Strong shocks await upward breakthrough 25 institutions this week's strategy

Internal further upward momentum weakening ⊙ national Yuan securities influence market trend of several factors, for the economy to improve we have to do a good job of recovery, there is still no change in the financial easing situation, especially the residents save money running into the market and the fund's surging distribution, the other blue chip valuations still have some room to rise. But we note that most stocks did not continue to rise last week, and it is harder for investors to grasp the changing style of the market. In terms of markets, markets have digested their differences through shocks after the introduction of economic data, and new factors will include U.S. stock movements, dollar movements and new policy stimuli. The underlying further upward momentum in the market is already weakening, and most investors are cautious after a bear market, which is not hard to see from the drop in the number of positions, and the shift in money from the concept hype to the valuation of the depressions makes the blue-chip sector or a dash. However, we think that as the blue chip back to the rational range of valuation, the lack of new momentum in the stock index will be limited further space, blue chips such as a rally may mean that the market will enter a period of high volatility, so we propose to seize the blue chip to the value of the average to close the rising opportunity　　Given the inconsistency in the rise of blue-chip varieties, robust investors can be configured with 50ETF and some Fengki with better performance to gain average returns, while coal, automobiles, software, pharmaceuticals and new energy sources can continue to pay attention. The risk of the price deviation is slightly greater than the opportunity ⊙ the Northeast Securities market in the process of innovation has a significant divergence of value, this phenomenon indicates that the market participants began to cautious. As the market continues to move higher, future investment risk may be slightly greater than opportunity, we believe that the market risk mainly from the following aspects: The economic recovery is still a tortuous road, the policy can be expected, the effect gradually weakened; A period of time in the future market may be dominated by shocks, the current market continues to face a 2700-2900-point pressure Zone, which was last year before the Olympic Games, a major consolidation area. The market will continue to focus on the 2,700-point pressure this week, and it is important to note that the setback in the rally often depends on the expected change.　　As for the future economic expectations, policy on the stock market attitude to change, there is the increase in financing behavior. Based on the limited upside space, the next week to shake the possibility of consolidation, the market will pay attention to low prices, restructuring, to fill up the plate.　　Therefore, this week we focus on: Xinxiang chemical Fiber, Australian technology, Hainan Airlines, Southern Airlines, Tiandi Source, Zhujiang Industrial, Jianghuai automobile. The optimistic outlook has been fully anticipated ⊙ National Gold Securities recent macro data transmission more positive signals, but from the perspective of the listed companies show that enterprises are under the pressure of greater profitability. In addition, some economic data also reflect the departure trend, such as fixed assets investment and value added, electricity generation and so on. The macroscopic and microscopic faces are showing divergence and enlargement, which makes us take a cautious attitude when we judge the current economic recovery.Will find more evidence of recovery. We think the current economic recovery is not going to be smooth sailing, and the fog has not completely dispersed. And the current a-share market has made full expectations of the optimistic outlook, so we still emphasize the judgment of rational valuation limit unchanged.　　In the configuration, it is recommended to focus on the upstream resources and the most downstream consumer products. Market multi-empty confrontation pattern will continue ⊙ Galaxy Securities recently in the market index frequency innovation High, most of the small and medium stock prices have been lower than the previous highs, indicating a decline in overall market activity, for many investors to make money more difficult; a series of macroeconomic data released last week were mixed, and overall, some of the components were slightly better than expected, But overall indicators are poor. Suggest that the economic recovery is slower than market expectations, which will increase the risk of market volatility. We believe that the market will continue to be more and more empty confrontation, the index repeated the process of stock volatility risk increased. Investors should continue to be wary of the risk of small and medium-sized stocks, which are more than 40 times times higher than their valuations, and shift their focus to lower-priced blue-chip stocks with a strong risk-resistant capability.　　