Guo Hai Securities: concussion upward is still the main tone

Securities Times reporter into the recent news of the State Sea securities issued a "share of the real recovery before the capital feast" 2009 A-Share investment strategy report.　　Guo Hai Securities that the second half of our economy will continue to recover, the second half and next year, the central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy; the second half of this year will continue to shock upward, the Shanghai Composite Index operating range at 2800-3800 points. For the second half of the macro-economy, the report that China's strong fiscal and monetary credit policy to stimulate economic growth, the bottom of the economic adjustment has emerged, the second half of our economy will continue to recover. At the same time, global liquidity will trigger moderate inflation. Expected domestic demand factors will push prices out of negative growth, CPI year-on-year growth may reach about 0.8% of the level. From the price year-on-year and the chain situation, the United States, Europe and Japan are still in the process of deflation, out of deflation is still the central bank's main policy objectives. But the effect of the global central bank's easing monetary policy is beginning to show. Gold prices in three currencies have risen, and commodity prices, such as oil and copper, have rebounded, which is the result of currency devaluations, and a reflection of falling inventories and rising demand. Therefore, if the economy continues to rebound, the early fall in commodity prices will be strong support, the current policy objectives are being achieved.　　The report argues that moderate inflation helps the economy recover and that the stock market is rising. After this year's rally, most of the shares have been lower to double, and even a number of stocks have returned to last year's 6,000 point price, the market "fear of high" mood. Therefore, the overall valuation of the market is always a worry, the report through a a-share market valuation Structural analysis found that the A-share market overall valuation is reasonable, only a structural overvaluation. Statistics show that the top ten shares accounted for the total net profit of 60.89%, 42.34% of the total market value, weighted average P/E ratio is only 20.05 times times, the stock ratio of less than 25 times times the shares, although only 14.19% of the total number of shares, but accounted for the total net profit of 91.42%, the total market value of　　These 14.19% stocks are highly concentrated on behalf of the economic barometer of the blue chip and performance growth stocks, with the economic recovery, these weights will be expected to push the market center of gravity further up. Comprehensive look, for the second half of the market state-Sea securities hold a relatively optimistic attitude.　　The report said that a large number of liquidity released in the first half of the boom in the market, looking forward to the second half, is expected to continue the first half of the situation continues to shock upward. First, the underlying determinants of the first-half market operation have not changed.　　At present, the central bank will continue to maintain the main tone of growth for its monetary policy premise, the second half will remain loose monetary policy and active fiscal policy, there is a small rate of tightening measures such as the possibility of a little, and low interest rates will bring the market a higher valuation premium. Second, China's stock market is a typical policy city, and the shares of state-owned enterprisesMarket capitalisation is nearly 80%.　　During the crisis rescue period, the strong policy of a A-shares staged strong operation constitutes a support.　　Third, the release of a large amount of liquidity will enhance the performance of banks and resource stocks, while the energy and metals industry net profit accounted for the total net profit of all listed companies 73.1%, the second half of the performance of listed companies is expected to rebound quickly. Therefore, the report that the concussion will still be the second half of the market operation of the main tone, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to run the range of 2800-3800 points, corresponding to the 2009-year P/E ratio of 23.5-34.64 times times.