Fitch sees 9.1% negative growth in Hong Kong's economy as the most pessimistic data in institutional forecasts

Maintain AA rating unchanged next year 1.2% our correspondent: Jensi in spite of the narrowing of the decline in exports and the rebound in the economic recovery in the mainland last month, Fitch, the rating agency, yesterday slashed its forecast of economic growth to 9.1% per cent, the most pessimistic forecast of the current one. Fitch also estimates a slight increase of 1.2% per cent next year. At the same time, Fitch stressed that Hong Kong's sovereign rating would not be lowered as a result of the economic downturn, maintaining a AA rating and a stable rating outlook. 　　James McCormack, managing director of Fitch's Asia-Pacific sovereign rating, said that the government's fiscal "exceptionally robust" ("exceptional strong"), even if the economic downturn and issue of official debt, was sufficient to support a stable outlook on sovereign ratings. In a comment after Fitch's Asia Pacific Forum on Sovereignty and banking ratings yesterday, Fitch said it lowered its economic forecast for Hong Kong this week from its original contraction of 6.4% to a contraction of 9.1% per cent, mainly because a sharp drop in exports would have a major impact on our economy, and I believe the government has limited access to it. The improvement in Hong Kong's exports depends on when Europe and the US economy recovers. 　　However, Mike's name stressed that Hong Kong's economy is not the worst in comparison with other markets in the region, such as Singapore's economy will have a negative growth of more than 12% this year. The resignation does not affect the rating "economic growth data does not necessarily affect the sovereign rating", Mack said Fitch would not downgrade Hong Kong's sovereign rating at the same time, because sovereign ratings can go through economic cycles, and Fitch will not downgrade a region's sovereign rating just because of economic growth or contraction. 　　He stressed that, relative to the economic growth figures, Fitch is more important in considering the government's fiscal position, and that the government's fiscal position is excellent, and that even if the economy is now in a downward cycle, the government will still have a new debt-issuing scheme to support its stable rating outlook. In addition to the low government indebtedness, Fitch currently gives Hong Kong AA a sovereign rating, and our advantage lies in a reputable link system and a sound banking system. Will the "founder" of the SEHK and the outgoing chief executive of the HKMA, Mr Joseph Yam, affect Hong Kong's financial market and even its sovereign rating? 　　"The Hong Kong link system is not based on who is the chief executive of the HKMA but has been institutionalized ("institutional-backed") and has shown strong commitment to the system, and I believe that the link will not change in the near future," said Mr Mack. Hong Kong bank profits fell this year, Ma Dawei David Marshall, managing director of Fitch International Asia-Pacific financial institutions, believes that Hong Kong's banks will have a lower profit this year. Ma Dawei said the narrowing of net interest rates would have a certain impact on bank profitability, but the "culprit" for the decline in profits this year would be the rising cost of credit. 　　He said that Fitch was closely monitoring the future credit losses of banks in Hong Kong because Hong Kong enterprises, especially those in the mainland, which had more cross-border operations, were losing their ability to repay their debts, which caused losses to banks and even swallowed up all operating income. The bank expected that the Hong Kong silverProfit growth will fall from about 1.25% last year to about 0.6%. Institutions to adjust GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong this year