Banks, securities, real estate, petroleum and petrochemical, coal, railway construction and other sectors worthy of continued attention. Blue-chip drive to accelerate the difficulty of the rise of the people's livelihood securities market, despite the increase in volatility, but did not destroy the overall trend of rebound, and blue-chip index unit to start to give the market greater expectations, the index breakthrough 3,000 points to form an accelerated attack posture is very likely. But with the April macro data released, the blue-chip-driven acceleration of the rally is difficult. Blue-chip rise in addition to the passive factors, the more important is the fundamentals rather than liquidity-driven. From an economic perspective, the fundamentals have improved, but can not expect too high, the economic environment and market demand has not significantly improved; from the monetary level, the central bank "short-term anti-deflation, long-term inflation-proof" more pressure, the cost of the policy may be higher, the possibility of fine-tuning liquidity is also increasing; from a market perspective, If management believes that the stock market is strong, it is likely to restore and increase the supply of shares, and the cumulative demand for distribution may change the current supply-demand relationship.　　If management is more optimistic about the economy than it is, it could be a huge recovery in liquidity, so that the resultant force of liquidity and fundamentals on the stock market may fall or even change direction. Fluctuation range is 2550-2700 points ⊙ Hunan Fortune Securities We continue to carefully look at the two-quarter market trend of the A-share, it is expected that the rest of the future will still likely continue to uplink.　　Prev Wednesday Close reported at more than 2,650, and there are four days to continue at 2,600 points above the closing, in this, we will prev two-quarter target from 2,700 points up to 2850-2950 point interval, medium-term support level of 2,300 points. This week the market will still have to continue to collate requirements to further digest the 2566-2952-point interval of the hold-up chips, prev close fluctuation range of 2550-2700 points. This week's market hot spots for the concept of venture, finance, real estate, new energy toand regional revitalization stocks.　　The focus of this week's market is government policy and offshore stock market movements. Continue to operate near the rebound on the rail ⊙ state-sheng Securities since the 2400 high index continuously rise, and the volume of the trend is not convergence, whether the volume, turnover or exchange rate did not effectively exceed the level of 2,400 points, such a departure is a key factor in the future of the market. But at present the market confidence is sufficient, the fund is abundant, the policy surface is strong support, the hot spot continues to appear, the investor still more rational, the index stock rises small and so on, these are the reason which the market continues upwards. Of course, there is a certain valuation risk in the current market when the performance of listed companies has not been effectively improved.　　The fundamentals will be more calm, but the investor psychological struggle will be more intense, the market is expected to continue to rebound in the vicinity of the rail operation, the higher the probability of shock. There are some institutional opportunities in the market, mainly in relation to regional reform and economic stimulus-related stocks, new industry revitalization policies to support stocks, last year's four quarter and the first quarter of this year's growth and possible future growth of stocks, the long-term consolidation of stocks near the year line.　　Industry opportunity to choose medicine, electricity, steel, biochemistry and so on. Configuration turn to certainty higher industry ⊙ CICC April macro data show that China's economy is showing obvious external cooling heat characteristics, the economy in the government's huge infrastructure investment and "real estate, car, home appliances" consumption stimulus policy has been the first to build a bottom. At the same time, we also note that as demand for external-led terminals continues to slump and manufacturing overcapacity is under pressure, although many industries since the beginning of a recovery in sales growth, but mainly due to the end of last year, the phenomenon caused by inventory, the price does not rise and fall makes it difficult to make profits more than expected potential,　　Thus, investment from the private sector of the real economy is difficult to recover significantly in the short term. The future of macro fundamentals is uncertain, but if the government's determination and inertia to stimulate economic policy is taken into account, especially if government investment-led fiscal policy is unsustainable, stimulating domestic demand, represented by sectors such as real estate and automobiles, will be a means for governments to rely on. and energy, commodities, traditional manufacturing industries, such as the lack of terminal demand and excess capacity pressure, profitability is not a trend reversal, and the ability to continue to win the market.　　As a result, industry allocation should be diverted from early-cycle varieties that benefit from early recovery expectations to more deterministic real estate, automobiles and related upstream and downstream plates, such as steel, cement, and home appliances. Bubble stage investment around the four main line ⊙ the Great Wall securities market to break through the 2,700-point limit is likely to enter the bubble stage, and in the earlier period to promote the stock market rise of the three main power (policy, liquidity, economic side) without fundamental changes in the premise, the bubble will remain for some time. Combined with our judgment on the future evolution of the stock market into the bubble, later investment can be around four main lines: 1. A cyclical industry with relatively safe valuations, including finance, coal, chemicals, building materials,and steel industry. 