Stock Market "heatstroke" second recruit underestimate value stock always flash

Summary: At present, the valuation difference between industry of a-share market is in a very high level in history, and the existence of the difference of valuation between industries will make more investment opportunities in the industries with advantageous valuation.　　To gain a better return on investment in the second half of the year, seizing the industry's investment opportunities will be one of the key.　　Our reporter Zhang Xueqing index rebounded to more than 3,000 points, the market valuation also "rising", the stock price also let people feel no longer cheap. Valuations are still in a reasonable range as of July 10, the A-share market is 26.58 times times the overall ratio, the city's net rate is 3.47 times times.　　Shanghai 300, Shanghai 180 and Shanghai 50 of the overall price-earnings ratio of 24.66 times times, 23.55 times times and 22.52 times times, of which Shanghai 50 of the lowest price-earnings ratio, the overall PE level is still the highest, 39.22 times times, still higher than the market other major indices of the price-earnings ratio level. The city net rate of the board is also the highest, 4.85 times times higher than the overall level of the market.　　The lowest level of the city's net rate is Shanghai 50, 3.21 times times.　　Analysts believe that if according to wind statistics of the 2009-year performance forecast, the market overall dynamic P/E ratio of 23.57 times times, the market price-earnings ratio is still in a relatively reasonable region, the market is relatively stable, relatively high level of the relative history of a more reasonable. The industry's moves will highlight "the rise in the first half of the year is marked by a rise in valuations, while more structured investment opportunities are likely in the second half."　　"Haitong Securities analyst said. Haitong Securities Research report that the current fiscal policy, the implementation of a relatively calm policy, monetary policy in a delicate sensitive period, large-cap IPO and the impact of the decline in the domestic market is looming.　　In this context, investors can focus on "low valuations + real performance support" industry investment opportunities. "In the second half of 2009, the characteristics of the industry's wheel movement may be more pronounced. "Liangfeng, director of AIA Huatai Investment, industry leading fund manager, said," through the valuation study of the industry found that the current a-share market valuation differences in the history of a very high level, especially in the financial sector, and other sectors of the valuation there are obvious differences. The existence of such differences in valuation will lead to more investment opportunities in sectors where valuations have an advantage. Liangfeng points out that one of the main reasons for the difference in valuation is the structural contradictions in China's economy. And as China's economy picks up, the industry's valuations will change. In the current economic environment, the company's performance will be to a large extent affected by the industry boom.　　And from the historical statistical results, in the economic recovery phase, the industry's boom is very obvious.　　Therefore, in the second half of the year to obtain a better investment income, seize the industry rotation of investment opportunities will be one of the key. Looking for low valuation industry statistics shows that 20 of the 23 sectors have a higher-than-market level of earnings, of which more than 30 times timesThe industry has 18, 20 to 30 times times between the industry has 4, 10 to 20 times times between the industry has 1; there are 3 industries with a price/earnings ratio lower than the market level, which is 24.96 times times the energy,　　Information technology 21.4 times times and financial 19.62 times times, the highest price-earnings ratio of 3 industries are integrated 79.16 times times, non-ferrous metals 63.28 times times and Tourism leisure 60.28 times times. The statistics also showed that the market level of the 15 industries was higher than that of the markets, while the other 8 industries were below the market level, of which the top 3 industries were 6.96 times times the electrical equipment, 6.75 times times of the food drinks and 5.16 times times the synthesis, the lowest were 2.82 times times of Transportation,　　Paper printing 2.74 times times and 2.07 times times the black metal. From a stock-price earnings ratio, the number of companies below 30 times multiples continues to decline, with more than 30 times times the number of companies continuing to increase, with the market continuing to rise in the short term, with market valuations shifting upwards.　　The lowest level of the price-earnings ratio of the shares in the delivery and coal stocks in the majority, the lowest level of the city's net rate of steel, delivery and paper-type stocks in the majority.　　Two types of industry configuration brokers analysts believe that, as the blue chip market may continue to deepen, relative to the market valuation, coal, securities, medicine, machinery, highways and other plate valuation there is room for improvement.　　Haitong Securities recently to investors recommended two major types of industry configuration.　　Offensive configuration: Cement plate, brokerage and equity brokerage plate, banking sector, offensive and defensive configuration: Retail, wine, liquor.　　