weekly: aluminum stock or the policy dividend for the transfer of rare earths October launch

I. Data and market operation QE exit expected still make metal pressure aluminum stocks or due to policy dividend September 23, HSBC group released data showing September HSBC China manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) The initial value was 51.2, higher than the August end of 50.1, the HSBC PMI for the second consecutive month at the top of the line, and hit a 6-month high. The index of manufacturing output rose to 51.1 in September, at a 5-month high, with a new order index of 6-month highs and new export orders for the first return of 50 over 6 months. The stock index returned to the top 50 for the first 8 months, and the finished product inventory index is also picking up.　　In this respect, Qu Hongbin, HSBC's China chief economist, said it showed that China's economic growth continued its recent rebound and that the outlook for the future was gradually improving. While domestic data show signs of a warmer economy, the United States has delayed the withdrawal of QE internationally. Just past the Mid-Autumn festival, the Fed said in a September conference that it would not start QE (quantitative easing) exit. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the decision not to start QE was a major risk in terms of a possible renewed stalemate in Washington over deficit reduction and debt ceilings, and a sign of recent financial strains.　　At the meeting, the Fed is more cautious about economic growth. Although HSBC's data continued to be good and the US delayed its withdrawal from QE, the metal market has not shown a strong growth momentum in recent days and is still in shock. In the past two weeks (9.11-9.25), the non-ferrous Metals index has fallen by about 5% per cent, while the Shanghai index has fallen by about 2%. Some analysts believe that although the United States delayed QE exit time, but the existing expectations will still be pressure on metal prices.　　On the domestic front, although the economy is showing signs of recovery, the restructuring is still the main tone, and the likelihood of a massive stimulus policy in the management year is low, and the short-term Neinian of metal prices have strong growth momentum. However, it is noteworthy that today, the non-ferrous plate aluminum stock is a single show, in the leading China aluminum trading, led by the other aluminum stocks also rose all over, including the cloud aluminum shares (000807, shares bar) rose more than 5%. Some market participants believe that the aluminum stocks today's move or be affected by the reform dividend. Recently, the SEC spokesman said that the merger and reorganization of listed companies to implement the separation system will be implemented in the merger and reorganization Audit since October 8.　　of which electrolytic aluminum, such as nine to promote the merger and reorganization of key industries.　　Second, double weekly focus on rare earths and tens of millions of October start-up although from the non-ferrous metal market to see the bright spot, but from the relevant colored varieties of policy and reform level, the rare earths are undoubtedly the most market concern, following the first few months of rare earths private mine to combat the storm, and now the country is scheduled to start in October billion plans to plan. According to sources, the National Plan for the stockpiling of rare earths will be opened in October, the entire plate will have tens of billions of dollars, and mainly medium and heavy rare earths. Some Rare-earth companies pointed out that, although the national stockpiling, but in fact last year is the form of corporate invitation, large rare earths enterprises are generally invited, especially the state-owned enterprises. According to the above information, the acquisition of the participating enterprises have 6, including Baotou Steel Rare earths (600111, Stocks bar), Minmetals rare earths (000831, shares bar), in the color of the shares (000758, shares bar), aluminum rare earths, Guang Sheng nonferrous (600259, shares bar), Ganzhou Rare earth Group, The product has 4000 tons of praseodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide 500 tons, dysprosium oxide 1200 tons or 1500 tons, erbium oxide 300 tons, also plans to the stockpiling of europium oxide, terbium oxide 500 tons, yttrium oxide 2500 tons or 2000 tons, and oxidized lutetium, a total of 10,000 tons, And the country will be a little bit more than the latest market price.　　However, the relevant rare earths companies said they had not received formal notice. On the other hand, the integration of rare earth conglomerates is expected to or affect the entire Rare-earth industry pattern. September 24, the Chinese-color shares will be thrown out of the plan to raise funds not more than 1.785 billion yuan. The 450 million yuan will increase the southern Rare earth (Xinfeng) Co., Ltd., the implementation of 7000 tons/year of rare earth separation smelting project. After the completion of the project, Xinfeng Co., Ltd. will become the largest single rare earth separation smelter, the capacity will be expanded 1.3 times times.　　Industry insiders believe that the medium-color shares significantly improve the separation of smelting capacity, not only to alleviate the upstream mining subjection, or would like to take the lead integration of the southern Rare-earth Large Enterprise group qualification. It is reported that since 2010, the state has never stopped promoting the formation of rare earth conglomerates.　　The State Council has also disclosed that the fastest will be the end of the year before the introduction of rare earth Conglomerate Integration Program guidance, will set up the entry threshold for large enterprise groups, with the conditions of the enterprises on their own request, and then wait for approval.　　Third, the relevant information at a glance the rare earth traders cut many varieties price agency analysts said 17th, because the rare earth documents are still not officially issued, manufacturers are still watching, not in a hurry to ship, and traders eager to ship, Tuesday cut many varieties offer.　　According to agency data, 17th, heavy rare earth oxide continued to cut 2%, this is a 2.1% reduction in the 13th correction;　　U.S. House of Representatives to reduce rare earth imports through strategic mineral Law chart The US Congress passed a bill seeking to speed up the exploitation of its strategic mineral resources to reduce reliance on imported rare earths. The motion says the United States currently has 19 kinds of non-fuel minerals completely dependent on foreign imports, the demand for more than 50% of the imports of non-fuel minerals reached 24, including various rare earth elements.　　