Study on China-Japan-Korea FTA is difficult to negotiate

Economic Herald reporter Zhou Xiaoyan the third meeting of leaders of China, Japan and South Korea.　　29th, the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea adopted the "2020 Sino-Japan-ROK cooperation Outlook", clearly will be in South Korea next year to establish a three-country cooperation secretariat to share relevant information and technology to jointly respond to natural disasters, the three countries will also establish a mechanism for defense dialogue. The most important is the China-Japan-South Korea FTA study speed. According to the document, the three countries pledged to work to complete the China-Japan-ROK FTA Joint study 2012 years ago, and strive to complete the negotiations on the investment agreement. 29th, Fan Zhenhong, director of the International Economic Research Institute of Shandong Academy of Social Sciences, who was interviewed by the Economic Herald, said, "the determination of the three countries to build a free trade area has been suspended and the Sino-Japanese South Korea FTA has finally ushered in a substantial breakthrough." But at the same time he was worried, "the research is speeding up and negotiations are difficult." "Comparative advantage China is Korea's largest trading partner, China is Japan's second largest trading partner, Japan is South Korea's second largest trading partner, with the economic ties between the three countries increasingly close," free trade zone is only a matter of time. "If a free-trade zone is built, it would be beneficial to the three countries.　　Fan Zhenhong Analysis, whether it is natural resources, labor or knowledge resources, the three countries have obvious comparative advantages and differences, can achieve trade altogether win.　　In addition, the three industries have different advantages, there is no obvious competition relation in commodity trade ——— Japan and South Korea in the capital and technology-intensive industries have obvious competitive advantage, while China's competitive advantage is still concentrated on resources or labor-intensive products, once the FTA, relying on comparative advantages and industrial advantages to achieve win-win will be more convenient. Out of the three categories, the three countries must accelerate the completion of the FTA. "Three countries have signed bilateral free trade agreements with a number of countries, and if free trade between the three nations has been absent, comparative advantage will not be played."　　"Fan Zhenhong said.　　There is still a "stumbling block" to the negotiations. Fan Zhenhong that the joint study of China-Japan-ROK FTA should be completed on schedule, but the most practical negotiation stage is still not optimistic, "the three countries ' economic development level and structure are different, the negotiation process is doomed to be more complex." China belongs to developing country, Japan is developed country, South Korea is newly industrialized country, the development level gap is too big, the implementation of liberalized trade between countries can achieve comparative advantages, but it will inevitably impact on related industries.　　Specific to an industry, Fan Zhenhong that the agricultural sector is likely to become a "stumbling block" in the negotiations.　　According to Fan Zhenhong, in Japan, farmers are the largest group to support the LDP, and Japan's limited arable land, the LDP's long-term policy is to protect agriculture, restrict free trade, and South Korea, the problem is more serious, "no two" concept of the people, many foreign goods, especially agricultural products "shut out". There are precedents to follow. In June 2007, after 10 months of lengthy negotiations, the two sides reached a free trade agreement, South Korea under the agreement to U.S. beef to open the domestic market, immediately aroused the strong dissatisfaction of farmersand cause social unrest.　　South Korea's parliament subsequently vetoed the FTA, South Korea and the United States since the trade zone "abortion." "If Japan and South Korea have been unwilling to open the agricultural market, the comparative advantage of Chinese agricultural products will not be played." If China, Japan and South Korea cannot reach a consensus on agricultural issues, it will be a bottleneck in the establishment of a free trade area.　　Fan Zhenhong said that only three parties make reasonable concessions, it is possible to successfully cross this "Kan." South Korea is more "urgent" to mention political factors. Although there are no sharp political and security contradictions between China, Japan and Korea, because of the problems left over by history, the political mutual trust between the three countries is not strong enough, which has also become a barrier to free trade cooperation between the three countries, Fan Zhenhong said. In fact, South Korea is clearly more "urgent" in establishing a FTA. According to Fan Zhenhong, the Korean media are beginning to pay attention to Taiwan's investment in mainland China, "Taiwan enterprises in the mainland investment and industrial fever, South Korea began to worry about their share, which shows that South Korea has always attached great importance to the Chinese market is also very dependent." "In this sense, Fan Zhenhong predicted that China and South Korea FTA may have to be built before the China-Japan-South Korea FTA," after all, bilateral negotiations are much easier than multilateral negotiations, bilateral cooperation once successful, the multilateral negotiations also form a model. ”