2. Continue to focus on investment-driven beneficiary industries, including building materials, steel, and machinery, which are also part of the cyclical cycle of relatively safe valuations. 3. Recent steel prices, some chemical products prices, agricultural prices, shipping prices have risen, but this kind of plate is not big, late should pay close attention to. These plates include steel, petrochemicals, agricultural plates, and shipping plates. 4. To pay due attention to the topic of regional plate opportunities, such as Shanghai, Fujian, and Shenzhen. [Page] need to adjust but limited in the short term ⊙ Central Plains securities market in the upward process of accumulation of risks in the gradual increase in the short term may need to adjust and consolidate.　　However, we think that the overall adjustment of a shares will not be too large, if there is a continuous contraction of the stock adjustment, investors should be bold to buy, short-term should have a good profit. In response to the current favourable liquidity environment of the A-share market, in the new hypothesis, we take 6.5% ERP corresponds to the 20.26 times multiples of all a-share companies in 2009, indicating that the current a-share price ratio has already reflected the positive changes brought about by liquidity; for a more speculative a-share market, liquidity-driven valuations may be higher.　　Under the current overall valuation reasonable premise, this means that if the financial easing situation in the future for some time to continue to maintain, a shares still have room to rise. APRIL macro-data show that the overall economy is still the macro-thermal micro-cold pattern, and the recent rapid development of the world-wide epidemic situation, the worsening conditions of the epidemic will undoubtedly pose a potential threat to economic recovery. We configure the medical unit directly related to the epidemic, and propose to avoid related industries which are unfavorable to the development of the epidemic.　　In addition, highways, food drinks and banks with a comparative advantage in valuations can be configured. There is no obvious change in market risk preference ⊙ Everbright Securities last week led the pattern began to stop, market hot spots again tend to scattered, leading the industry and the concept plate is not outstanding.　　But the board of the SME board rose more than the Shanghai 50 Index, ST and other plate active, so we judge the market risk appetite has not changed significantly. In the short term, we still maintain the configuration of banking, retail department, medicine, food and beverage industry, related stocks include: Suning appliance, Wangfujing, Guangzhou friendship, Xinhua department store, Kang Yuan Pharmaceutical, jinling Pharmaceutical, tasly, Donga donkey-hide gelatin, Tsingtao beer, yanjing beer, double sinks development. Continue to pay attention to "Hercynian" related beneficial stock.　　We maintain the previous medium-term configuration structure, recommend military, asset restructuring, such as the expected theme of stocks, real estate, non-ferrous Metals, coal, shipping, automotive, household appliances, non-bank financial and other strong cycle of high beta varieties. The current valuation status is not important. ⊙ China Merchants Securities for the year economic rebound or recovery trend is basically a consensus, the difference is whether the valuation has fully reflected the future of the more optimistic economic expectations. When the market picks up, it does usually overestimate earnings or underestimate risk, but the crux of the problem is that valuations are not important, and an overvalued market can continue to overestimate or become moreOvervalued。　　The most important question is what is the tipping point for ending the overvaluation of the market, and we think there is likely to be room for market valuations to rise before the expected two dip in the economy or the expected liquidity (we stick to the currency gap as a liquidity indicator). Continue to optimistic about the economic cycle of the leading industry real estate vehicle and its industrial diffusion effect beneficiaries: Real estate, automobiles, finance, home appliances, coal, building materials, non-ferrous and so on. For banking stocks, with the inflection point of the price index from deflation to moderate inflation, banks will have a turning point in the interest rate, and the decline in deposit growth is expected to come and ease the pressure on the bank's costs; the investment in the industry has seen a steady rebound, and according to the logic of the industrial chain, the steel industry is expected to step into the bottom-up process.　　In the company recommended by industry researchers this week, we propose to focus on: alcoholic beverages, Chinese ocean, Great Asia Technology, Oct, etc. will continue to run above the line of the year ⊙ National Sea securities with the weight of half of the bank shares in the fall, last week, the market into a concussion finishing, but the dominant characteristics of the adjustment is still more obvious. The policy "strong" underpins the stock market "strength", as Premier Wen Jiabao said, "The policy of coping with the financial crisis is far more than 4 trillion". Indeed, the recent policy positive continuous, so that the market has been hot, and effectively maintain the market sentiment.　　