Viewing investors ' mentality from the "A-Shares" search volume

About the future trend of a-share market, the current domestic investor mentality there are two kinds.　　Some are relatively pessimistic: they believe that the stock market has risen significantly beyond the economic fundamentals, that the bubbles are growing, that the stock market should stabilize for a while or a small drop in the current level to avoid a hard landing in the future, and that some are relatively optimistic. These two kinds of mentality of the game, will likely determine the later a-share market upward or downward trend. In view of this, analysts are shifting their focus to the most elusive indicator of market trends: sentiment in market investors.　　We use Google Trend tools to check the domestic users of some popular words search frequency, and then speculate on the current investment mentality of domestic investors. In the use of Google's trend tool to track the "A Shares" in the Simplified Chinese text in google search engine was searched for the number of times, we are surprised to find a "a-share" search volume pulse-type rise, often accompanied by the rise of a-share market. We have counted Google's weekly search results since January 2004, and the data show that the results of the "A-share" search resulted in a pulsing rise in May 2006, March 2007, June 2007, September 2007 and February 2009, This shows that more investors at this stage are searching through Google for a-share market investment information. Perhaps more to the point is that at this time the A-share market has aroused investor interest, if this growing interest in combination with the prevailing macro, market and other factors, may produce a good expectation. In this expectation, the late investors ' investment behavior changes, the reflection on the stock market may be the market stage strength.　　And it turns out that when the search volume presents this kind of pulse, the A-share market has risen in varying degrees after the preceding months. In addition, comparing the Shanghai Composite Index with the "A-share" search, we can see that the different thinking of the bull bear market will lead to a divergence between the two. In the bull market, the trend of online search trends led the stock market trend for 3-6 months. For example, at the end of June 2007, we found that the "A-share" search volume had peaked, while the Shanghai Composite Index peaked in the middle of October in 2007, lagging about 3.5 months.　　In contrast, after 2008 years of bear-market thinking, the "A-share" search volume began to rebound in early February 2009, and the Shanghai Composite Index has already bottomed out in November 2008, the trend of online search trends are lagging behind the stock market trend is about 3 months. Recently, we found that the "A-share" search volume is relatively smooth weekly, there is no big fluctuations. This shows that the current market mentality of investors is relatively stable, or different investors on the market game mentality at this stage has achieved a temporary balance. We think there are two reasons: 1 as a-share market after the initial trend of the force, the momentum is gradually depleted, the current market is saw, and investors in the process of market waiting to wait and see and look for better admission2) In view of some uncertainties, such as recovery expectations, inflationary expectations and changes in market liquidity, the market is divided and investors are still waiting for clarity. (the author Department of Zhongyuan Securities Research Institute strategy analyst)