Jing Ulrich: Economic recovery can be broken 3200

June 30, JP Morgan, managing director and China Securities Market Chairman Jing Ulrich, said that in the future domestic demand, real estate investment and many other factors led to the economic recovery can continue, the Shanghai Composite Index can break through 3,200 points in the year.　　The economic recovery is sustainable. Ms Ulrich believes that the current economic recovery is sustainable, given that the current economic growth point is mainly domestic end-market demand (such as the rebound in markets such as housing and automobiles) and the government's underlying investment stimulus. She explained that the strong demand for the terminal to accelerate the inventory, companies will be "forced" by the market production, and thus promote economic recovery. But the substantial improvement in corporate profits will not be reflected until 2010 years. In the one or two quarter of this year, China's economy has rebounded, and this year GDP growth can reach 8%.　　In the first half, both PPI and CPI were negative, indicating that the economy was in a deflationary period and that PPI and CPI would be positive in the second half. ' Personal consumption has grown steadily in recent years, ' Ms. Ulrich said. In the context of declining exports and weak global demand, China's domestic demand has been remarkably effective. 　　This year, China will become the world's largest car market, selling more than the United States. Jing Ulrich also believes that the real estate market has just been restored for several months, has not yet entered a bubble period. Fixed assets investment accounted for 43% of the entire economy, real estate accounted for 25% of the total investment, real estate accounted for 10% of the total GDP, so real estate performance, development trend of GDP growth has a very direct impact. The housing rally is now outpacing market expectations, both as a result of lax credit policies and driven by inflationary expectations. In some big cities, the real estate transaction volume, the price has exceeded 2007 year the highest point.　　In recent weeks, some large real estate developers actively buy land, after buying land to build a new house, building a new house will pull a series of industries, including cement, steel, construction, decoration, home appliances and so on. Export or recovery next year Ulrich believes that there is still no way to see the export back to stability. China's exports to the developed world account for 50% of the total exports.　　If the economies of these countries do not recover, China's exports will still be very directly affected, and China's export recovery could take 2010 years. For January-May, China's imports of copper, aluminum, iron ore and other minerals have hit a record high, Jing Ulrich believes that this economic recovery stimulated production demand, there are many domestic and foreign prices upside down speculative inventory. The main reasons for the rapid growth of copper imports include: the development of power grids, automobiles and 3G networks have increased the demand for copper in China; in the first half of 2009, China's purchases of copper increased. Copper spreads between Europe and China were at least 1000 dollars/ton. In addition, the import of original aluminum quote than the domestic spot price of 50-300 yuan per ton, arbitrage disk also push high aluminum imports. The big increase in China's imports of coal is mainly a dispute over coal power, forcing electricity companies to open up overseas purchases of coal. This may lead to a high inventory of commodities, and inventory digestion takes some time. So the next few months include the growth in China's imports of commodities in 7 AugustWill fall back. Shanghai index is expected to attack 3,200 points Ms Ulrich believes that the pace of stock market rebound is indeed surprising.　　In the second half of the year, JPMorgan has adjusted its forecast for a-share index from 3,000 points to 3,200. She said that in the short term, the stock market will have the concussion, does not rule out the small adjustment possibility. One is because the stock market has rebounded 60% or so, and the second is that the IPO restart may have some impact on market liquidity, third is a a-share price-earnings ratio of about 23 times times, more expensive than Hong Kong.　　But in the long run, China's stock market has great potential. Jing Ulrich believes that as China's economy begins its recovery ahead of other markets around the world, there are also more overseas institutions bullish on the Chinese economy, and the Hong Kong market is the focus of international investors. Although the shares ' premium to h shares narrowed from 63.64% on February 17 to 38.62% on June 25, the lower valuations of Hong Kong stocks are still enough to attract investors. There are no signs of a massive outflow of money from Hong Kong, and H-shares will remain strong, so even if there is a technical adjustment, it will not be very large.