We believe that in the context of the financial crisis, management has recognized the importance of stock market wealth effect to restore the financing function of the stock market, especially to stimulate the consumption function, so management has added to the current stock market care. From a policy perspective, although the recent trend of the market may be more repeated, but the Shanghai Composite index is still expected to be in the line as the year of the watershed of the cattle bear.　　This week, the short-term treasure around the "boom warmer, recapitalisation, valuation advantages," the four main lines of stock selection, this week, the short-term portfolio of the new tournament shares, the Shen, St build machine, China Shenhua. Caution still have a spike action appears ⊙ GF Securities Market, the gap has been quite obvious, the markets are gradually showing weakness. At present, only because of several indicators of varieties and plates are still in the rising stage, the replenishment of the market has not finished, which will make it difficult to immediately appear in the short-term callback. However, it is important to note that once those filling up varieties fill the "Price depression", if the market can not continue to tap a strong appeal, the market continues to be difficult to sustain.　　After all, the current overall valuation level has not been low, and the most basic factors supporting the stock price-listed companies are difficult to improve business performance, has been relying on storytelling is not a long-term solution. Comprehensive judgment, this week, the market still has a surge action, but can maintain a strong continuous rally needs to play a question mark. Special emphasis is the need to closely observe the changes in the disc, if the stock performance is not harmonious, it should be the spirit of "playing to win on the fight, not win and go" strategy, as far as possible, "no loss of money." And once found that even the action is not, you should be aware of the market may appear adjustments. But for now, even if the market is hesitant, the stock market will continue. Investment strategy: Gradually control the position, short-term access strongVarieties。 The rebound in confidence is not firm. ⊙ Zhejiang Business stock index shocks intensified, although there are continuous macro and regional revitalization policies to promote the stock market, but including swine flu cases in the mainland of the successive diagnosis, the foundation of a shaky economic recovery and capital market irregularities and the concentration of illegal disclosure and other factors,　　are also impacting market confidence.　　The April macroeconomic data, the overall view of the real economic data and market optimism there is a certain gap between the optimistic expectations of the stock market to stride in Europe and the United States economic recovery process, this situation needs a revision process. As the Government continues to maintain policy support, rapid investment growth will continue. In particular, the start-up of local investment and the revival of private investment will provide a stronger impetus for investment.　　From the direction of industry support reflected by government stimulus investment policy, real estate, 3G, nuclear high-based, large aircraft, gene technology, biomedicine, major disease vaccine, nuclear power technology and basic equipment will be the important industries to be paid attention to in the future. Had been buried cautiously expected to rise foreshadowing ⊙ the policy optimism is expected to be stronger once the ratio of fixed assets is lowered and Wen Jiabao's "5.8" speech. At the same time, recent data show a further increase in domestic and foreign macroeconomic signs of recovery, as well as investor expectations of corporate earnings and the decline in risk premiums.　　Under the influence of these factors, we have not seen the trend from optimistic anticipation to optimistic expectation and cautious expectation. At the same time, we believe that the policy tone has not changed: neither increase the stimulus to stimulate the economy nor weaken the strength of the existing policy, but the market for the interpretation of the policy itself appears to be strong judgments. The subtle changes in the market's expectations of policy are likely to lay the groundwork for cautious expectations. On the other hand, fundamentals are still shaky, especially in the recovery process of overseas economies.　　During this period, the lower-than-expected macro-data could also be a foreshadowing of prudent expectations. A strong adjustment at 2600-2900 o ' Day congenial days of the market in a relatively large pressure area, that is 2600-2900 points, which fell last year when a rebound position.　　Each time to the early transactions in the dense area will have shocks, means that the market in this area will be a long time a strong oscillation adjustment. Last year when we judged the price this year was based on a 10% per cent fall in performance this year, overall performance was forecast growth in the current market. Our analyst tracking Company's overall forecast was a growth of 13%, with market consensus expected to grow by 16%. If this expectation is further strengthened, there may be room for improvement. In accordance with the increase of 15%, the market will be around 3,000 points. In this position, we see that many organizations are very different, some funds also maintain a very positive attitude, and some funds at 2,500 to lighten.　　