Hot money Dark Chung people started the battle

IMF share third dialectics China's right to speak has a big boost to monetary policy or greater pressure the International Monetary Fund's recent reform package shows China's share and voting rights ranked third in the sixth, after the US and Japan. While China has gained a share of its rights, it also means that it will assume greater responsibility.　　In the run-up to the G20 summit this month and the currency war still clouded, analysts say the rise in "responsibility" may make the renminbi, at a crossroads, face new variables.　　Yesterday, Zhejiang University of Finance and economics professor Xu Min, Zhejiang University International Economic and trade Associate Professor Feng Jin, into the newspaper "financial three" news studio, and we talked about China in the IMF to obtain a third vote right behind the merits, and analysis of currency war clouds, ordinary people how to optimistic about their own money bags. The term explains how the share of the IMF is distributed: the share of the IMF membership is based on economic indicators such as GDP, current income and foreign exchange reserves.　　Member States are required to pay the IMF according to their share, but at the same time they are given a proportional vote, the right to use the funds, and the IMF's Special drawing Rights for international currencies (SDR). A What is the third core meaning of the IMF's discourse right? Lord: Before the G20 Seoul Summit, the IMF decided that China's share of voting power would rise to 6.394%, ranking from sixth to third. The media commented that it was a historic decision, from sixth to third, what does it mean for us to rise to the right of speech? What is the practical meaning of this "right to speak"?　　Compared with the developed countries in Europe and the United States, China's current voting rights to achieve a reasonable proportion? Xu Min: The media commented that the "historic decision" was not exaggerated, such a drastic adjustment is the second time since the IMF's inception, the last was a dollar reform after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, which substantially increased the share of OPEC, a manifestation of a greater rise in the discourse power of emerging countries after the financial crisis.　　, such as the BRIC countries all entering the top 10, also reflects the current international economic situation. Although the adjustment has not shaken America's "decision" pattern, despite comments that the rise in the share of China's monetary policy pressure, but it should be seen that China can not afford such a "responsibility", and China's "rebalancing" responsibility is not a bad thing, as an opportunity to achieve a more balanced import and export balance,　　It's good for both home and abroad. Feng Jin: China's voice in the IMF has increased, but symbolic significance is greater than practical significance.　　The IMF's aim is to address global economic imbalances, which now seem largely ineffective, and the international financial order remains dominated by several developed countries, and structural imbalances are still not improving. In a positive sense, the rise in the right to speak also has practical significance, as the IMF rules that Member States lend to the IMF, which cannot exceed 300% per cent of their share, so the increase in the number of words means that China's access to loans from the IMF can beTo increase, the number of SDRs can also increase, which is the most important practical benefit.　　At the same time, the vote on important issues in the IMF, with an increase in the number of words, an increase in voting rights, and an increase in the number of votes, although 6.394% seems to do nothing, is enhanced by the ability to express opinions with other members on a particular issue. Inflation expectations strengthen the government's resolve: The Fed's decisions are affecting the nation's dining table. Ma sister-in-law every day the main work is in the vicinity of the major market and supermarkets, compare prices for the family to purchase necessities, but rice, oil, pork, vegetables continue to increase prices, let Ma sister-in-law feel a little living expenses.　　This has to do with the Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing, which is aimed at further stimulating the recovery of the US economy, which has sown the seeds of hyperinflation by "flooding" the money market. Xu min: Inflation is no longer a problem.　　The renminbi's situation is internal devaluation, foreign appreciation, export good, but bring a large number of hot money into the market, domestic inflation has not been resolved, hot money entry and import of inflation brings about continued pressure. The latest figures also point to inflation, which rose 4.4% per cent year-on-year in October, with a trade surplus of 27.1 billion dollars in October, and 10.22 billion dollars more than September, again exceeding market expectations.　　Even though the central bank raised interest rates for the fifth time in a row, people struggled to get rid of negative interest rates, which were 1.9% higher than the one-year household savings rate, or 1.9%. In the face of inflation, the people to cover up the money bag, the government is actively seeking to resolve the policy. Since paper money is a management standard, Central bank management plays a vital role in the stability of the currency, and no unit of economic activity in the market has the ability to make decisions.　　Therefore, in the face of domestic liquidity surplus, the government must make a decision to tighten the monetary policy before the severe inflation situation has a more serious negative impact, so tightening will be the main tone of macro-control for some time to come. Fung Jin: In the past two years, the domestic continuous release of liquidity, resulting in asset bubbles, and the consumer market, such as the recent speculation of agricultural products.　　This is also the main feature of this round of inflation, that is, hyperinflation, the main factor in price increases are food prices and residential prices. Central banks have been printing money, the most critical period of social security system has arrived. Moderate lower GDP index, to cool the overheated economy, although there will be a rise in unemployment, but can be absorbed by raising social Security to digest, as can ensure social stability, so the current reform and improve the social security system at the time, the improvement of social security, will give people a stable security expectations, and thus enhance consumer confidence, At the same time can also achieve a complete transformation of social development.　　Therefore, the proper breeding of lazy, may be the best choice at present. C for inbound hot money with what "pool" circle the main: financial crisis, so that people learn a lot of unfamiliar words, such as "hot money." A few days ago, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said that for inbound hot money, China couldMeasures to take total hedging. In other words, if the short-term speculative funds inflow, through this measure to put it in the "pool", and will not be allowed to flood the entire Chinese real economy. When it needs to retreat, release it from the pool and let it go. This will greatly reduce the impact of abnormal capital flows on China's economy.　　The market widely commented: What "pool" circle of hot money? Xu min: There is no inevitable correlation between hot money and inflation. But further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will lead to inflows of hot money into emerging economies ' capital markets, bringing imported inflation to the emerging market economy. Raising interest rates is a "sharp weapon" against inflation, but the central banks of emerging countries should be cautious.　　Emerging markets should adopt reasonable and orderly monetary tightening policies to deal with hot money inflows and consider measures such as allowing appropriate appreciation of local currencies and intervening in currency markets. For the common people, the allocation of gold is now the best choice for wealth preservation, but the current high price of precious metals in the history of the highest level, investors had better choose to buy when the gold correction; prudent financial products should become the main choice of ordinary people, saving mainly, supplemented by risk-oriented financial products,　　However, different types of investors should choose their own financial products according to their own capital scale, stop-loss ratio, risk preference and so on, so as to ensure the maximization of profits by reasonable asset allocation and reducing risk. Fung Jin: Building a pool of hot money is the most ideal state, the actual operation is very difficult. The most important response to inflation is monetary policy instruments, but in the current situation, the negative impact of the rate hike is to accelerate hot money inflows, because the increase in interest rate increases the value of the renminbi, so that spreads at home and abroad have been pulled up, coupled with the West's low interest rates or even 0 interest rate policies and quantitative easing, so that the dollar and other currencies　　These hot money will certainly go to the currency appreciation of Asia, especially the renminbi is rapidly appreciating China. Measures, that is, the adoption of statutory reserve requirements and interest-rate instruments multi-pronged approach to moderate intervention in the foreign exchange market and the trend of the renminbi. Strengthen the management of foreign exchange settlement, investigate illegal funds into China, blocking the hot money into China's channel. Raising interest rates, raising reserve requirements and restraining hot money from entering China are three effective measures to deal with inflation at present.