Haitong Securities believe that the common characteristics of these plates are relatively low valuations, real growth in performance. The industry's earnings multiples (excluding negative earnings) for the past four quarters are 34 times times the current cement plate, with valuations at 30th lows in all 60 segments, and the historical bull-market cycle averaging 56 times times P/E, at a 80%-high level in all sectors. In terms of performance, the 6 companies that have recently released their forecasts show that net profit rose 45% in 2009 years, and that the future growth of the cement plate comes from the continued implementation of infrastructure projects and the pull of new projects on real estate.　　Early after 3 months of adjustment, is expected to borrow power in the interim report performance ushered in a wave of rising prices. Brokerage plate in all sectors of the valuation in the 55th level, while the historical bull market period brokerage plate valuation at 95% High, with valuation repair needs.　　In terms of performance, brokers and proprietary businesses are expected to enhance the 2009-year interim report. The bank plate is currently valued at 17 times multiples, the 5th lowest in all sectors, while the historical bull-cycle Bank plate is valued at 28 times times the average, at 35% in all sectors, with the need for valuation fixes. In terms of performance, the Bank of Ningbo's net profit is up 30%, and the big banks, which are expected to benefit from the credit of government-led infrastructure projects, also have a bright performance. At the moment, credit-frequency hyper-scale is a far more negative shade of narrowing spreads.Rang。　　Bank risk comes from bad loans, but it will happen after the real estate bubble is really broken, and the short-term is basically worry-free. The current valuation of retail plate, wine and liquor plate is obviously underestimated both in the historical bull market and the bear market, and has the advantage of "offensive and defensive".　　In terms of performance, 12 companies in the retail sector forecast a net profit increase of 8% this year, 3 liquor companies reported net profit of 170%. Haitong Securities also firmly optimistic about the future growth of consumer space. The reason is three, one is the national implementation "to promote domestic demand, restructuring" economic strategy, for the improvement of the people's livelihood and the construction of investment and system is not less than fixed assets and export areas, the effect will be gradually released; second, the Chinese residents have a huge savings deposit of 24.6 trillion yuan, rely on stock to stimulate consumption has ample space, this with the United States " Depending on the characteristics of spot income consumption, it is evident that more than 80% of the new housing expenditure comes from saving, and the third is that the historic improvement of the livelihood environment will inspire the residents ' propensity to consume, abolish the agricultural tax, the transfer of land use rights, the reform of the income distribution system and the huge investment in social security, and China is historically entering "Era of universal security", these will fundamentally enhance the residents ' willingness to consume.　　Domestic consumption will enter a period of growth beyond the historical speed. Haitong Securities said the above 6 sectors are expected to gain the double benefit of valuation fixes and performance gains. In addition, the current valuation of the coal sector in all sectors at the 3rd low, with valuation advantages, and will benefit from inflation expectations.　　The price of crude oil will be adjusted after a sharp fall, which is expected to lead to a coal stock market.　　Related stocks China Construction Bank (601939) credit steady growth company capital cost Advantage prominent, has the low deposit interest rate, the net spreads in the listed bank is in the leading position, anticipates the company income level will maintain the steady growth situation. CCB in the first quarter of this year's middle business growth of 10.43%, two quarter growth slightly higher.　　As the only bank with Engineering cost Consulting license, the construction agency's first-quarter consultancy fee for infrastructure projects increased significantly, becoming a new bright spot for the growth of the middle business in the 2009. GF Securities to fine-tune the construction bank's earnings forecasts, the CCB 2009 earnings per share is expected to 0.42 yuan, an increase of 4.39%.　　CCB has strong profitability and good risk control in state-owned large bank, and has advantages in the State Project loan.　　At present, the valuation level of CCB is the lowest in the listed state-owned banks, the GF Securities maintain its "buy" rating, the target price is 6.68 yuan/share, corresponding to 16 times times 2009 P/E, 2.94 times times 2009 years net rate. Citic Securities (600030) The price of shares fell in the space has been limited 2009 to 23 times times, the 2010 price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times times. Even under the extremely pessimistic assumption of the sale of Citic's equity stake in the Chinese fund, the company's share price fell more limited, after removing the transfer of equity earnings, the company 2009 and 2010, respectively, 24Times and 30 times times, compared to comparable companies still have a valuation advantage.　　CICC believes that, as long as the actual results are better than the pessimistic assumption, Citic Securities ' current share price-earnings ratio will continue to rise relative to the company's advantage, reaffirming its "recommended" investment rating for Citic Securities.　　