There are differences, suggesting that markets are often not risky. We are reminded that the factors that create stress in the rising orbit are often policy-likeThe policy's attitude towards the stock market is turning negative and even depressing. Another factor is the increase in financing behavior, especially the large-cap stocks of IPOs, refinancing, etc., will bring about the negative impact of expansion, often lead to relatively big adjustment. Our judgment is that the gem will be launched after the launch of a larger IPO, the current management should focus on the gem of the timely and smooth launch. [Page] or will produce a hybrid foam ⊙ the recent data show positive changes in emerging market consumption. In addition to China, Brazil, India, Indonesia and other countries, the strong recovery of private consumption, advanced economies, consumer confidence is also rising; from the production cycle point of view, the rise in corporate shipments and inventory decline to reduce production pressure. As global manufacturing inventories are slowly slowing down, the rate of decline in industrial production will slow in the coming months; in the financial environment, the US and eurozone, the most heavily credit crunch, have seen marginal improvements; now that the developed world's personal income, consumption, industrial output and credit are still in a downward path, We believe that the restoration of the US household sector balance sheet is a long-term process, and that the savings rate and consumption as a percentage of GDP return to a more normal level cannot be achieved overnight.　　We continue to maintain the view that external demand should be revived before the end of the year. The A-share market will produce a hybrid bubble: The initial performance was a rise in valuations and a double boost in valuations and profits in the middle and late stages.　　In this context, the proposed main configuration has a profit advantage of the industry, the industry configuration sequence for real estate, coal, finance, consumption. Amplitude increase is still expected to continue the rally ⊙ Citic Investment published a series of important macroeconomic data at home and abroad last week, which shows that although China's economy has gradually stepped out of the trough, the macroeconomic to achieve a "V-shaped" reversal is only a small probability event. The middle-level rebound from last November has gone into sensitive areas, and there is a lack of justification for both the sharp rise and the sharp fall in the current spot.　　However, with ample liquidity and no change in the economy to good expectations, low valuations, relatively small gains in the broader blue-chip market is still expected to be favored by investors. The market has been showing signs of weakness after last week's record, combined with good and bad economic data at home and abroad, which has subsided earlier optimism about a rapid economic recovery. However, we believe that the future market is still expected to continue the rally, but the scope of shocks will increase.　　We suggest that investors continue to pay attention to the financial, real estate, steel as the representative of the broad blue chip and petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, coal as the representative of the resources industry. To the real estate bank steel still bullish on the joint securities although we hope the stock market correction is a bit deeper, but may not be able to achieve the goal. In spite of panic, the people who sell stocks are not blind or stupid, so the obvious environmental change should be seen. We do not anticipate how the market will go in the future. The total size of the positions can be between 60% and 90%, depending on the situation. thanThe trouble is that those who are only precipice at 2,500 points, any adjustment over 80 points is tantamount to picking heart cut meat.　　As a disadvantaged group, when will be gripped.　　Regardless of the market, we are still optimistic about the real estate Bank steel, relatively speaking, coal stocks in the short term may be more powerful, non-ferrous metals only zinc can be sure that the optimistic, other varieties may be a little later. The inflection point is not up to the point. The current market rally of Changjiang Securities is not based on the expectation of the improvement of the performance of listed companies, but on the result that the release of rigid demand leads to the acceleration of inventory. But the prerequisite for the release of rigid demand is the price falls, if the price continues to rebound, then the future of rigid demand is still a big question, and whether the investment demand can be up also need further observation data.　　So we are not particularly optimistic about the market expectations after the two quarter, the main reason is that after the release of rigid demand is not necessarily able to immediately follow the investment needs, the middle will cause the economy two times dip. Based on the understanding of the economic data released last week, we believe that the fastest rally in the stock market has passed, and that the future is adjusted or choppy, and we are confident that it will be structural.　　