To shock or intensify expectations of investment-driven action

CITIC Securities Research Department Strategy Group in the "guarantee eight" success and macro-economic overall upward premise, we still insist that the stock market continues to shock upward view.　　In the short term, too much, high valuations may bring greater adjustment pressure on the market, but the fund is still well-off, policy incentives continue to be introduced to the market will constitute a support, so the situation will be more obvious short-term shocks. Operation strategy, our "Cycle + finance" industry configuration ideas have not changed, but the connotation of the cycle has been increasing. The process of recovery of manufactured goods is the focus of our next stage of concern, and the early-growing investments may still have opportunities, especially given the combination of policy stimulus and downstream demand, which will bolster current valuations.　　In addition, the paper and steel industry, where costs are falling and prices are rising, may have the opportunity to advise investors. Exports are still hovering at the bottom, the return of funds to hedge demand rebound in April of exports repeated, year-on-year decline again widened. In the light of our earlier research in Zhejiang, local businesses and government departments generally believe that the panic stage caused by the sharp decline in exports is over, but the actual orders for the next two months are still not optimistic. At present, enterprises receive more orders for short orders, small orders, the real demand for overseas enterprises recovery did not see. However, the results show that the April export growth rate is worse than the March reason is also various, such as export enterprises in order to prevent the April freight rate increase caused by March export concentrated release, April month in the eastern main port area fog influence exports, last year April export base higher. By contrast, the April retail data released by the United States last week also showed downward repetition, below market expectations, which also poses pressure on our exports.　　For now, exports have been through the worst of times, but the short term may still linger at the bottom. The current level of capital is still ample, interest rates remain low and credit conditions are more relaxed, but the recent rebound in demand for hedge funds is a sign of concern. Last week's bid for the country to open 10-year floating-rate financial debt was pursued by the market, the subscription rate of more than 4 times times, 55 basis points of the bid spreads are also lower than the market forecast of 65-75 of the spreads level. The hallmark of this bond breed is that once you enter the interest rate hike cycle, you can enjoy the benefits of rising yields.　　There is no better profit opportunity for floating-rate bonds, and more money as a defensive disposition, but the rebound in demand for safe havens is a concern. The pull of investment is expected to appear in the logic of the traditional investment clock, the economic recovery phase, the optional consumer goods often precede the industrial products and raw materials recovery, demand driven from downstream to upstream conduction.　　But after the financial crisis, the strong fiscal stimulus, represented by the Chinese government with "4 trillion" investment, has spurred demand for investment in building materials, machinery, and disrupted investment clocks, which are guided by traditional interest rates and inflation cycles, which are among the first to be shown in the rally of relevant investment stocks in the A-share market. But so far, the investment-related sectors have accumulated big gains, and continued to rise needs performance support. Fixed funds in recent monthsProduction and investment growth even more than expected, which will be upstream of building materials, steel and other industries to play a role, and the government announced the reduction of capital ratio of fixed assets investment in the provisions will also accelerate the strength of investment construction. In addition, real estate, automobiles and other optional consumer goods, will increase the willingness of enterprises to increase the number of new start, will increase the demand for upstream products.　　Citic Building industry analysts have also recently raised earnings forecasts, given the combination of policy stimulus and downstream selling.　　Policy frequency of market formation to support the recent policy, not only related to biological, mechanical, agricultural and other industry policies, but also Shanghai "double Center", Hercynian and Shenzhen comprehensive supporting areas of the regional policy, as well as the decentralization of foreign exchange approval, the establishment of consumer finance companies and other institutional reform policies. We believe that in the future the government will introduce more policies to promote consumption. The CBRC's pilot of a consumer finance company should be an important step in encouraging credit consumption. While countries such as Europe and the US are still in the process of deleveraging, countries that do not prevent China from having such a high savings rate continue to move towards a lever-adding process.　　Moreover, in China, excluding home mortgage loans, the proportion of consumer credit is still very small, through credit to stimulate consumption of space is very large. In addition, the policy-stimulated regional thematic investment opportunities will become the focus of sustained market attention. After the Shanghai Two center construction, the Hercynian region and so on the regional policy, recently has the news to say that Shenzhen may be after Shanghai Pudong, the Binhai New area, the Sichuan and Chongqing region, Wuhan after another comprehensive reform supplementary experimental area.　　