Acupuncture pain in China's economy

Recently, with the daily life of some people closely related to the price of necessities, some of the online folk words also came into being, such as "Beans You play", "garlic You ruthless", "Sugar Gao Zong" and so on. However, the appearance of these colloquial is mostly in the background of food price rise, and like "Coal Super Crazy" and eating unrelated to the colloquial is not very rare.　　A few days ago, saw a number of reports on cotton price increase, some regrets, feel that the word "cotton needle" to most reflect the fierce characteristics of cotton price inflation. As the name suggests, "Mian Li Needle" refers to the cotton wool inside the needle, carefully stabbed people. This year the domestic cotton price rising momentum is also like "Mian Li pin" that prick people. In fact, the cotton market at home and abroad this year are tight, the domestic cotton price continued 2009 years of gains, the mainland cotton seed prices per kilogram in 9.6 to 10.8 yuan, a record of nearly 10 years of history the highest price.　　The Shanghai Textile Industry Association data show that the previous period of time cotton sold prices have reached 25,000 yuan/ton, compared with last year's growth of nearly 80%, a 11-year high record. A series of factors contributed to the rise of cotton prices in the domestic market this year. For example, according to the USDA report released in early October this year, the global Cotton gap was 890,000 tonnes in 2010/2011. Supply tensions have led to rising cotton prices in the international market, and New York cotton futures prices have risen since late July and have risen nearly 70% per cent so far. It is not difficult to see that this year, the domestic cotton price increase is part of the reason that the international market cotton prices to the domestic market has a conductive effect. However, the international market factor is to promote domestic cotton price inflation exogenous variables, and the decisive factor to promote domestic cotton price inflation is due to a series of endogenous variables, such as the 2008-year market downturn led to the domestic cotton planting area reduced, the climate causes this year's simian listing postponed for some time,　　Factors such as the rising cost of cotton growing in China. It should be admitted that the presses of these endogenous variables and exogenous variables may increase the domestic cotton price, but it is not enough to cause the domestic cotton prices to soar so sharply. The reason, the current domestic cotton price inflation to a large extent from some speculative capital hoarding behavior. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange released data shows that as of October 25, cotton futures total position of 487300 hands, compared to the same day two months ago, the total position increased by 70%, indicating that funds are flowing in. No wonder, now the central Zooey a new policy to curb real estate prices, even through the imposition of property tax to the real estate market "tax shouting." Obviously, the housing market speculation, mung beans, ginger and other agricultural products are over, those restless hot money should also be in cotton to find the next hype target.　　Moreover, in the face of oil, coal, food, edible oil, vegetables, sugar and many other means of production and means of subsistence prices, the rise in cotton prices also reflects the parity effect under the "fill up" needs. Since this year, domestic cotton prices continued to rise, especially caused byCotton products Market is not a small impact, and the use of fashionable language is "serious consequences." Along with "Mian Li Needle" emerged, from cotton socks, cotton pajamas to just listed cotton clothes, the price all the way red. It is understood that some of the domestic cotton clothing prices have 10% to 20% of the increase. Now, for domestic cotton prices, although a lot, but the public response is not as strong as the rise in food prices. The reason for this is that almost everyone thinks that "people eat for the day" and that the status of "wearing" is ultimately difficult to match. Once upon a time, food stamps and cloth ticket were essential tickets for the Chinese people to live. However, the status of food stamps in the planned economy era seems to be stronger than cloth ticket. Very simple, in the people of the days of hardship, the lack of cloth ticket is the result of clothes broken, people have no face, and the lack of food stamps is the result of hungry belly.　　And belly is always more important than face. On the surface, it seems that the problem of wearing warm is not very prominent, but in fact, it is a misunderstanding. Judging from the historical process of building a well-off society in China today, the relationship between eating and wearing should also evolve with time. On the one hand "eat" does not simply mean to eat full belly, but also to solve the problem of good health. On the other hand, "wear" also does not simply mean to wear warm, but also to solve the problem of wearing beautiful.　　So it seems that between eating healthy and wearing beautiful, there is no one who is the day who is the problem, is very important.　　From the perspective of the use of two domestic and foreign markets, the sharp rise of cotton prices on the Chinese economy is not only reflected in the domestic consumption of this nerve, but also reflected in the export trade this nerve. China is the largest exporter of textile and apparel in the world today. In the background of economic globalization, with the expansion of textile and garment export scale, China's demand for cotton will be more and more. At present, the increase of cotton price has threatened the development of China's textile export trade, let the related enterprises overwhelmed. Cotton textile Enterprises in the cost of 60% to 70%, but as cotton prices continue to go higher, the recent domestic production and operation costs of textiles and clothing enterprises to further expand. From the latest Canton fair to understand that the rise in cotton prices have been on the export of textiles and garments have a negative impact. As the domestic exhibitors said: Now Cotton is a day price. Buyers have come a lot, but are hesitant. The price of the enterprise is also immediate price, big single, long list dare not to answer. What are the consequences? Unfortunately, the Chinese people, especially the coastal migrant workers. It should be seen that the textile and garment industry is one of the most employment-absorbing fields in China at this stage. If the textile and garment export scale has shrunk because of the cotton price soaring, many domestic peasant workers ' rice bowls will be problematic. It can be imagined that without a job, it is natural that "people take food as the day".　　In this sense, the surge in domestic cotton prices this year seems to have little to do with the basic lives of ordinary people, but in fact it is vital. Facing the "cotton needles" that sting the Chinese economy, the countryHome is certainly wary, but also has adopted a series of coping strategies, but the effect is still limited.　　It is understood that some time ago in the country to take out 15,000 tons of reserve cotton auction and constantly increase the import of cotton and Xinjiang cotton into the mainland dynamics, "Mian Li Needle" still sharp.　　The price of cotton rose, the sting is not only a certain nerve of China's economy, but the Chinese economy is a lot of nerves, the relevant departments should be as concerned about the rise in prices of cotton prices. (The author is deputy director of international Market Research Department of the Ministry of Trade and Economic Cooperation)