Experts: Two sets of mortgage rules to accelerate the arrival of inflection point

Two sets of housing loans to determine the standard is mainly reflected in three points. First, the family unit. The first one is "to be determined by the number of households (including borrowers, spouses and minor children) who are actually in possession of the house." "According to people, or by family, the two are very disparity in tightness."　　Back in September 2007, "Two sets of mortgage" policy after the first introduction, in this regard, commercial banking practices, the industry debate, forced, three months after the central bank and the CBRC issued a "patch file", clearly defined as a home unit. Second, recognize both "room" and "loan". "State 10" after the introduction of all types of commercial banks in all categories of mortgages have raised the threshold to varying degrees, but in the most important second suite of the determination of the standard, the individual. Some banks are determined by the number of dwellings currently owned by borrowers, while some banks have been bought by borrowers who have used their loans.　　Both of these standards, no matter which kind, is not too strict; from the point of view of restraining investors ' demand, it is more reasonable to "borrow" according to the "room" comparison, because some families with better needs, the first housing has already used the loan, and now want to sell the existing housing, and replace a bigger and better house. In the fourth quarter of 2007-the first half of 2008, two mortgages were recognized as "rooms", not "loans". However, this time, the "room", and "credit", the policy hit the face is very large, not only inhibited the investment speculative demand, but also catch the need to improve the needs of the housing. In addition, as in the past, only the banking regulatory department to make a mortgage policy, the Department of Housing and Urban and rural construction departments in conjunction with the central bank and the CBRC to study and introduce policies. The secret is that the Housing Management department has a residential property data, if there is no co-ordination, only the banking sector with resident loan information, can not be "room" to set the loan ——— This is also the previous two sets of mortgage policy can not strictly implement one of the important reasons.　　Moreover, the notice also explicitly: 2010 before the end of the city to establish a basic housing registration information system. Third, restrictions on foreign investment in speculative housing demand. There are two levels of restrictions in the policy. First floor: "For non-local residents who cannot provide proof of local tax certificate or social insurance payment for more than 1 years, the lender is executed according to the second (and above) differential housing loan policy." "This one is for the whole country, which is for the large number of foreign investment in the one or two-line cities in recent years, speculative demand, especially the Wenzhou fried Housing Group, means that the threshold and cost of loans significantly increased."　　This will make the market demand of all hot cities nationwide will be adversely affected. The end result is that the price inflection point will accelerate. April, the national price of 70 cities in March Rose 1.4%, May quarter-on-quarter increase will quickly narrowed, June is likely to close to zero growth, the probability of negative growth in July is great. 2008 that round of the property market adjustment, after 8 months or so, this index has been negative growth, and this year is not so long. As to when housing prices will stop falling, still need to pay attention to the two housing policywill be loosened in the fourth quarter of this year. (Yang Hongxu/deputy Director of Shanghai Institute of Yi Ju)