Meanwhile, in 25 major mining countries, U.S. authorities have been approving mine-mining licences for the longest time. August Copper Tube Operating rate held steady material September slightly rose Shanghai nonferrous Metal Network 16th to the domestic main 21 copper Tube production Enterprises survey results show that the August copper pipe enterprise Average operating rate of 75.76%, the chain is basically flat, year-on-year increase of 4.33%. In 7 August this year, a large area of high-temperature weather, many days of high temperature to refresh the historical record, directly led to the domestic air-conditioning sales market hot. Since last year air-conditioning has been in the inventory status, to July industry online data show home air-conditioning inventory of 6.26 million units, the inventory for a few years low value. Low inventory suffered from the sustained high temperature of the air-conditioning consumption blowout, the conventional off-season air-conditioning production period did not show a significant off-season effect, air-conditioning enterprises to maintain a smooth production of copper tube demand to maintain stability. Into the September, air-conditioning enterprise production arrangements are differentiated, part of the 7 August large digestion of inventory enterprises began to adjust the production of goods, and most of the copper tube enterprises have not obviously entered for export order stock cycle, the overall production to maintain a stable.　　Copper pipe start rate is expected to rise to 76.92% in September or only slightly. August electricity to support the economic recovery August the whole society's electricity consumption increased by more than 13%, this is the first double-digit growth in the year, also set a 25-month new record.　　Boqiang, director of China Energy Economics Research Center, said that in the whole society electricity structure, the residents who are affected by the climatic factors accounted for only about 14%, the proportion is industrial electricity, and industry is the main reason for the big increase in electricity consumption. Since May this year, the whole society's electricity consumption year-on-year growth continued to rebound.　　This year January-February, March, April, May, June, July, the total electricity consumption of the whole society increased 5.5%, 2%, 6.8%, 5%, 6.3%, 8.8% respectively.　　Ministry of Commerce: last week, non-ferrous Metals and other means of production prices fell slightly according to the Ministry of Commerce monitoring, last week (September 16 to 22nd) The national capital goods prices fell slightly. Last week, the main means of production, minerals, non-ferrous metals, energy, rubber, steel, agricultural prices fell, light industrial raw materials, building materials prices flat, chemical product prices rose. Mineral prices fell 1.8% from the previous week, with tungsten, iron ore, copper and zinc ore prices falling 2.2%, 1.9%, 0.9% and 0.5% respectively.　　The price of non-ferrous metals decreased by 0.5%, of which the price of a few lead, a few copper, a few tin prices fell 2.4%, 0.5% and 0.5%,1# zinc prices flat, the price of nickel, A00 aluminum rose 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. August electrolytic copper production rose to 560,500 tons 23rd, statistics show that August China electrolytic copper production of 560,500 tons, the chain growth of 25,900 tons.　　January-August cumulative production of electrolytic copper 4.3255 million tons, an increase of 12.26%. After the overhaul of some smelting enterprises in August, the output was obviously recovered. August Copper concentrate TC/RC rapid rise, the overall climb to a long single processing fee level above, coupled with the rebound in copper prices also promote domestic smelting enterprises to start the initiative to speed up the production of copper concentrates after the transformation of copper concentrate. In addition, copper prices in the rebound to 52000 yuan/ton above, copper and electrolytic copper spreads quickly widened, the average monthly price difference level for this yearThe best state since March. Asian spot copper smelting costs hit a two-year high of $100 per ton according to Hong Kong September 16, the source said in Monday, Asian copper smelting costs rose nearly one-third since July, to two years since the highest level of copper concentrate supply increased. The increase of refining processing fee (TC/RC) means the profit growth of smelting business such as Jiangxi Copper industry.　　But the increase in refining costs encouraged some smelters to speed up expansion, which would depress global prices for refined copper. A trade manager at a copper smelter in China said: "The cash refining process for this quarter should not be less than 100 U.S. dollars and 10 cents, in addition, the last occurrence of 100 dollars and 10 cents of the level is in the middle of 2011." Last week's refining process cost 92 dollars and 9.2 cents, and July was 72 dollars and 7.2 cents. "January-July global aluminum demand increased by 1.3% to 26.83 million tons World Metals statistics Bureau recently reported that the world's original aluminum demand in January-July increased by 1.3% to 26.83 million tons, the same time the world's original aluminum production increased by 3.7% Year-on-year. 2013 1-July Global aluminum supply surplus 773,000 tons. Four exchanges in London, Shanghai, the United States and Tokyo totaled 5.83 million tonnes in July, up 177,000 tonnes from the end of last year. The recent Chinese government intends to resolve the situation of domestic electrolytic aluminum overcapacity, so that the supply of aluminum market pressure to further ease. East China's supply of tension, spot to maintain the price of water, but the original aluminum production in August than the previous month increased by 1.3% to a record 1.863 million tons. Raw aluminium production grew by 5.24% in August compared with August 2012. Original aluminum production again high, so that aluminum price long-term pressure. The current domestic macro news is relatively calm, investors wait for the 25th price down on the specific impact of aluminum prices, the short-term operation of aluminum price is not very clear.　　Xinjiang opened aluminum Ingot class to promote the "Xinjiang aluminum" sinotrans, with the acceleration of domestic inventory transfer, east China and other aluminum ingot inventory is expected to increase in the near future, aluminum prices caused by repression, is the price of aluminum down, while rising water market or will return to paste water market. (STCN company News Center Guzhikuan) ("Securities Times" News center)