Hot Money's attitude is heat: the distribution around inflation

Financial Weekly reporter Zhang Weixiang/Wen, whether a a-share or H-shares, have been out of a magnificent market, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 200多 points, about 8%, and the index has also been up 2000多 points, about 10%.　　In fact, as early as September this year, when the US is about to introduce another quantitative easing, the U.S. stock and peripheral markets are showing signs of imminent launch. In the October, QE was expected to diverge from emerging markets.　　Norman, the chief executive of the Hong Kong HKMA, which had not seen hot money inflows in early October, said half a month later he expressed concern about the rapid influx of hot money into Hong Kong and the announcement of Hong Kong's policy of suspending home purchases to qualify for Hong Kong's investment in immigration as a new asset bubble to curb Hong Kong's imminent upsurge. Indeed, in a way, Hong Kong is only a transit point for capital inflows into the vast Chinese market.　　As early as a few months ago, when a reporter interviewed Li Jin, a director of the global derivatives division of France-Hing Securities, he said the premium between the mainland a-share and H-shares was related to the allocation of Chinese stocks by foreign investment banks.　　As many investment banks do not have sufficient qfii quotas, they can only buy the related H shares in Hong Kong, resulting in a significant rise in Hong Kong dollar-denominated H shares over a-share, of which the H shares of banks, insurance and resource stocks are 15% higher than the shares. Today, although the mainland's a-share price has also risen, but the premium of the above plate stocks remain between 10% to 15%.　　Similar to the operation Logic of the mainland a-share market, Hong Kong's many qfii, brokerage and investment bankers also believe that the concept of inflation and the appreciation of the renminbi will be the next fourth quarter and next year for a period of investment line. However, compared with the short-term speculative opportunities that domestic brokerages appreciate the renminbi, Hong Kong's investment circle is more likely to invest in the medium and long term investment opportunities, a rich financial asset Management director of Asia Pacific's best fund manager, Huang, told reporters that resources stocks related to the concept of inflation would have a certain chance of performance in the coming period.　　, even the dormant housing stocks may have better performance. Inflation continues to push the investment market this May, when reporters exchanged with investment executives from China Merchants Securities Hong Kong, he said the future CPI would be close to 3%. Synchronized with the recent central bank interest rate hike, the domestic CPI has broken the 3% mark.　　Chang Kin, analyst at Barclays Capital China Economic Research department, told reporters that in the first two weeks of October CPI would rise further from 3.6% in September to around 4%, and that CPI would continue to rise as the mainland's strong GDP growth in the third quarter. Chang Kin that the mainland's GDP growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, confirming a policy-led slowdown that bottomed out in August. The most likely goal of the central bank's interest rate hike is to stabilize property prices, reduce the risk of asset bubbles and lock in inflationary expectations in the event of negative real interest rates and rising capital inflows. He expects the central bank to raise interest rates again in the first half of next year and perhaps continue to use quantitative tools, while industrial production and fixed asset investmentCapital may fall unexpectedly, retail sales will rise. In fact, inflationary expectations have already affected the investment decisions of a Hong Kong brokerage, which ranks food, roads, consumption and gold stocks as the most worthy investment. Mr Cheah, president of Hong Kong's "King of funds", has been on the mainland for the first time in June this year, with a cumulative gain of 4 times times within 4 months, and he has yet to show signs of shipments.　　As for the gold stocks, China Merchants Securities Hong Kong's fund pool has been holding gold shares, and obtained a lot of profits. Financial stocks are benefiting from the concept of inflation, even though consumer stocks, which have long been the concern of investors, have been a lot of qfii. Li Ming out, managing director of JPMorgan Chase and head of China Research, said the cement and department stores in a shares had potential, and that many stocks would have a long, 2007-year trend, as the mainland's demand for both categories was large.　　In addition, the consumer unit will become the fourth quarter and next year's hot spot, among them the automobile stock, the clothing stock has many investment opportunities. Li Ming out, a former auto industry analyst, argues that the mainland auto industry is in a period of high growth and that overall sales will increase as China's per capita car ownership grows.　　At the same time, rising wages in the mainland will also become a powerful driver of the consumer unit's performance, Li Ming out said, the mainland's necessities and cheap non-essential consumption even during the financial tsunami did not stagnate, as people's consumption level, the release of consumption potential, the space is very large consumer stocks. Chen Feng, a Hong Kong management person, said in the next two quarters will be the most closely related to inflation of the plate, in addition to real estate, financial, non-ferrous and resource stocks can be duly noted, and the concept of appreciation of the renminbi will continue to appear investment opportunities, which, aviation and paper, the operating opportunities are more obvious,　　And a shares overall will show a small return of the characteristics of the adjustment will not affect a A-share future rise, the space is very large, this is mainly because the mainland's industrial upgrading and the continued improvement of the economy, will enhance investor confidence.　　In fact, the number of investors interviewed by the Hong Kong Investment Insider's view of the A-share market, the basic emphasis to follow the policy, there are "fine price shares female investor", said the West Beijing Investment company chairman long-time said must follow the policy to select shares.　　JP Morgan, managing director, Li Ulrich, China's securities and Commodities chairman, believes there are three trends in the future of China's investment environment, one is that the economic growth model will shift from government investment to personal consumption, the second is urbanization in China, and the government will raise residents ' consumption confidence by raising wages, reducing taxes and expanding Social security. Therefore, in this context, the consumer stocks have investment opportunities, with new energy, high energy saving, new technology-related stocks have investment opportunities, and regional development of stocks also have investment opportunities.