Compared with other regions, Shenzhen has been the forefront of reform and opening up, has been a strong economic vitality, so the bright spot in Shenzhen is two: first, the interaction between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, the second is to deepen the reform of the experiment often we propose to pay attention to Shenzhen comprehensive reform of the experimental zone may be brought to Focusing on the four investment opportunities based on the overall judgment of the change of style in the market shocks, we propose to gradually increase the allocation weights of large stocks such as banks and petrochemical industries, and to look after the investment opportunities of real estate stocks, joint-stock banks, automobiles, investment goods and mining stocks.　　And the latest economic operation and industry data remind us to pay attention to iron and steel, paper, brokerage and other industries investment opportunities, the proposal focused on the stock portfolio is too stainless steel, Bo Hui paper, Xiamen Tungsten Industry, Vanke A, Haitong Securities, conch Cement.　　First, the key recommendation of the results may be stable rebound in steel, paper industry investment opportunities. The 2-3 quarter of each year is the peak of steel demand. Although under the influence of various factors, this year's peak season, but from the latest steel price and social inventory changes, the southern rainy season before the arrival of 5-June is likely to be a sustained rebound in the steel market, while the second half with the further macroeconomic recovery and the end of the rainy season, the steel industry's operating environment will be further improved. In addition, the Government limited production and capacity compression will also promote the gradual relief of the industry's supply pressure, and thus accelerate the industry's performance recovery. This week, some mainstream manufacturers of white cardboard and coated paper began to raise prices, and Citic papermaking industry analysts believe that falling raw material costs and a rebound in prices will pushTons of paper gross profit margin, sales monthly recovery will also promote the performance of the main listed companies to rebound, in this context, we recommend that the price sensitivity of higher paper-making listed companies.　　Second, it is recommended to face the favorable policy and valuation advantages of brokerage stocks investment opportunities. We believe that in the current market conditions, securities brokerage unit should focus on: first of all, from the business data, the average daily trading volume maintained at a high level will guarantee the stability of the listed company's earnings, which is similar to the logic that we pushed the car and real estate stocks in the previous period; IPO restart and the launch of the gem although may be on the short-term market upward formation must be suppressed, but it is a real positive for brokerage stocks.　　And in the whole brokerage plate, it is recommended to focus on the investment opportunities of large brokerages, in the low valuation level and obvious competitive advantage, the above companies can more fully enjoy the policy positive, and has a certain defensive value.　　The third is to continue to focus on investment and commodity stocks, which may exceed expectations. We still think that the stimulus of the policy and the arrival of the demand season will push forward the performance of the relevant stocks, CITIC building materials industry analysts will be in the near future to improve the cement-related listed companies earnings forecasts. In the follow-up real estate sales gradually to the real estate business to carry, and the real estate development investment will also gradually rebound in the background, the above-mentioned industry performance exceeding the expected signal will become more and more clear, will also give birth to the corresponding investment opportunities.　　In addition, we insist that the gradual bottoming out of the global economy will provide strong demand support for commodity prices, and that the continued global liquidity boom will also push up commodity prices, and that some stocks that benefit from a rebound in commodity prices and a new energy concept are particularly noteworthy.　　Four is to continue to optimistic about the investment opportunities of real estate, banks and auto stocks. The continued hot sales, developers "inventory" of the decline and financial pressure relief, the land market is poised to be issued, will promote the real estate industry share prices and performance of the super expected performance, which is the main reason we continue to recommend property stocks. In addition, the market style of the conversion trend on the bank stocks constitute a long-term positive, we believe that the return of the capital market at the bottom-driven spreads will continue to benefit the bank, and thus bring the corresponding investment opportunities. Automotive is our continuing concern and recommendation of the optional consumer goods industry, CITIC Auto industry analysts believe that, as domestic demand improved beyond expectations, in April, on the basis of year-on-year growth in car sales of 25%, May car sales will remain at about 30% year-on-year growth, and the annual auto market sales growth is expected to reach about 18%, This will provide a strong support for the continuation of the auto plate market.