The industry says imports will remain buoyant in the next few months

September 10 Morning News, the General administration of customs 10th released figures show that the month of August, China's export growth of 34.4%, import growth of 35.2%.　　Industry insiders said that imports will remain buoyant in the coming months, and exports remain uncertain, or further down. Customs statistics show that August China's import and export value of 258.57 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 34.7%.　　Exports of 139.3 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 34.4%, slowed 3.7% from last month; Imports 119.27 billion U.S. dollars, grew 35.2%, Rose 12.5% last month, with a trade surplus of 20.03 billion dollars a month, down 30.4% from last month. Previous market-expected surveys showed an expected average of 26.8% per cent growth in gross domestic product in August, up from 22.7% per cent in the actual value of July. The expected maximum value is 55.2%, the lowest value is 17.8%, and the median is 25%. The annual growth rate of exports in August averaged 32.6%, with a median of 34%, and a decrease of 38.1% per cent in July.　　The maximum value is 40%, and the lowest value is 20%. Zuo, managing director and Chief economist at Galaxy Securities, said the increase in import growth and the slowdown in export growth were largely in line with expectations. Export growth is related to the external demand market, the European recovery in the two quarter of this year is uncertain, but it is not expected to have an impact on the three-quarter exports due to short-term orders in the three quarter, but there is no job growth in the United States and the European subprime crisis or the introduction of a new stimulus package that can effectively boost consumption,　　Whether the seasonal factors of Christmas will continue to drive imports requires further observation, so China's exports are still fraught with uncertainty in the four quarter. For imports, a further increase in import growth is already apparent in the early PMI data, stemming from a sharp increase in new orders and a reflection that domestic demand is not as weak as expected.　　This is directly related to the Chinese Government's recent policy of promoting the port, and more High-tech imports will increase. "It is certain that this year's import and export situation is certainly better than last year, the surplus growth will contribute to economic growth of about 0.5%." Zuo said, "China is trying to increase imports, the Ministry of Commerce is actively promoting to change the surplus is too big situation." And the United States is also studying the relaxation of China's High-tech products, if both sides have sincerity and determination, I believe that the surplus between the two countries will be further narrowed, trade friction industry will be further reduced. Wang Xiaoquan, a researcher at the National Administration Institute's decision-making consulting department, said that export growth remained relatively strong from the data, but the surplus was unlikely to widen, with a surplus of 150 billion to 160 billion a year. Since next year is the first year of the "Twelve-Five" plan, investment growth is expected to be faster, which will further boost import growth, and exports are not expected to grow too high by the international impact.　　In the remaining months of the year, the growth rate of imports and exports will fall by about 10% per cent, influenced by last year's base. Wang Xiaoquan suggested that the government should further control the export of the two investment industries and reduce the general trade productsTax rebate subsidy. "In the current situation, we should sacrifice export growth to seize the opportunity to adjust the structure, domestic demand and investment still support GDP to maintain a healthy level."　　"Wang Xiaoquan said. Jian Fang, an analyst at Citic Securities, said the excess expectations of imports reflected a pick-up in domestic demand, consistent with the benchmark PMI. Export growth is mainly affected by the fiscal tightening effect in Europe and the United States, the annual export growth rate is expected to be 28%. Imports are expected to remain in good shape, influenced by the base effect and the lag effect of order production. The decline in domestic demand could be improved within the expected time. Import growth is expected to grow at 32% this year, with a full-year surplus of about 190 billion per cent last year. On the structure of imports, foreign control of relaxed High-tech products and domestic demand-related products may increase. (Snow ting from Beijing)