But recent shocks are likely to be higher because the market has not yet reached an inflection point, but the forecast for the two quarter has not changed. Valuation policy game under the strong shocks ⊙ Bohai Securities Comprehensive view, 2,600 points after the market is mainly under the pressure of valuation, and support the rebound of the macro, liquidity and policy factors have not changed, which also compressed the depth of the adjustment of the index, especially the start-up of blue-chip investors have added confidence.　　Therefore, we believe that this week the market will be in the valuation pressure and fundamental support of the common game out of the strong shock market. Hot spots, we think that the blue-chip group has gradually taken over the market rebound baton, the market style has begun to change. It is recommended that investors continue to focus on the banks, real estate and car sectors benefiting from the upturn, while focusing on the trading opportunities offered by the second replenishment of stocks to the steel sector, as well as the trading opportunities available to the pharmaceutical sector by the domestic swine flu pandemic.　　Attention to the opportunity should also focus on risk prevention, that is, as the blue-chip market gradually started, the previous increase in excessive and expected to dim the risk of the stock is gradually increased, investors should keep a clear understanding. Investment direction lost to adjustment inducement ⊙ the different influence of the policy adjustment of Shanghai Securities on the related industries is the important reason of the turbulence pattern in the last week.　　The liquidity-rich environment will continue to be conducive to market development, the recovery is not expected to change the fundamental changes in the market style of success is more likely, but to pay attention to the style of the conversion process of the volatility caused by the market shock risk. Because there is no new positive stimulus, the city of the fear of heights "germination." The market in the vicinity of the Shanghai Composite Index 2,600 points is looking for new reasons for new trends, and the contradiction between valuation pressures and liquidity adequacy is becoming a regional shockThe two-way binding force, the group's cautious mentality will continue to solidify the trend characteristics of high regional market shocks.　　But this week's short-term focus on cumulative adjustment pressures should be taken against them.　　At present, the short-term loss of investment direction may become an important incentive for short-term adjustment of the market, this week's investment strategy should be biased towards defense, industry configuration focus on auto parts, real estate and wine industry. The factors that underpin the rise are fading. ⊙ Germany State Securities the current market although maintain strong, but last week in Shanghai and Shenzhen, the contraction of stagnation indicates that short-term index may appear collation. And we insist that the fundamentals to support the continued rise of the market factors gradually disappear, the market strength stems from funds and policies vigorously support. Once the market appears obvious bad, the market adjustment time and space may exceed people's expectations. As a result, investors still need to keep a wary eye on the index, especially since last week's decline was much lower and the contraction was higher. We need to maintain a medium-and micro-enterprise profits continue to decline judgment, so even if the large blue chip to maintain a certain strength, but the industry seriously differentiated structural risk will still be released.　　Continue to advise attention to the market, especially the financial real estate opportunities, while maintaining appropriate positions to prevent the risk of adjustment. Lack of significant upward or downward power ⊙ Haitong Securities The current market of many empty forces are basically in equilibrium state, the reason why the market is now the basic balance of power is: the macroeconomic fundamentals are still in the carries situation, the company's difficult operation and the warmth of the macro-policy will still coexist in the short term; as far as the stock market is concerned, since 1664, The rising rhythm and structure are more rational. The Big bear market that has just passed is still fresh in the minds of investors, and the markets have been running with risk warnings. Therefore, there is no bubble accumulation in the current market, just because of the index drive and the decline of corporate profits, the valuation level rises to a reasonable limit; The current national macro-policy focus is to actively promote regional development and industrial revitalization, with the economic slowdown of the hard struggle, for the current no significant bubble in the securities market Therefore the market movement basically is in the small step slow state.　　Since there is no big bubble, there is also a lack of justification for substantial adjustments. The next 5 June's macroeconomic and market operations are critical, with the two-quarter macro data and the semi-annual results of the firm determining whether the real economy is on the rebound, and whether the bull base is solid. In the current environment, the market lacks significant upward or downward momentum. In the short term, it is expected to continue to maintain a light and shrinking pattern. Scattered hot spots and short-term funding from the sidelines to make the stock index with horizontal consolidation rationale, to the relevant important macro-micro situation clear once again choose the direction of progress.