Jidong Cement (000401) The first half of the net profit doubled [the company released the first half of the results of the announcement, is expected to achieve net profit of about 296 million yuan ~31400 million, year-on-year growth 50%~100%, basic earnings per share of about 0.24~0.26 yuan.　　During the reporting period, the company's new production lines have been put into operation, which brings about the expansion of production operation scale and the increase of sales volume. The company in the past three North strategy on the basis of adjustment for regional leadership, in the expansion of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the market advantage, and actively open up with investment space outside the market. At present, the main regional market is North China and northwest, which is influenced by investment-driven factors, and the prosperity of these regions is higher.　　Especially in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, where the profit level is better, the new production can be released more in the year.　　Citic said that the second half of the investment continue to promote, real estate recovery and the effect of peak season effects, the company will still maintain a good growth, maintain the forecast 2009-2011-year earnings per share of 0.73, 1.01 and 1.22 yuan, the target price of 18 yuan, "overweight" rating. Luzhou Old Cellar (000568) to open up new sales model companies firmly control the first quarter of the goods to stabilize the market price system, two quarter of sales improved, 5 June has been achieved year-on-year growth, the company's confidence in the second half of the consumer situation is more adequate, is actively stocking.　　Huaxi Securities as a result of the performance of brokerage business, plus the self-employed part of the profit, the first half of the net profit in 6~7 billion, the normal state of the year can reach more than 1 billion yuan of profits, the company is expected to contribute more than 0.2 yuan per share. The company's sales channels open up a joint-stock sector sales company model, the company is expected to reduce the cost rate, increase cash inflow, raise net interest rate. Although the consumption tax strict collection and management may not be avoided, but the company channel model innovation can reduce the ex-factory price, thereby reducing the tax base. The company now thinks it may increase taxes by 30 million or 40 million yuan, reducing earnings per share by about 0.03 yuan.　　After three years of equity incentive scheme approved, the year is expected to be implemented, the market has long awaited.　　China Merchants Securities to maintain a "strongly recommended" investment rating, is expected to 2009-2011 year earnings per share of 1.09 yuan, 1.19 yuan, 1.40 yuan.　　Wuliangye (000858) Asset injection gradually approaching the company is currently with Sichuan Yibin Wuliangye Group Co., Ltd. Planning joint venture to set up "Yibin Wuliangye Liquor Sales Limited Liability Company" Matters in order to completely resolve the company and Wuliangye Group import and export companies exist between the Wuliangye series of liquor sales, export-related transactions. This will likely thicken the performance of Wuliangye AG. If the listed company in the short term through the joint venture with the group to set up a subsidiary, and import and export companies intoThe newly established subsidiary, assuming the shareholding ratio of listed companies reaches 80%, Guotai is expected to increase the company's earnings per share in 2009 close to 0.1 Yuan, 2010 close to 0.2 yuan, the company's 2009-2010 performance forecast on the corresponding increase to 0.81, 1.03 yuan,　　To give the company 2009 30 times multiples, the target price to 24 yuan, after the return of the stock price has a certain increase in space, to increase the rating to overweight.　　Medium Coal Energy (601898) sales and marketing continued to good value of the company's domestic coal has ended the negative growth situation, achieved a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, the chain of improvement reached 20%. Shaanxi Coal Machine factory income into the company report, coal machine production value significantly increased, the company May coal production value has increased significantly, the output value of the single month has exceeded 1.4 billion yuan, compared with the same period in 2008 7 times times. The big increase comes from the merger of the Shanxi Coal Machine factory, the sales revenue into the report.　　Coal machine manufacturing accounted for the company's current sales share of more than 20%, and the stability of the gross profit margin around 18%~20%, can contribute to the company a certain profit.　　At the same time, the import and export price situation reversal, the company realizes the spot increment to play the vital role.　　Wanguo that continued good production and marketing data will be the catalyst for higher valuations, maintain overweight ratings, raise the 2009 earnings forecast to 0.64 yuan/share, the company's dynamic P/E ratio is lower than the average price of coal stocks, also lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 valuation level. For more wonderful financial articles, please login to the first financial network (www.Amoney.com.cn) statement: This copyright for the first exclusive financial management, if necessary reprint, please contact us. 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