China worries: Global inflation expectations exacerbate a a-share first into a bubble summer?

The general rise in the peripheral markets before the festival has become an important peripheral force for a strong surge in China's a-share June 1. Earlier, the Dow Jones industrial average rebounded from 6,547 points on March 9 to the current 8,500 point, continuing to rise 29.8%; the financial FTSE 100 rose to 3,530 from 4,487 on March 6, with a cumulative rebound of 27.1%.　　The Nikkei 225 index has rebounded 37.2% from its March lows, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 31% from the end of 2008. Is the day, Shen Rose 2.9%, Shanghai Composite Index strength rose 3.36%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 3.57%.　　Meanwhile, both the Nikkei 225 and the Hong Kong Hang Seng index rose strongly, by 1.63% and 3.95% respectively. "If we simply look at domestic liquidity, it can be said that China's a-share valuation drive has been spent, but with the continued depreciation of the dollar, the surrounding market liquidity significant release, at this time to talk about a A-share bubble when the trend of suspension is premature."　　"The head of a Shanghai securities firm is so prepared to judge the trend of China's a-share market." and a big investment fund manager in Beijing on the Chinese stock market trend is more outspoken, "as the century-old global financial crisis, we are now facing a century of global inflation, in the global economic recovery and liquidity spread of the double expectations of the intertwined role, The Chinese stock market and even the global stock market will enter a full-blown bubble summer.　　"Green shoots on the global economic stump. The global economic recovery has injected a fundamental impetus into the global recovery, as U.S. officials and economists have recently pointed out that the global economy is showing signs of recovery and green shoots are emerging on the shoots.　　The global economic analysis of the worst of the world's economic past, and the expected return of inflation, was released recently by the macro research group on National Maritime Securities, which made clear that the worst of the global economy was over.　　According to its analysis, the April U.S. economic leading indicators (LEI) ended 7 months of continued decline, from March 98.0 to 99.0 of April level. At a time when the worst of the global economy is already in the past, the Ted spreads, which reflect the most important risk measures of international financial markets for 3 months, the difference between the interbank market rate in London and the 3-month US Treasury bond rate have accelerated since the end of April, from 0.89% in late April to 0.48% in May 22 Resumed to May 2007 levels.　　The drop in spreads reflects a sharp drop in the risk of a banking system, lower interbank borrowing costs and a reduction in corporate borrowing costs. While the worst of the global economy has been largely a consensus in the past, from current economic data, the April economic situation has been significantly improved than March, but the signal of the recovery is still weak, the U.S. economy has not moved to a real recovery. China Sea Securities Macro group to make this judgment reason such as GH: one is risingThe personal savings rate and the unemployment rate are constraining the growth of American consumption, and the second is that the high U.S. real estate inventory will curb real estate investment, third, low productivity will constrain future capital investment, four is credit, the bank still tightens to real estate, business and personal loan. However, the head of the Shanghai Securities Institute, the chief executive, thinks there are two root causes for the intrinsic power of China's stock market to continue to soar.　　One is the location of Shanghai real estate sales data and structure changes, the second is to represent the domestic important consumer demand of the car market high prosperity. According to its research, Shanghai real estate sales situation is much better than expected, not only the first half of the volume has been a considerable positive change, but also represents high-end demand for high commercial housing sales accounted for the total volume of real estate market share of a sharp rise.　　In April, Shanghai's high-priced housing sales rose by 30% per cent a quarter, suggesting that the surge in demand in the real estate market has not been explained by the concentrated release of pent-up demand in the early period, which is booming in Shanghai's real estate market, whether rigid or investment-demand. In addition, Shanghai's car sales are much more popular than expected.　　The owner had previously thought that the auto market might be related to the tax subsidy policy for car purchases, a short-lived low-end demand, but as the market is active, many of the imported brands representing high-end consumption are increasingly selling, or even out of stock. He stressed that "the economic phenomenon around us shows that the speed and intensity of China's economic recovery is much better than the market expectations, especially the implementation of the National 4 trillion stimulus plan, the real gold and silver investment after the growth of China's economy will be further enhanced." Therefore, China's stock market simply rely on liquidity-driven first band has ended, the next step in the performance of listed companies will be substantially improved with ample liquidity to jointly drive the rise of the index. "China's stock market worries" past a-share of the rebound let us appreciate the CPI paradigm (capital, policy policy, recovery illusion illusion) surging and surging, when the time entered the May end of 2009, a A-share contest became no longer so good-looking, intermission, Paradigm lost we seem to have to study the new game rules ――ppi mechanism (performance performance, psychological psychology, system institutions). "The above is the biggest concern for China stock market trends in June," said Xiaoyanming, senior research Fellow of the National Securities Union. Shaw believes that the IPO restart of the "boots" hung, look at the real recovery of performance, large stocks of the pre-Kai also Hugh, small and not intensive reduction and cautious public opinion index dragged a A shares into the risk area, is expected to June will be the end of the stock market valuation bubble, return to the value standard of the month, this is a necessary intermission.　　and the transformation direction after the depth of development, will be a wide oscillation of the plot to transition. Similarly, Guotai strategy researcher Wang, who is cautious about China's a-share market trend in June, also told reporters that "the market performance of a Chinese A shares cannot be understood." ”Earlier, Wang and his team clearly identified the IPO restart is the beginning of the mid-term adjustment to accelerate the opportunity. The main reason for this is that the reduction of the non-tradable value of the market increases. If the proportion of the total size of the reduction is 8% and 40% (the cumulative value since July last year), then 22.9 billion shares (or about 258.6 billion) of the stock is waiting to reduce the opportunity. If this part of the lifting unit in 12 months sold out, it means 21.6 billion/month funding needs. In addition to the June may be reduced by more than 25 billion of the new lifting funds (in accordance with the overall reduction since last July 17%). And the proportion of the reduction will be increased with the market valuation, is expected to be the same or will absorb more than 50 billion/month of funds, is still the main reason for the shortage of funds.　　Generally speaking, there is a certain pressure on the market capital face. "Lurking, only for the next round of bubbles," This is the May investment strategy proposed by Xiaoyanming.